同步练习9-项目风险管理

• 1. A customer has given you a contract statement of work for a complex,eight month project that has a few unknowns. The customer has asked you to just "get it done" and only wants to see you at the end of eight months when you deliver the finished project.Under these circumstances, which of the following is the BEST thing to do?

A. Complete the project as requested, but verify its scope with the customer occasionally throughout.

B. Complete the project within eight months without contacting the customer during this time.

C. Ask management to check in with the customer occasionally.

D. Complete the project, but document that the customer did not want contact.

某个客户给你提供了某个复杂的、8个月的、只有少量未知的项目的合同工作说明书。客户要求你需要“完成它”只希望在8个月后看你交付最终的项目。在这种情况下，最好应该做什么?

A．完成被要求的项目，和客户随时验证范围

B．在不联系客户的情况下，在8个月内完成项目

C．要求管理层和客户随时检查

D．完成项目，记录下来客户不想联系

A

解释：如果客户不参与，会导致项目范围或成果不符合客户要求；为应对此风险，可以要求客户进行范围核实；选项B是被动接受；选项D不能解决问题；选项C没有说明项目经理的责任。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 2. You have just been assigned as the project manager for a new telecommunications project that is entering the second phase of the project. There appear to be many risks on this project, but no one has evaluated them to assess the range of possible project outcomes. What needs to be done?

A. Risk management planning

B. Quantitative risk analysis

C. Plan Risk Responses

D. Risk monitoring and control

你刚刚被分配为某个新的电信项目的项目经理，该项目已经进入第二阶段。项目出现了些风险，没有人评估它们的概率和对项目的产出。你需要做什么?

A．风险管理规划

B．定量风险分析

C．规划风险应对

D．监控风险

A

解释：题干表明，这个团队没有人进行风险管理，所以首先进行风险管理规划来确定如何管理项目的风险。参考：PMBOK2008 P276。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 3. While preparing your risk responses, you identify additional risks. What should you do?

A. Add reserves to the project to accommodate the new risks and notify management.

B. Document the risk items and calculate the expected monetary value based on probability and impact that result from the occurrences.

C. Determine the risk events and the associated cost, then add the cost to the project budget as a reserve.

D. Add a 10 percent contingency to the project budget and notify the customer

在准备风险应对期间，你识别了额外的风险，你应该做什么?

A．添加储备到项目应对新风险，通知管理层

B．记录风险内容，根据概率和发生时的影响结果来计算预期货币值

C．确定风险事件和相关的成本，然后追加成本作为储备金到项目预算中

D．添加1 O％的应急储备到项目预算，通知客户

B

解释：对新识别的风险首先进行风险分析，然后再考虑应对策略。只有选项B是在做分析。参考：PMBOK2008 CH P298。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 4. The cost performance index (CPI) of a project is 0.6 and the schedule performance index (SPI) is 0.71. The project has 625 work packages and is being completed over a four year period. The team members are very inexperienced and the project received little support for proper planning. Which of the following is the BEST thing to do?

A. Update risk identification and analysis.

B. Spend more time improving the cost estimates.

C. Remove as many work packages as possible.

D. Reorganize the responsibility assignment matrix.

项目成本绩效指数是0．6；进度绩效指数是0-71。项目有625个工作包，预计在4年完成。项目团队成员非常缺乏经验，规划时项目得到很少的支持，下列哪个是最应该做的?

A．更新风险识别和分析

B．花更多时间改进成本估算

C．尽可能移除工作包

D．改组责任分配矩阵

A

解释：题干表明项目有很大的风险，所以需要重新识别和分析风险。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 5. Which technique has been applied to Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis?

A. Decision tree

B. P/I matrix

C. Strategic scoring

D. Risk breakdown structure

下列哪个技术用于定量风险分析?

A．决策树

B．P／I矩阵

C．战略得分

D．风险分解结构

A

解释：决策树常和EMV共同使用，用于风险定量分析中。参考：PMBOK2008 P298。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 6. You are running a project to engineer and implement a set of business processes and a software solution for Customer relationship management. The project involves a big number of performing organizations--a major corporation and many suppliers of different size. During the project you observed a restraining effect of differences between the companies' corporate cultures. This leads to different expectations on how such a project should be handled and to frequent misunderstandings between stakeholders.Another effect is a growing degree of distrust and skepticism. What should you try first to integrate the diverse stakeholder groups?

