比特币怎么比特币钱包_比特币的反面

比特币怎么比特币钱包

by Ilya Pestov

通过伊利亚·佩斯托夫(Ilya Pestov)

比特币的反面 (The Antinomy of Bitcoin)

There are a huge number of articles about cryptocurrencies. Earlier, geeks and people associated with the technology spoke about it. But now, ordinary internet users are talking about it. The most disturbing fact for them is that New Liberty Standard, the first Bitcoin exchange, set the rate of 1 Bitcoin (BTC) equal to US $ 0.0007 on 5 October 2009. Bitcoin has since multiplied over a million times.

关于加密货币的文章很多。 此前，极客和与该技术相关的人员都在谈论它。 但是现在，普通的互联网用户正在谈论它。 对他们来说，最令人不安的事实是，第一个比特币交易所新自由标准将2009年10月5日的1比特币(BTC)汇率设置为等于0.0007美元 。比特币自此以来增长了一百万倍。

Many people remember (with irony) the story of the person who bought two pizzas for 10,000 BTC in 2010. But, economy is a science of balances. If there were no such people who changed BTC to pizza, Bitcoin wouldn’t cost what it does today. And believing in unsecured labor earnings becomes more and more. The fact that the annual profitability of a venture is about 20% isn’t capable of forcing them to doubt the stability of the success of any ICO. Only the worlds best investment funds have made 100X a return on their investment. But, it is due to the Unicorns within their portfolio, and not the entire portfolio.

许多人(具有讽刺意味的是)记得这个人在2010年以10,000 BTC的价格购买了两个披萨的故事。但是，经济是一门平衡的科学。 如果没有这样的人将BTC更改为披萨，那么比特币将不会花费今天的费用。 越来越多的人相信无担保的劳动收入。 一家企业的年度利润率约为20％的事实并不能迫使他们怀疑任何ICO成功的稳定性。 只有世界上最好的投资基金才能获得100倍的投资回报率。 但是，这是由于独角兽在他们的投资组合中，而不是整个投资组合中。

It’s well known that Blockchain is the next big thing. And that cryptocurrencies have already changed and continue to change the world. But, what would the future of Bitcoin exactly be?

众所周知，区块链是下一件大事。 那种加密货币已经改变并且继续改变世界。 但是，比特币的未来到底是什么？

There are prominent financiers like Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan (US$ 2.5 trillion of assets under management) who calls Bitcoin a fraud. The CEO of BlackRock (US$ 5.7 trillion of assets under management) said “Bitcoin is an index of money laundering”.

摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)(管理的资产达2.5万亿美元)等著名金融家将比特币称为欺诈 。 贝莱德公司首席执行官(管理资产达5.7万亿美元) 说： “比特币是洗钱指数。”

There are a lot of skeptics, but a lot more followers of crypto currencies. Many people know how to play with risks, but prize-winning places are not for all. By analogy, only about 5% of poker players actually win in the long term.

怀疑论者很多，但更多的加密货币追随者。 许多人都知道如何冒险，但是获奖场所并不适合所有人。 以此类推，从长远来看，只有大约5％的扑克玩家实际获胜。

比特币是泡沫吗？ (So is Bitcoin a bubble or not?)

There are so many opinions about Bitcoin already. Why would one more piece from an unknown person like me be interesting to you? This article isn’t my opinion, because I’ve tried to use only facts and numbers. This will be meaningful for you to make your own conclusion. This article is not a statement, and is rather a question to the reader.

关于比特币已经有很多意见。 为什么还会再有一个像我这样的陌生人对你感兴趣？ 本文不是我的观点，因为我尝试仅使用事实和数字。 这对于您得出自己的结论将是有意义的。 本文不是一个声明，而是对读者的一个问题。

An article in Vice.com recently revealed that Bitcoin mining utilizes an average of 215 kilowatt hours (kWh) per transaction. Assuming the average price of 1 kWh to be 9 cents (electricity cost in China). That would need US$ 19.35 per transaction. Having this value in hand, it became interesting to project this on the activity of Visa. In 2016, Visa processed more than 83 billion transactions and gained US$ 6.7 billion in revenues.

