Ireland’s referendum on its abortion ban

https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2018/02/economist-explains-0

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Repealing (废止) the country’s constitutional ban on abortion may be the easy part

Feb 2nd 2018by E.O'L. | DUBLIN

THIS week’s announcement that Ireland will hold a referendum in May on whether to repeal its constitutional ban on abortion is a sign of a huge shift in Irish society. In 1983 67% of its voters had endorsed a constitutional amendment that, in effect (实际上), banned abortion entirely, even in cases of rape, incest and fetal abnormality so severe that the baby could not live—and even when a termination was essential to save the woman’s life. Abortion in Ireland had already been illegal for more than a century, but anti-abortion activists had wanted a constitutional ban for fear that the law might in future be relaxed. Thirty-five years later not only is Leo Varadkar, the prime minister and leader of the centre-right Fine Gael party, recommending a repeal, he is also campaigning for abortion to be legal up to the 12th week of pregnancy.

Polls suggest that 60% of the Irish population, and a clear majority of parliamentarians, will vote to scrap (抛弃) the anti-abortion amendment, the constitution’s eighth. In the intervening years (在这期间) the Catholic church, once the country’s dominant social force, has been battered (抨击】) by scandals, including revelations of widespread sexual abuse of children by priests. Social trends already in evidence when the eighth amendment was passed, such as a turning away from Catholic teachings on divorce, contraception (避孕), homosexuality and extra-marital sex (外遇), have continued. And public opinion regarding abortion has been deeply affected by a few high-profile cases. In the “X case” of 1992 the government of the day tried to stop a pregnant, suicidal 14-year-old rape victim from travelling to Britain for an abortion, a journey made by several thousand Irish women each year. Twenty years later a 31-year-old woman died in hospital after her request for an emergency termination was ignored, even though she was already miscarrying a non-viable fetus (已经流产了一个不能存活的胎儿).

Repeal ought to be the easy part. Without the eighth amendment, a new law regulating abortion will be needed; even the most liberal countries have term limits for abortions. Mr Varadkar’s call for legal abortion up to the 12th week of pregnancy is made, at least in part, on pragmatic grounds. Misoprostol (米索前列醇), a drug that induces abortion if taken in the first three months of pregnancy, is already being smuggled into Ireland and used without medical supervision. Public opinion is strongly in favour of allowing abortion for victims of rape or incest. Allowing abortion for any woman in the first three months would, in most cases, mean that the difficulty of legally proving these women’s situations could be sidestepped (回避).

Any new law to liberalise abortion will be a matter for parliament; only repeal of the ban will be on the ballot in May. But for some Irish voters who concede (承认) the need to allow abortion in certain, rare circumstances, abortion “on demand”, no matter how early in pregnancy, may be too much. If Ireland’s still-formidable anti-abortion lobby can persuade enough voters that repeal would inexorably (不可逆转的) lead to abortion on demand, the referendum may fail. Mr Varadkar, a young and openly gay new prime minister who faces opposition from social conservatives within his party, showed courage and leadership in setting out what he thought should follow repeal. Whether he was prudent to do so will only be clear once the votes have been counted.