A. Focus on project work. As a project manager you should not get distracted by big egos.

B. Let the problems grow further until they are obvious for all. Then escalate them.

C. Develop a joint quality policy for the project and seek commitment by all organizations.

D. Analyze probability and impact of the risks linked with the situation and plan how to respond to them.

你在负责一个项目，该项目涉及设计和实施一系列商业过程和客户关系管理软件解决方案。项目包括大量的执行组织一主公司和不同位置的供应商。项目期间你观察到介于不同公司之间不同的组织文化。这导致对项目如何控制出现不同期望，而且频繁在干系人之间出现误解。另外出现的结果是不断增加的不信任和怀疑。在整合不同干系人群体时首先应该做什么?

A．关注于项目工作，作为项目经理不能因为大量的自负而心烦意乱

B．让问题继续成长直到它们非常明显，然后解决它们

C．为项目开发整合的质量政策，获得所有组织的承诺

D．分析与这种情形相关的风险的概率和影响，然后作出如何应对的计划

C

解释：当项目牵涉到多个组织时，项目管理团队需要开发质量政策，来获得所有组织的共识。参考：PMBOK2008 P194。 （2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 7. When is passive risk acceptance an appropriate approach?

A. When the likeliness of risk occurrence is very low.

B. When the risk occurrence is hard to identify.

C. When it is best to deal with a risk as it occurs.

D. When the risk cannot be assessed or analyzed.

什么时候被动的接受是合适的风险应对方法?

A．风险出现的可能性很低的时候

B．风险的发生很难识别的时候

C．最好在风险发生时再应对的时候

D．风险不能被评估或分析的时候

C

解释：被动的接受表明现在什么都不作，当风险发生时再进行应对。参考：PMBOK2008 P304。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 8. During Planning processes, you used Monte-Carlo simulation to quantitatively assess cost and schedule risks of your project. Now, during Risk monitoring and control, you repeat the technique, and it leads to different results. What should not be the reason for that?

A. Some assumptions during planning have meanwhile become fact-based knowledge, so that the risks related to them have vanished or have become certain problems.

B. New risks may have been identified. These influence the input data used for Monte-Carlo simulation in a way which was not predictable at the time when the simulation was run.

C. Some constraints have been identified originally, but their influence on the project was unclear when the simulation was run for the first time. By now, the team understands these constraints much better and could adjust the simulation.

D. Some dummy activities in the network logic have an element of uncertainty, which gets bigger over time. While the project proceeds, it is getting even harder to predict how the team members assigned to them will perform.

在规划过程组，你使用蒙特卡罗模拟来数量上评估你项目的成本和进度风险。现在，在监控风险期问，你重新使用此技术，导致了不同的结果。下列哪个不是出现这种情形的原因?

A．一些假设在计划期间会变成基于事实的知识，所以相关的风险会消失，或者变成确定的问题

B．新风险可能被识别，这将影响到使用蒙特卡罗技术的输入导致模拟进行中出现不可预知的情形

C．最初识别的一些制约要素，在第一次模拟时，它们对项目的影响可能是不清楚的。到了现在团队对这些制约要素理解的更深刻导致调整模拟

D．网络图上有些虚活动有些不确定因素，随着项目进展变得更大。项目执行期间，变得让团队成员更难预知，在执行中不易分配。

D

解释：项目存在不确定因素，随着项目进展发生变化，导致出现不同模拟结果。参考：PMBOK2008 P299。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 9. What is the purpose of the Sensitivity analysis?

A. Describing the influence of extreme weather conditions on progress and on the achievement of project objectives.

B. Comparing the relative importance of variables that have a high degree of uncertainty with those that are more stable.

C. Evaluating team performance and identifying team members with low productivity and work effectiveness.

D. Evaluating the degree to which project work and deliverables conform to the expectations of key stakeholders.

敏感性分析的目的是什么?

A．描述极端天气条件下对进度和实现项目目标的影响

B．来比较具有高度不确定性的变量的重要性

C．评估团队绩效，识别具有低生产力和工作表现的团队成员

D．评估项目工作和可交付成果与主要干系人期望满足的程度

B

解释：龙卷风图 展示敏感性分析的结果。参考：PMBOK2008 P298。 （2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 10. You identified a technical risk in your project and assigned a contingency for that Planning contingency reserves is part of what risk response strategy?

A. Active risk mitigation

B. Passive risk avoidance

C. Passive risk acceptance

D. Active risk acceptance

你识别的你项目的技术风险并分配了应急储备。规划应急储备是哪个风险应对策略?