Vice.com上的一篇文章最近透露，比特币采矿每笔交易平均使用215千瓦时 (kWh)。 假设1千瓦时的平ASP格为9美分(中国的电费)。 每笔交易将需要19.35美元。 掌握了这一价值，将其投射到Visa的活动上变得很有趣。 2016年，Visa处理了超过830亿笔交易 ，收入67亿美元。

Yesterday, there were 274,858 transactions in the Bitcoin network. I made simple calculations with an Excel sheet. It turns out that last year there were 100,444,450 Bitcoin transactions. It follows that about US$ 1.9 billion per year in electricity costs are needed. This is just for sustaining transactions within the Bitcoin network. If the number of Bitcoin transactions equal those processed by Visa, then more than US$ 1.5 trillion per year would be required. Just to sustain the Bitcoin network. The anomaly of this sum is visible.

昨天，比特币网络中有274,858笔交易 。 我使用Excel工作表进行了简单的计算。 事实证明，去年有100,444,450比特币交易。 因此，每年需要约19亿美元的电费。 这只是为了维持比特币网络内的交易。 如果比特币交易的数量等于Visa进行的交易，那么将超过1.5万亿美元 每年将是必需的。 只是为了维持比特币网络。 此总和的异常是可见的。

But, the Bitcoin network is restricted to a rate of 7 transactions per second. This is due to a protocol block size restriction of 1 MB set by Satoshi Nakamoto. This provides protection against hacker attacks.

但是，比特币网络被限制为每秒7笔交易。 这是由于中本聪设定的协议块大小限制为1 MB。 这提供了针对黑客攻击的保护。

An average number of operations last year required a speed of ~3 transactions per second. There was a plan called SegWit2X, which attempted to increase the block size. These plans are suspended.

去年平均操作数需要每秒〜3个事务的速度。 有一个名为SegWit2X的计划，试图增加块大小。 这些计划被暂停 。

The fact is that Bitcoin was intended for low-frequency operations with impressive sums. It isn’t capable of reaching the globalization level of Visa. Capitalization of Bitcoin has exceeded US$ 100 billion recently. The amount of daily transactions at that time was more than US$ 900 million.

事实是，比特币是用于低频操作的，且金额可观。 它无法达到Visa的全球化水平。 最近，比特币的资本总额已超过1000亿美元。 当时的每日交易额超过9亿美元。

I wanted to analyze the relation of data for the estimated transaction volume to market capitalization for the last two years. As a result, the average value is equal to 1.79% (the median — 1.7%). What conclusions can be made from the obtained results?

我想分析过去两年中估计交易量的数据与市值的关系。 结果，平均值等于1.79％(中位数为1.7％)。 从所得结果可以得出什么结论？

• Only ~1.8% of Bitcoins are circulating on the network. The remaining 98.2% are lying in accounts in anticipation of growth.
  网络上仅流通约1.8％的比特币。 剩下的98.2％属于预期增长的账目。

• BTC growth is not in accordance to the law of supply and demand. For comparison, Visa’s total volume — $8.9 trillion, payments volume — US$ 6.3 trillion (this is 70% of total number).

  BTC的增长不符合供求规律。 相比之下，Visa的总金额为8.9万亿美元， 付款金额为6.3万亿美元(占总数的70％)。

• The growth of cash transaction volume is proportional to the growth of market capitalization. And this does not increase in percentage.

  现金交易量的增长与市值的增长成正比。 并且这不会增加百分比。

Earlier, I was convinced that the growth of BTC occurs because of the growth of cryptocurrency distribution. But it’s not so.

早些时候，我确信BTC的增长是由于加密货币分布的增长而发生的。 但事实并非如此。

My previous statement, “If there were no such people who changed BTC to pizza, Bitcoin wouldn’t cost what it does today”, didn’t make sense. I want to emphasize that I didn’t wonder what exactly was the proof of the current BTC exchange rate. I was curious to find the cause. And the correlation between capitalization and level of difficulty is clear.

我之前的声明“如果没有这样的人将BTC更改为披萨，比特币将不会花费今天的成本”，这没有任何意义。 我想强调一点，我并不奇怪当前BTC汇率的确切证据。 我很好奇找到原因。 大小写和难度之间的相关性很明显。

Thus, we got surprising regularity. On one hand, the cost of transactions (difficulty) grows according to the monetary volume of these transactions. This increases together with the market formed by and large by miners. But, this “balance of payments” is provided by only 1.8% of total Bitcoins in number. And if capitalization was comparable to Visa, then an operation of US$ 1 requires US$ 1,400 worth of electricity. US$ 19.35 * Visa’s total volume / market cap of Bitcoin. Furthermore, there are fees in Bitcoin — the cost of Internet, equipment, etc.

