《原则》-第五章（风险守恒定律）

CHAPTER 5

DISCOVERING  RISK PARITY

发现风险守恒定律

By the mid-1990s, Ihad enough money to set up a trust for my family, so I began to think aboutwhat the best asset allocation mix for preserving wealth over generations wouldlook like. In my years as an investor, I had seen all sorts of economic and marketenvironments and all kinds of ways that wealth could be created and destroyed.I knew what drove asset returns, but I also knew that no matter what assetclass one held, there would come a time when it would lose most of its value.This included cash, which is the worst investment over time because it losesvalue after adjusting for inflation and taxes. I also knew how difficult it wasto anticipate the swings that cause those losses. I’ve devoted my life to itand I’ve made myshare of bad calls; anticipatingthese swings wasn’t something I’d bet on others doing well when I wasn’taround. Finding investors who have done well in all economic environments—wheninflation rises and when it falls, when there are booms and when there arebusts—is like finding needles in a haystack, and they don’t live forever sothat’s not a viable path. I didn’t want the wealth I had created to protect myfamily to be wiped out after I was gone. That meant I had to create a mix ofassets that could be good in all economic environments.

I knew which shifts inthe economic environment caused asset classes to move around, and I knew thatthose relationships had remained essentially the same for hundreds of years.There were only two big forces to worry about: growth and inflation. Each couldeither be rising or falling, so I saw that by finding four different investmentstrategies—each one of which would do well in a particular environment (risinggrowth with rising inflation, rising growth with falling inflation, and soon)—I could construct an asset-allocation mix that was balanced to do well overtime while being protected against unacceptable losses. Since that strategywould never change, practically anyone could implement it. And so, with helpfrom Bob and Dan, I created a portfolio mix that I could comfortably put mytrust money in for the next hundred or more years. I called it the “All WeatherPortfolio” because it could perform well in all environments.

Between 1996 and 2003I was the only “client” investing in it because we didn’t sell it as a product.But in 2003, the head of Verizon’s pension fund, a longtime client, told us hewas looking for an approach to investing that would do well across allenvironments. After Verizon made its investment, others quickly followed, and adozen years later we were managing nearly $80 billion. It was anotherindustry-shaping concept. Seeing its success, other investment managersfollowed with their own versions. It is now generically called “risk parity”investing.

译文：

1990年代中期，我已经有足够的钱给我的家庭建立一份信托基金，所以我开始思考怎样的资产分配组合是最佳的对于保值。在我的投资生涯里，我见识了所有种类的经济和市场环境以及全部的各种创造和摧毁财富的方法。我明白资产回报的驱动力，但我也明白不论持有何种资产，总有一天资产会损失绝大部分价值的。这里面包括现金，现金是随着时间最坏的投资因为随着通胀和税负现金会随之损失价值。

我也明白预测造成损失的摆动原因是多么的困难。我已经为之奉献我一生，；预测这些摆动原因不是别人能替代的，必须我自己来。要发现在各种经济环境下都能干的很棒的投资人—当通货膨胀，通缩时，当存在风险，当破产时—就像大海捞针，通常也没有一条现成的路可走。我可不想我死之后我身前一手打造的财富就像风一样被吹走。那意味着我必须制定一套符合资产-可以在任何经济环境下给我的家庭带来保障。

我知道究竟是什么造成资产类型在经济环境中的变动原因，我也明白那些其中的关联已经根深蒂固好几百年了。只有两大势力值得担忧：增值性和通胀。每一种都既可能上升也可能下降，所以我通过观察四种不同的投资策略得出了-每一种策略在在特定环境下都能运行良好（提高增长带来提高通胀，提高增长带来通缩，或者诸如此类的）--我能构建一套资产分配组合可以在抵御不可接受的损失外还能保持良好的运营。如果那个策略永不改变，尤其是任何人都能运用它。就这样在鲍勃和丹的帮助下，我制造了一套投资组合，我可以把我信任的钱放进去一百年或者更久。我管着叫“全天候投资组合” 因为他在任何环境下都能表现良好。

1996至2003年间，我是这个投资组合唯一的客户，因为我们不能以产品的方式出售他。但2003年，美国威瑞森电话公司抚恤金基金的头，我们的一个长期客户，告诉我们他正在寻找一个可以在任何环境下运行良好的解决方案。威瑞森依据我们的策略做了投资后，其他的公司快速跟进，十几年后我们已经掌管着接近800亿美金的资产。他是另一个工业塑形的概念。看到他成功，其他投资经理人开始套用他们自己的版本。现在统称为“风险守恒”投资。

读后感：我们都听过《质量守恒》，《物质守恒定律》，第一次听说风险守恒定律。好吧，我承认自己孤陋寡闻，不过我觉得这个定律可能是对的。上学的时候我就知道了《人品守恒定律》，《友情守恒定律》。

请关注下一节：我也很着急到底是什么组合能在任何环境下运作良好？这种万能药我们几乎不敢相信的。但是作者吊胃口的功夫很高，下一节再没有实际的内容，我就fXXX了。