A．活动风险缓解

B．被动的风险回避

C．被动的风险接受

D．积极的风险接受

D

解释：积极的接受包括建立应急储备，安排一定的时间、资金或资源来应对风险。参考：PMBOK2008 P304。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 11. During Risk identification sessions, you and your team identified more than risks for your project. You are afraid that evaluating each of these risks quantitatively will cost you an enormous amount of time, while not all of them are really relevant and important enough to justify such a measure. What should you do next?

A. Identify Risk triggers where possible. Analyze only those risks quantitatively for which no trigger could be found.

B. Use Qualitative risk analysis in order to prioritize risks for further action, such as Quantitative risk analysis.

C. Assess the probability of each risk qualitatively and further analyze only those risks with high probability.

D. Assess the potential impact of each risk qualitatively and further analyze only those risks with high impact.

在风险识别期间，你和你的团队识别你的项目很多风险。你担心对每个风险进行定量分析会是你投入大量时间成本，不是每个风险都是确实相关而且重要到需要评估。你应该接下来做什么?

A．识别风险可能的“扳机”(风险征兆)。对没有找到“扳机的”风险进行定量风险分析

B．使用定性风险分析来对风险进行优先排序便于采取未来行动(如定量风险分析)

C．评估每个风险数量上的可能性，只在未来对可能性高的风险进行分析

D．评估每个风险数量上的潜在影响，只对未来有重大影响的风险进行分析

B

解释：定性风险分析有助于排列风险优先级，并判断出哪些风险需要进一步的定量分析。参考：PMBOK2008 P294。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 12. You are running a major project with four sub-projects. Each of the sub-project managers has developed a risk management plan, identified many risks, analyzed them and planned for risk response. It is now two months later. What should you not do?

A. Ensure that they handle all risks to save you from project level Monitor and Control Risks.

B. Make sure that the sub project managers monitor their project work for new and changing risks.

C. Make sure that the sub project managers keep track of the identified risks and those on the watchlist.

D. Make sure that the sub-project managers monitor trigger conditions for contingency plans.

你在负责一个重要的项目，该项目包括4个子项目，每个子项目经理都编写了风险管理计划，识别了些风险，分析了并作出风险应对。现在是两个月之后，你不应该做什么?

A．确保他们控制了所有的风险来确保你在项目层面的监控风险

B．确保子项目经理监控了他们的工作，防止新的或变更的风险

C．确保子项目经理保持跟踪识别的风险和那些在观察表中的风险

D．确保子项目经理为应急计划监控征兆条件

A

解释：项目经理无法控制所有的风险。 （2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 13. Which document is developed along the risk management processes from Risk identification through Plan Risk Responses and Risk monitoring and control?

A. List of risk triggers

B. Risk register

C. Risk mitigation

D. Decision tree

下列哪个文档在风险管理过程产生，来自风险识别贯穿规划风险应对和监控风险?

A．风险征兆清单

B．风险注册表

C．风险减轻

D．决策树

B

解释：风险注册表来自风险识别过程，贯彻风险管理过程，被不断更新。参考：PMBOK2008 P288。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 14. In your project, you have identified a list of identified risks, a list of potential responses and root causes of risks. You should document this information in the :

A. Risk Management Plan

B. Risk Database

C. Project Plan

D. Risk Register

在你的项目，你确定了已识别风险清单，潜在应对策略和风险的核心原因。你应该记录这些信息在：

A．风险管理计划

B．风险数据库

C．项目计划

D．风险登记册

D

解释：风险注册表来自风险识别过程包括：已识别风险清单；潜在应对措施清单。参考：PMBOK2008 P288（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 15. Plan Risk Management is the process of deciding how to approach and plan the risk management activities for a project. It is important to plan for the risk management processes that follow to ensure that the level, type, and visibility of risk management are commensurate with both the risk and importance of the project to the organization. The output of Plan Risk Management is:

A. Risks

B. Risk Management Plan

C. Risk Ranking of the Project

D. Planning Meetings

规划风险管理是个过程用来决定如何选择方法来规划项目风险管理的活动。这是非常重要的过程对风险管理过程而言，来确保过程的层次、类型和可见度来适合项目风险对组织的影响。规划风险管理的输出是：

A．风险

B．风险管理计划

C．项目风险批序

D．规划会议

B

解释：风险管理计划来自规划风险管理包括如何安排与实施项目风险管理。参考：PMBOK2008 P279。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 16. Which of the following is a chief characteristic of the Delphi Technique?

A. Extrapolation from historical records from previous projects

B. Expert opinion

C. Analytical hierarchy process

D. Bottom-up approach

下列哪个是德尔斐技术的主要特点?

