Week3 Tue翻译笔记

Economic theory posited that a developed country like the United States would adjust to import competition by moving workers into more advanced industries that competed successfully in global markets. In the real world of American workers exposed to the rush of imports after China erupted onto world markets, the adjustment didn’t happen.

从经济学理论角度来讲，像美国这样的发达国家是可以应对进口竞争的。只要将工人转移到更高端的产业中，而且这些产业得是在全球市场竞争中脱颖而出的。但实际情况是，当中国在国际市场中异军突起，美国工人面临大量涌进的中国商品时，却并没能成功幸免。

If mediocre job prospects and low wages didn’t stop American families from consuming, it was because the American financial system was flush with Chinese cash and willing to lend, financing their homes and refinancing them to buy the furniture. But that equilibrium didn’t end well either, did it?

并不乐观的就业前景和低廉的薪资并没有打消美国家庭的购买热情，那是因为美国金融体系充斥着人民币，并且美国愿意将这笔资金出借给公民，资助他们购房，当他们需要买家具的时候，美国政府会再次伸出援助之手。但是这样的平衡似乎并没有带来想要的结果。

What it left was a lot of betrayed anger floating around among many Americans on the wrong end of these dynamics. “By not following the law, the administration sent a political signal that the U.S. wouldn’t stand up to Chinese cheating,” said Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “As we can see now, that hurt in terms of maintaining political support for open trade.”

剩下的似乎只是萦绕在大量美国人心中的愤怒，他们感到了背叛的滋味，觉得自己处在经济运行模式不公的一端。美国外交关系协会的高级研究员爱德华·艾尔登（Edward Alden）说：美国不会遵守这样的规则，以此行政部门发出了一个政治信号，表明美国不会任由中国的作弊行为。就我们目前看到的是，这样的做法也不利于为公平交易持续输送政治支持。

If there was a winner from this dynamic, it was Mr. Trump.

如果当下的经济动态还能有一个受益方的话，那这个赢家就是特朗普。

Will Mr. Trump really go after China? In addition to an expected executive order to retaliate against the dumping of Chinese steel, he has promised more. He could tinker with the definitions of “material” and “significant” trade surpluses to justify a manipulation charge.

特朗普真的会找中国算账吗？特朗普已经筹划了一项用于还击中国钢铁倾销的行政命令。除此之外，他还可以对所谓“材料”、“重大的”贸易顺差的定义做些改动，这样就可以指控中国操控了。

And yet a charge of manipulation would add irony upon irony. “It would be incredibly ironic not to have named China a manipulator when it was manipulating, and name it when it is not,” Mr. Setser told me. And Mr. Trump would be retaliating against the economic dynamic that handed him the presidency.

但是对中国进行操控的指控似乎只是让原本就很讽刺的情形变得更加讽刺。Setser先生告诉我，“如果中国真的在背后操纵，那没有指控它就显得尤其讽刺。如果中国没有操纵，却指出中国是操纵国，那将会同样讽刺。”特朗普将要打击的经济动态正是当初将他送上总统宝座的那个。

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