房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论

在家宅久了,想写点代码,算什么好呢?算算LPR吧

这有啥算头?

算固定利率和LPR哪个划算?算等额本息和等额本金哪种方式划算:我们要用总还款的当前币值折现值(未来花的钱相当于现在支出多少)来比较,还要在不同通胀情况下的折现值来体现各种方式的特点。

下面就让我来算算吧,有错请朋友们不吝指教~~

——————————————————————————正文分割线————————————————————

公式介绍:

LPR切换前,使用固定利率(当前是4.75%)——

等额本息还款方式:月供=本金*月利率*(1+月利率)^总贷款月数/[(1+月利率)^总贷款月数-1]

等额本金还款方式:月供=本金/总贷款月数+剩余本金*月利率

 

LPR切换后,使用浮动利率(这里就先考虑一年调整一次LPR的方式)——

等额本息还款方式(每年一调):月供=年剩余本金*LPR*(1+LPR)^(剩余年月数)/[(1+LPR)^(剩余年月数)-1]

等额本金还款方式:月供=本金/总贷款月数+剩余本金*LPR

 

注意的是:

每月所还的利息部分=贷款剩余本金*月利率

每月所还本金部分=月供-每月所还的利息部分

公式参考来源(有更好的信息请补充更正~):

https://www.cnblogs.com/lixuwu/p/11125517.html

https://zhidao.baidu.com/question/428849979409866612.html

https://www.u8see.com/housetool.asp

https://zhidao.baidu.com/question/487889702484427292.html

https://www.rong360.com/baike/21.html#3

——————————————————————————公式升级————————————————————

我们关心的是总还款的折现值,所以现在给出计算公式:

折现值=\sum \left ( 月供/(1+月通胀率)^{还款月数}\right )还款总额折现值=sum(月供/累乘(1+月通胀率))

——————————————————————————代码仿真————————————————————

以200万贷款,30年还款为例,当前利率4.75%,未来通胀率等于LPR 的整数倍(实际有不同说法,是否线性关系也请专业朋友指教?),而LPR的调整方向分为3种——不变,降低,升高

下表是计算结果的统计表格:

根据表格,我的结论是:

1、通胀率有几种表述——统计局给的CPI指数/央行统计的通胀率/实际购买力缩减程度——大概率当前的经济情况和全球的低利率趋势,通胀率可能出现较大值,因此,我个人愿意取更大的通胀率结果。

2、通胀率>LPR,LPR增大 优于 LPR锁定 优于LPR降低(非常反直觉!!!!!!!!也和网上的专家说的不一样!!请有不同意见的同学来拍砖!——应该是因为我把通胀率和LPR设定成了正线性相关,这是不对的,应该是反相关变化关系)

3、等额本息 整体优于 等额本金

4、除了考虑折现款总额,还要看还款金额的变化趋势,对当前家庭现金流的影响,如果有投资理财,还要考虑投资回报率来决定现金流最优方式。

5、LPR下降,等额本息月供减少,等额本金月供减少加快。LPR上升,等额本息月供增加,等额本金月供减少变慢。通胀率对月供无影响。月供对家庭现金流的影响受到还款方式和LPR决定。

本金 还款方式 LPR月利率/通胀率 月供 总还款

总折现款(按LPR通胀)

总折现款(按通胀率=2*LPR) 总折现款(按通胀率=4*LPR)  
200万 等额本息 不变4.75% 10432 3755860 2000000 1240755 656617  
降低4.75%匀降到0.5% 10432~7958 3172902 1999997 1343253 724197  
升高4.75%匀升到8% 10432~12655 4257985 2000000 1191228 631003  
等额本金 不变4.75% 13472~5577 3428958 2000000 1330351 762237  
降低4.75%匀降到0.5% 13472~5558 3026684 2000000 1405184 814889  
升高4.75%匀升到8% 13472~5592 3736579 2000000 1295439 741351

 

下面是代码链接:

https://github.com/yangh2333/-House-property-/blob/master/CalculateHousingLoan

下面是上述表格统计的情况的运行结果:

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++等额本息++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 通胀率=LPR++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is        3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 2000000.0000000116
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is        3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 1999997.7040952134
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is        4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 2000000.9518129409
-------------end------------------------

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论_第1张图片

分析:LPR下行,月供会减少,以后每月的家庭流水压力逐渐减小。LPR上行,月供增加,流水压力逐渐增加,但是幅度比较温和。总之,和大通胀比起来都算很小的涨幅。

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++等额本息+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 通胀率=2*LPR++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is        3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 1240755.7268539048
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is        3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 1343253.0812919503
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is        4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 1191228.1835512465
-------------end------------------------

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论_第2张图片

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++等额本息+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 通胀率=4*LPR++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275   
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is        3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 656617.5359742445
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is        3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 724197.0108411231
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is        4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 631003.4974365009
-------------end------------------------

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论_第3张图片

分析:通胀不影响月供金额数字。

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++等额本金+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 通胀率=LPR+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is        3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 2000000.0000000165
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is        3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 2000000.0000000086
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is        3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 2000000.0000000056
-------------end------------------------

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论_第4张图片

分析:等额本金下,LPR降低,月供加速减少。LPR升高,月供减缓减少。

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++等额本金++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 通胀率=2*LPR++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is        3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 1330351.8914530918
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is        3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 1405184.0172224122
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is        3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 1295439.227252862
-------------end------------------------

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论_第5张图片

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++等额本金+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 通胀率=4*LPR+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is        3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 762237.1675692783
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is        3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 814889.3600062618
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is        3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 741351.5412335462
-------------end------------------------

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论_第6张图片

 

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