A．根据来自此前项目的历史数据来推理

B．专家意见

C．分析层次过程

D．自下而上的方法

B

解释：德尔斐属于专家判断的一种，特点是背靠背，优点：防止任何人对结果产生不恰当那个的影响；缺点是时间比较长。参考：PMBOK2008 P286。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 17. During project executing, a major problem occurs that was not included in the risk register. What should you do FIRST?

A. Create a workaround.

B. Reevaluate the risk identification process.

C. Look for any unexpected effects of the problem.

D. Tell management.

项目执行期间，一个重要的问题出现了，它并没有包括在风险注册表内。你首先应该做什么?

A．创建权变措施

B．再评估风险识别过程

C．寻找这个问题未预期的影响结果

D．告诉管理层

A

解释：针对未知的风险发生时采取的临时措施叫权变措施。参考：PMBOK2008 P312。P445。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 18. A system development project is nearing project closing when a previously unidentified risk is discovered. This could potentially affect the project's overall ability to deliver. What should be done NEXT?

A. Alert the project sponsor of potential impacts to cost, scope or schedule.

B. Qualify the risk.

C. Mitigate this risk by developing a risk response plan.

D. Develop a workaround.

某个系统开发项目接近项目收尾，此刻识别了此前没有预料的风险。这可能潜在的影响项目交付的能力，接下来应该做什么?

A．警告项目出资人可能会潜在影响成本、范围和进度

B。定性风险分析

C．通过开发风险应对计划来减轻风险

D．开发个权变措施

B

解释：识别风险后需要进行分析，只有正在发生的风险才采用权变措施。参考：PMBOK2008 P445。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 19. You were in the middle of a two-year project to deploy new technology to field offices across the country. A hurricane caused power outages just when the upgrade was near completion. When the power was restored, all of the project reports and historical data were lost with no way of retrieving them. What should have been done to mitigate this risk?

A. Purchase insurance.

B. Plan for a reserve fund.

C. Monitor the weather and have a contingency plan.

D. Schedule the installation outside of the hurricane season.

你工作在某个两年的项目来开发新的技术在野外进行安装。在更新接近完成时一次狂风导致电力中断。所有的项目报告和历史数据都丢失了且无法恢复。如何做能够减轻这个风险?

A．购买保险

B．规划准备金

C．监控天气准备应急计划

D．在没有狂风的季节来计划安装工作

C

解释：选项A属于转移；选项D属于回避；选项B是积极的接受；选项C监控天气是属于降低概率和后果，算缓解。参考：PMBOK2008 P304。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 20. An experienced project manager has just begun working for a large information technology integrator. Her manager provides her with a draft project charter and immediately asks her to provide an analysis of the risks on the project. Which of the following would BEST help in this effort?

A. An article from PM Network Magazine

B. Her project scope statement from the project planning process

C. Her resource plan from the project planning process

D. A conversation with a team member from a similar project that failed in the past

一个有经验的项目经理刚刚开始工作到某个很大的信息技术集成项日上。他的管理者提供给他简单的项目章程，立刻要求他提供个项目风险分析。下列哪个可以最好的帮助他?

A．来自PM网络杂志的文章

B．他的来自项目规划过程的项目范围说明书

C．他的来自项目规划过程的资源计划

D．找来自类此失败项目的成员进行会谈

D

解释：这个是 访谈 属于信息收集技术。参考：PMBOK2008 P287。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 21. A project manager is quantifying risk for her project. Several of her experts are offsite,but wish to be included. How can this be done?

A. Use Monte Carlo analysis using the Internet as a tool.

B. Apply the critical path method.

C. Determine options for recommended corrective action.

D. Apply the Delphi Technique.

项目经理在定量分析她项目的风险。她的几个专家不在身边，不过她希望能包括。她可以如何做?

A．使用蒙特卡罗分析，使用互联网作为工具

B．应用关键路径法

C．确定推荐的纠正行动选项

D．应用Delphi德尔斐技术

D

解释：德尔斐特点，背靠背，专家不需要碰面。参考：PMBOK2008 P286（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 22. YOU are a project manager for a construction of a major new manufacturing plant that has never been done before. The project cost is estimated at U.S. $30,000,000 and will make use of three sellers. Once begun, the project cannot be cancelled, as there will be a large expenditure on plant and equipment. As the project manager, it would be MOST important to carefully:

