The Missing Wealth of Nations: Are Europe and the U.S. net Debtors or net Creditors?

时间与刊物：QJE 2013

思维方式：极其强悍，也是一个人人都可以想到的观点——世界上有一些私人财富藏在避税天堂里，因而没有被计入公开账户计算，造成最终全球资产为负的这个“国际投资统计之迷”（negative net foreign asset position）。结论预计全球有6%的财富是不公开的，其中绝大部分是私人财富。但通观全文之后，本文没有用到计量，只是通过数据之间的关系（税收、收入、贸易等），直接进行推算，试图补平gap。但这篇是第一篇研究私人财富和避税的文章。

摘要：There are two puzzles in international investment statistics. First, the world as a whole is a net debtor. Next, contrary to what the neoclassical growth model suggests, the rich world is a net debtor. Both puzzles, I argue, stem from the fact that international accounts miss most of the wealth held by households through tax havens. I use systematic inconsistencies in portfolio investment positions and a unique Swiss dataset to study households’ offshore wealth. I find that 8% of the global financial wealth of households is held offshore, of which at least 6% is unrecorded. The bulk is invested in mutual funds. Most Swiss accounts belong to Europeans. Under minimal assumptions, accounting for tax havens turns the euro area, officially the world’s second biggest net debtor, into a net creditor. It also significantly reduces the U.S. net negative position. I conclude with concrete proposals to improve international investment statistics.

文章结构：

Section II：

There are three broad categories of cross-border claims: direct investments (holdings of over 10%), portfolio securities (equities and bonds that do not qualify as direct investment), and other assets (mainly loans and deposits)。——截至2008年，Security 是最大的一部分

于是，作者开始探究如何record security。

结论：通过离岸市场第三方持有的话——in tax havens with strict bank secrecy rules, banks do not generally report information.

原理：为何离岸资产组合是国际统计的盲点——When French households entrust U.S. securities to Swiss banks, these assets cannot be captured by surveying French custodians. They go completely unrecorded in the French IIP。

具体操作方式举例：Investing in a Luxembourg fund through a Swiss account makes perfect sense for a French tax evader: Luxembourg does not withhold taxes on cross-border payments, so the tax evader receives the full dividend paid by the fund on his or her account, and French personal income tax can be evaded, since there is no automatic exchange of information between Swiss banks and the French tax authority.

评论：由于数据太少，很多靠推断，却要在QJE这样的期刊上发，导致这篇文章的文风，像侦探小说，又或者大陆公知一样——To address these challenges, many studies exist to rely on, drawing on independent sources. By construction, my figures are in line with these studies, which makes me confident in their accuracy.

结论：At end 2008, the global net financial wealth of households – households’ bank deposits, equities, bonds, and insurance contracts, net of debts – was about $74tr.30By my estimate, individuals held unrecorded portfolios worthΩ=$4.5tr in tax havens – that is, about 6% of their net financial wealth. around 8% of the global financial wealth of households is held in tax havens, three-quarters of which goes unrecorded.

政策建议：1. countries should exchange data on portfolio securities held offshore by house-holds.   2. Cross-border banking data on the household sector should be compiled on a beneficial ownership basis.