因此，我们得到了令人惊讶的规律性。 一方面，交易成本(难度)根据这些交易的金额而增长。 这与矿工和大型矿工组成的市场一起增长。 但是，这种“国际收支”仅由总比特币数量的1.8％提供。 如果资本可与Visa媲美，那么1美元的运营需要1,400美元的电费。 US $ 19.35 * Visa的比特币总量 / 市值 。 此外，比特币要收费-互联网，设备等的费用。

The difficulty of Bitcoin mining is regulated artificially. And it is directly proportional to the cumulative computing power of the network. In statements that Bitcoin is a bubble, you certainly heard my previous arguments. Yes, if all nodes are disconnected from the network, except one old computer, it will get Bitcoins with the same speed of the whole network today. And “if all nodes are disconnected”, someone will begin to compute blocks in the opposite direction and the network will be hacked.

比特币挖矿的难度是人为调节的。 它与网络的累积计算能力成正比。 在有关比特币是泡沫的声明中，您当然听到了我以前的论点。 是的，如果除一台旧计算机之外的所有节点都与网络断开连接 ，它将以与当今整个网络相同的速度获得比特币。 而“ 如果所有节点都断开连接 ”，某人将开始以相反的方向计算块，网络将被黑客入侵。

It is known that the speed of Bitcoin mining is constant and doesn’t depend on the total volume of computing capacities. Therefore, I wanted to look at the changing of difficulty level and revenue of miners. But as nothing was available, I have created the chart reflecting how many units of difficulty matched to US$ 1 throughout all time. There has been an almost exponential growth of computing power. This has led to the increased profitability of Bitcoin mining in recent times. This is due to the amazing growth of BTC price, of course.

众所周知，比特币的挖掘速度是恒定的，并不取决于计算能力的总量。 因此，我想看看矿工的难度水平和收入的变化。 但是由于没有可用的数据，我创建了一个图表，该图表反映了始终有多少单位的美元与1美元相匹配。 计算能力几乎呈指数增长。 这导致近来比特币采矿的盈利能力提高。 当然，这是由于BTC价格的惊人增长。

With such a market, the irrationality of operating where the sum made is less than the cost of operation becomes prevalent. But how long and quickly will these capacities increase is unknown. And don’t forget that Block Reward Halving comes nearer every day.

在这样的市场中，总和小于经营成本的经营不合理性变得普遍。 但是，这些容量增加多长时间和多长时间尚不清楚。 并且不要忘记，“ 块奖励减半”每天都在临近 。

There are no doubts that electricity cost of the transactions has a limit. And if miner farms begin to close, then computing capacities will begin to decrease. In consequence, the cost of the transaction will lower to a certain norm, when it will stop to seem irrational.

毫无疑问，交易的电力成本是有限的。 如果矿工场开始关闭，那么计算能力将开始下降。 结果，交易的成本将降低到一定的标准，而这将不再显得不合理。

但是，当这一切发生时，BTC汇率会下跌吗？ (But when all this happens, will the BTC exchange rate fall?)

I think an attentive reader will say “Yes”. We have defined correlation of capitalization with miners and have revealed this vicious circle. Yes, but it doesn’t mean that BTC exchange rate will fall. We learned that contradiction with the law of supply and demand doesn’t prevent Bitcoin growth. Payment balance doesn’t allow adhering to that 20%, described by the economist Adam Smith. So why does our regularity have to remain? Bitcoin would cost as much as the market pays for it. And the economy, as George Soros had once mentioned, can’t be objective because the subjective human will always be its last element. Bitcoin exchange rate is our empirical understanding of cryptocurrency. But, it’s surprising how contradictory this idea is.

我认为细心的读者会说“是”。 我们已经定义了与矿工资本的相关性，并揭示了这种恶性循环。 是的，但这并不意味着BTC汇率会下跌。 我们了解到，与供求规律相抵触并不能阻止比特币的增长。 支付余额不允许秉承的是20％， 说明由经济学家亚当·斯密。 那么为什么我们必须保持规律性呢？ 比特币的价格将与市场支付的价格相同。 正如乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)曾经提到的那样，经济不可能是客观的，因为主观的人永远是其最后一个要素。 比特币汇率是我们对加密货币的经验理解。 但是，令人惊讶的是这个想法多么矛盾。

翻译自: https://www.freecodecamp.org/news/antinomy-of-bitcoin-44a4654358c3/

比特币怎么比特币钱包