A. review all cost proposals from the sellers.

B. examine the budget reserves.

C. complete the project charter.

D. perform an identification of risks.

你是个项目经理来建设新的制造业的工厂，这个项目从来没做过。项目成本估算是30，000，000美元，将会涉及三个卖方。一旦开始，项目不能够被取消，在工厂设备上会花费大量资金。作为项目经理，下列哪个是最重要的需要仔细：

A．回顾所有卖方的成本提议

B．检查预算储备

C．完成项目章程

D．执行风险识别

D

解释：题干说明项目有很大的风险，所以需要执行识别风险。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 23. A project manager has assembled the project team, identified 56 risks on the project,determined what would trigger the risks, rated them on a risk rating matrix,tested their assumptions and assessed the quality of the data used. The team is continuing to move through the risk management process. What has the project manager forgotten to do?

A. Simulation

B. Risk mitigation

C. Overall risk ranking for the project

D. Involvement of other stakeholders

项目经理集合项刚司队识别了56个风险，并找出它们的征兆，归类到风险等级矩阵，验证它们的假设，评估所使用数据的质量。这个团队即将转移到下个风险管理过程。项目经理忘记了做什么?

A．模拟

B．风险缓解

C．项目综合风险等级

D．包括其他项目干系人

D

解释：识别分析时需要干系人参与。参考：PMBOK2008 P287。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 24. A project manager asked various stakeholders to determine the probability and impact of a number of risks. He then analyzed assumptions. He is about to move to the next step of risk management. Based on this information, what has the project manager forgotten to do?

A. Evaluate trends in risk analysis.

B. Identify triggers.

C. Provide a standardized risk rating matrix.

D, Create a fallback plan.

某个项目经理征求不同干系人的意见来确定风险的概率和影响。他还分析了假设。他计划移动到下个风险管理步骤。基于上述信息，项目经理忘记作哪个事情?

A．评估风险分析的趋势

B．识别风险征兆

C．提供个标准的风险等级矩阵

D．创建后备计划

C

解释：题干在定性风险分析过程，选项C是该过程的工具。参考：PMBOK2008 P291。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 25. During which risk management process is a determination to transfer a risk made?

A. Risk identification

B. Quantitative risk analysis

C. Plan Risk Responses

D. Risk monitoring and control

下列哪个风险管理过程来考虑对风险的转移?

A．风险识别

B．定量风险分析

C．规划风险应对

D．监控风险

C

解释：风险转移是指把某风险的部分或全部责任转给第三方。参考：PMBOK2008 P303。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 26. Workarounds are determined during which risk management process?

A. Risk identification

B. Quantitative risk analysis

C. Plan Risk Responses

D. Risk monitoring and control

权变措施在哪个风险管理过程被确定?

A．风险识别

B．定量风险分析

C．规划风险应对

D．监控风险

D

解释：权变措施是针对未知风险发生时采取的临时性措施，是监控过程的输出。参考：PMBOK2008 P312。P445。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 27. An output of Plan Risk Responses is:

A. residual risks.

B. risks identified.

C. prioritized list of risks.

D. impacts identified.

规划风险应对的输出是：

A．残留风险

B．识别的风险

C．优先排序的风险清单

D．识别的影响

A

解释：残留风险属于规划风险应对过程输出的风险登记册的内容。选项B是识别风险的；选项C、D是定性风险分析后的。参考：PMBOK2008 P306。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 28. You are finding it difficult to evaluate the exact cost impact of risks.You should evaluate on a(n):

A. quantitative basis.

B. numerical basis.

C. qualitative basis.

D. econometric basis.

你发现对某个风险很难评估实际的成本影响，你应该通过下列哪个来评估?

A．基于数量的

B．基于数字的

C．基于定性的

D．基于经济学的

C

解释：定性就是写：高，中，低（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 29. All of the following are common results of risk management EXCEPT?

A. Contract terms and conditions are created.

B. The project management plan is changed.

C. The communications management plan is changed.

D. The project charter is changed.

下列都是风险管理的共同结果除了：

A．获得条件和合同条款

B．项目管理计划发生变更

C．沟通管理计划被变更

D．项目章程发生变更

D

解释：在规划风险应对的输出中包括：与风险相关的合同决策、项目管理计划（更新）；所以只能在C和D中选择，相对而言，项目章程变更的概率较低。参考：PMBOK2008 P306。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 30. Risk tolerances are determined in order to help:

A. the team rank the project risks.

B. the project manager estimate the project.

C. the team schedule the project.

D. management know how other managers will act on the project

风险容忍度被确定用来帮助：

A．团队成员对项目风险评级

B．项目经理估算项目

C．团队来计划项目进度

D．管理层知道其他管理者在项目中干的怎么样

A

解释：风险容忍度，又翻译为“风险承受力”属于事业环境因素，是规划风险管理过程的输入。组织的风险承受力会影响团队成员对某个风险的等级划分。参考：PMBOK2008 P278。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 31. All of the following are always inputs to the risk management process EXCEPT:

A. historical information.

B. lessons learned.

C. work breakdown structure.

D. project status reports.

下列都是风险管理过程的输入除了：

A．历史信息

B．经验总结

C．工作分解结构

D．项目状态报告

D

解释：历史信息、经验总结属于组织过程资产；WBS属于范围基准，都是识别风险的输入。参考：PMBOK2008 P286 284。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 32. What should be done with risks on the watch list?

A. Document them for historical use on other projects.

B. Document them and revisit during project executing.

C. Document them and set them aside because they are already covered in your contingency plans.

D. Document them and give them to the customer.

记录在风险观察单上的风险需要做什么?

A．记录它们为其他项目作为历史数据

B．记录他们在项目执行中进行再评估

C．记录它们忽略它们因为他们已经在你的应急计划中包括了

D．记录它们把它们给客户

B

解释：低优先级风险观察清单，来自定性风险分析；这些风险需要持续监测。参考：PMBOK2008 P294。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 33. Risks will be identified during which risk management process(es)?

A. Quantitative risk analysis and Identify Risks

B. Identify Risks and Monitor and Control Risks

C. Qualitative risk analysis and Monitor and Control Risks

D. Identify Risks

风险被识别是在下列哪些风险管理过程中?

A．定量风险分析和识别风险

B．识别风险和监控风险

C．定性风险分析和监控风险

D．识别风险

B

解释：识别风险、监控风险过程都需要识别新的风险。参考：PMBOK2008 P273。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 34. If a risk event has a 90 percent chance of occurring, and the consequences will be U.S. $10,000, what does U.S. $9,000 represent?

A. Risk value

B. Present value

C. Expected monetary value

D. Contingency budget

如果风险有90％的概率出现，结果将导致损失10000美元。那么9000美元是：

A．风险值

B．现值

C．预期货币值

D．应急储备

C

解释：EMV=P（概率）*V（后果）参考：PMBOK2008 P298。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 35. If a risk has a 20 percent chance of happening in a given month, and the project is expected to last five months, what is the probability that this risk event will occur during the fourth month of the project?

A. Less than 1 percent

B. 20 percent

C. 60 percent

D. 80 percent

如果有个风险有20％的概率发生在某个月，项目预期5个月，这个风险出现在项目第4个月的概率是多少?

A．少于1％

B．20％

C．60％

D．80％

B

解释：风险在每个月发生的概率都是一样的。因为事件是独立的。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 36. Which of the following risk events is MOST likely to interfere with attaining a project's schedule objective?

A. Delays in obtaining required approvals

B. Substantial increases in the cost of purchased materials

C. Contract disputes that generate claims for increased payments

D. Slippage of the planned post-implementation review meeting

下列哪个风险最可能影响项目进度目标的实现?

A．在获得必要审批时出现拖延

B．采购的材料成本大幅度上升

C．因为增加的支付费用合同出现争论

D．计划的状态评审会出现偏离

A

解释：选项B和C可能引发成本目标方面的风险；选项A会导致进度风险。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 37. If a project has a 60 percent chance of a U.S. $100, 000 profit and a 40 percent chance of a U.S. $100, 000 loss, the expected monetary value for the project is:

A. $100, 000 profit

B. $60,000 loss

C. $20,000 profit

D. $40,000 loss

如果项目有60％机会获得100，000利润；40％的机会损失100，000。这个项目的预期货币值是：

A．$100，000利润

B．$60，000损失

C．$20，000利润

D．$40，000损失

C

解释：EMV=0.6*100，000-0.4*100，000=20，000。参考：PMBOK2008 P298。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 38. All of the following are factors in the assessment of project risk EXCEPT?

A. Risk event

B. Risk probability

C. Amount at stake

D. Insurance premiums

下列都是评估项目风险的因素除了：

A．风险事件

B．风险概率

C．风险后果程度

D．保险费

D

解释：风险本身是个事件，可能发生也可能不发生这叫做概率，一旦发生就会造成后果。前三个选项都是评估风险使用的指标。参考：PMBOK2008 P275。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 39. Which of the following strategies are suggested to deal with threats or risks that have negative impact on projects?

A.Avoid, transfer or mitigate

B.Avoid, transfer or enhance

C.Avoid, exploit or mitigate

D.Exploit, share or enhance

下列哪个措施被建议用来应对负面的风险或威胁?

A．回避，转移或减轻

B．回避，转移或提升

C．回避，开拓或减轻

D．开拓，共享或提高

A

解释：回避、转移、减轻用来应对负面风险；开拓、共享、提高用来应对正面风险；接受两种风险都可以使用。参考：PMBOK2008 P303。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 40. In the Identify Risks phase, you are working with your team to determine which risks might affect project performance. Which of the following information gathering techniques can you use to facilitate the process? (choose the best answer).

A. Brainstorming, Cause and Effect Diagrams

B. Brainstorming, Delphi Technique, SWOTAnalysis

C. Brainstorming, Delphi technique, Interviewing, Root cause identification

D. Delphi Technique, SWOT Analysis, Influence Diagrams

在识别风险过程中，你在和团队成员在确定哪些风险会影响项目的绩效。下列哪个是你将在此过程使用的信息搜集技术?(选择最好的答案)

A．头脑风暴，因果图

B．头脑风暴，德尔斐技术，SWOT态势分析

C．头脑风暴，德尔斐技术，访谈，核心原因识别

D．德尔斐技术，SWOT态势分析，影响图

C

解释：头脑风暴、德尔斐技术、访谈、核心原因分析都是识别风险的工具。参考：PMBOK2008 P286。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 41. As a project manager, you are concerned with determining which risks might impact the project - this is done as a part of:

A. Identify Risks

B. Plan Risk Management

C. Plan Risk Responses

D. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

作为项目经理，你关注确定哪些风险会影响到项目一这将被执行在：

A．识别风险

B．规划风险管理

C．规划风险应对

D．定性风险分析

A

解释：找出影响项目的风险是识别风险过程的内容。参考：PMBOK2008 P282。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 42. What is the need for doing a qualitative risk analysis?

A. To develop options and actions to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to project objectives.

B. To determine which risk might affect the project

C. To prioritize risks for subsequent further analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact.

D. To decide how to approach, plan and execute the risk management activites

定性风险分析需要做什么?

A．开发些措施和行动来提高项目成功的机会概率和降低威胁发生的概率

B．确定哪些风险会影响到项目

C．结合风险的发生概率和影响来排列风险优先级为未来的分析做准备

D．决定如何选择、规划、执行风险管理活动

C

解释：定性风险分析就是评估概率和影响确定优先级的过程；选项A是应对；选项B是识别；选项D是规划风险管理。参考：PMBOK2008 P289。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 43. Sensitivity Analysis is

A.Quality Planning Tool

B.Quality Control Tool

C.Quantitative Risk Analysis Tool

D.Qualitative Risk Analysis Tool

敏感性分析是：

A．质量规划的工具

B．质量控制的工具

C．定量风险分析的工具

D．定性风险分析的工具

C

参考：PMBOK2008 P298。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 44. You are Performing Sensitivity Analysis for a project to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project. When talking to the project sponsor, he commented that I thought you have completed Risk identification and asked whether we are late on project planning phase. What will be your response?

A. Accept that you missed the step in Risk Identification and now you are completing the activity and ensure him that you will take care of these things in future.

B.Inform him that Sensitivity analysis can be done during any phase of the project and no need to worry about this

C.Inform him that Sensitivity analysis is part of Qualitative Analysis and you are on track in planning

D.Inform him that Sensitivity analysis is part of Quantitative Analysis and you are on track in planning

你在执行敏感性分析为某个项目去确定哪个风险有更多的项目影响。当和发起人交流时，他评论说，我想你已经完成了风险识别，并询问是否我们在项目计划阶段的后期。你应该如何回应?

A．接受这个，你错过了风险识别过程，现在你在完成这些活动，向他确保在未来你将小心对待

B．告诉他敏感性分析可以在项目任何期间进行，不需要担心这些。

C．告诉他敏感性分析是定性分析的部分，你正在跟踪计划

D．告诉他敏感性分析是定量分析的部分，你正在跟踪计划

D

参考：PMBOK2008 P298。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 45. What should not be part of a risk management plan?

A. Roles and responsibilities for handling risks

B. Timing of risk management activities

C. The managerial approach towards risk

D. Individual risks

下列哪个应该不是风险管理计划的一部分?

A．应对风险的角色与责任

B．风险管理活动的时机或次数

C．风险管理方法论

D．个别风险

D

解释：个别风险属于风险登记册参考：PMBOK2008 P279。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 46. According to the project plan, a contractor is scheduled to deliver some software components today afternoon. A regular payment is due to be made to this contractor tomorrow. You and your project team received a note this morning informing you that the software delivery will be delayed by 2 weeks. What should you do right now?

A. You should delay the payment also for 2 weeks.

B. You must immediately find a different contractor.

C. You should conduct a meeting with the contractor to resolve the delivery issues before making the payment.

D. You should make the payment and reschedule the project plan.

根据项目计划，承包商计划在今天下午递交一些软件组件，按照常规明天给承包商支付费用。你和你的项目团队今天早上接到通知软件交付可能会耽误2周。你现在应该做什么?

A．你应该耽搁2周后再付款

B．你应该立刻寻找其他供应商

C．你应该和承包商召开会议解决这个问题在支付费用之前

D．你应该支付费用并重新修订项目计划

C

解释：首先评估影响并和供应商寻找解决方案。其他选项是极端措施，不到万不得已不考虑。 （2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 47. What is a trigger in project risk management?

A. An expected situation causing an unidentified risk to occur

B. A warning sign that a previously identified risk might be occurring or has occurred

C. An unexpected situation causing an identified risk to occur

D. An unexpected situation causing an unidentified risk to occur

什么是风险管理提到的“扳机”

A．一个预期情形会导致未知的风险来临

B．一个警告说明预先识别的风险可能到来或者已经到来

C．一个未预期情形导致一个识别的风险来临

D．一个未预期情形导致一个未识别的风险来临

B

解释：Trigger 触发因素：风险即将发生或已发生的标示。在风险识别过程发现，并在风险监控时进行监控。参考：PMBOK2008 P444。 （2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 48. You have recently been assigned as a project manager to a new B-O-T(Build, Operate, Transfer) capital project. Reviewing the initial documentation you found out that it has been calculated with a very small margin during operations of its product for the shareholders. What should you do?

A. As you are not responsible for lifecycle costing, you don t have to worry about operation profits. Focus on project costs from initiation through handover.

B. Ensure maximum profits by buying the best and cheapest items, components and modules - potentially from a big number of different suppliers - and integrating them.

C. Create a realistic plan broken down to a sufficient level of detail.Perform all risk management processes. Ensure real-time communications with all stakeholders.

D. Try to get a second project manager assigned to share decision making and accountability to shareholders with the person.

你最近被分配到一个新的BOT(建设、运营、移交)投资项目上作项目经理。评估初始文件你发现在运营期间为股东产出的利润非常低。你应该做什么?

A．你不必对生命期成本负责，你不用担心运营的利润，集中在项目开始到移交的项目成本上即可。

B．通过购买最好最便宜的组件和模块一找大量的不同提供商一然后整合他们来确保利润最大化

C．创建个符合实际的计划分解到足够详细的程度，执行所有的风险管理过程。确保和所有干系人即时沟通。

D．尝试获得第二个项目经理共同作决策和向干系人做说明

C

解释：找PMI推崇的做法：做好计划、考虑风险、及时沟通等。 （2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 49. You want to perform active risk acceptance. What should you do?

A. Create contingency reserves in resources, money and time.

B. Develop a plan to minimize impact in case that an identified risk occurs.

C. Develop a plan to minimize the probability of occurrence for identified risks

D. Make additional resources available to speed up the project.

你想采取主动的风险接受，你需要做什么?

A．创建应急储备金包括资源，钱和时间

B．编写个计划来最小化识别的风险的影响

C．编写个计划来最小化识别的风险的发生概率

D．获得额外可利用的资源来加速项目

A

参考：PMBOK2008 P304。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）

• 50. With your team you are using judgment from subject matter experts to identify and analyze project risks. There is a small number of experts available, but some of them have long been in a teacher-student or manager-assistant relationship. Which of the following techniques can ensure best that there is no dominating opinion during an expert review?

A. Peer review

B. SWOT analysis

C. Delphi technique

D. Monetary value calculation

你和你的团队使用了主题专家进行了判断用来识别和分析项目风险。只有很少数量的专家可以使用，可是他们已经长期在“教师一学生”或“管理一助理”的关系中。下列哪个技术可以最好的确保在专家评估中不会出现独裁的观点?

A．同级评审

B．SWOT(态势)分析

C．德尔斐技术

D．预期值计算

C

解释：德尔斐技术特点背对背，专家不需要见面，避免了受他人影响，使结果相对客观。参考：PMBOK2008 P286。（2009-6-16 15:27:16）