讲真看英文就是头疼。
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
2017 saw cryptocurrencies swing wildly in valuations daily. Despite a mostly upward trajectory, the market remains susceptible to unpredictable and sometimes extreme fluctuations in prices.
While some of this volatility can be attributed to how the current cryptocurrency model was conceived—namely its deflationary nature—and the fact that most coins are still viewed mainly as investment and speculative assets, there have been external factors that drive price momentum as well.
The increased spotlight on Bitcoin and its digital contemporaries led the original cryptocurrency to skyrocket in value. This meteoric rise results in widespread market participation, inviting retail investors in droves to the crypto industry. However, it also focused the gaze of governments and international actors on the industry, a factor that has and could still play a large role in this volatility, especially if past regulatory efforts are any indication.
A prominent example of how regulations can lead to unintended consequences in financial markets comes courtesy of the post-crisis Dodd-Frank Act. Due to the restrictions placed on deposit-taking banks, many prominent financial institutions were forced to reduce their market-making activities in certain asset classes to reach higher capital ratios required by the regulations. In effect, the reduction in market-making liquidity harmed the price discovery process. Especially in the bond market, which is not as liquid as foreign exchange or stock markets, it can conceivably result in a snowball effect that amplifies directional price movements instead of reducing overall volatility.
Despite regulators’ best intentions, cryptocurrencies’ values remain heavily tied to speculation and optimism. For this reason, drastic policy changes can have an outsized impact on short-term direction, as several prominent examples revealed over the past year.
Nonetheless, the long-term impact is slightly hazier, as many of these regulations are only months old. Even so, while they could lead to a more stable market in the future, an abundance of questions surrounding the matter shows just how effective regulations will really be, and to what degree they will impact prices in the future.
Why regulations affect prices
The original boom in cryptocurrencies occurred in an unregulated environment. Even as news outlets and investors paid closer attention to the market, regulators and international actors remained largely distant from the action, and prices continued to soar unabated.
Why regulations affect prices
While in 2017 regulatory bodies take their first steps toward reining in the market, the previous near-decade saw cryptocurrencies evolve and grow relatively unrestricted. For regulators, this means attempting to box in a system that grew chaotically mostly by design.
This trend was largely visible thanks to the explosive growth in ICO funding many Blockchain companies attained last year. In 2017 new Blockchain-based companies reach an unheard-of $4 bln in funding even as regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission began to circle. The capital raising was not without its flaws, with several well-publicized incidents underlining the relative lawlessness of the current model.
Hartej Sawhney - Co-founder of Hosho – a Blockchain and smart contracts auditing and security firm who’ve seen and audited a vast amount of smart contracts noted:
"There is currently no regulatory body that is enforcing standard practices for companies within the Blockchain ecosystem.
The number of successful high-profile attacks and data breaches are also indicative of the security weaknesses that many companies and organizations have, but choose to ignore due to lack of regulation which is a big factor to the volatility of cryptocurrency prices.
Sophisticated projects within the Blockchain ecosystem will only grow a stronger support from investors and exchanges upon the rise of a regulatory environment.
Having clarity on laws is better than none. Gibraltar is a great example of a nation that has made its stance on regulation of the Blockchain space clear, thus companies globally are flocking to incorporate there."
This ‘wild west’ the cryptocurrency market catalyzed has had a psychological impact on investors. Due to the decentralized nature and lack of power structures inherent in cryptocurrencies, many view regulations as a tactic that could stunt this explosive growth, and reduce the volatility that has been a hallmark of the industry.
Market reaction
The result is a market in which news or speculation of upcoming regulation leads to massive moves in one direction or another, as investors rush to sell off coins or purchase them, creating instability in prices and wild swings in valuations. Bitcoin, for example, lost nearly half of its value as popular exchange Coinbase launched an internal investigation into fraudulent practices and potential market manipulation on their platform.
Market reaction
More recently, prices of most cryptocurrencies dropped significantly after South Korean regulators announced they would ban crypto trading entirely, or at least implement significant controls on the market.
Market reaction
The result was a more than 15% slide in Bitcoin, while Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and most other major cryptocurrencies lost double digits amounts in market capitalization within hours.
But not all regulations result in negative shocks. After the South Korean government changed its tack and sounded a more positive note, cryptocurrencies quickly reversed their slide and generated significant upward momentum.
Even before that, Japan’s public and outward embrace of cryptocurrencies helped push Bitcoin prices to then-historic highs.
Market reaction
After falling to near $3,000 following a Chinese ban on cryptocurrencies in September, prices leapt by 96 percent to $5,855 following the news. The country’s announcement of Bitcoin’s legalization as a payment method drove a new frenzy in Asia to buy cryptocurrencies.
Adv. Aviya Arika, Head of Blockchain Innovation at Porat & Co. Law Firm, who has been dealing with uncertain regulatory environments for a long while, noted:
“Contrary to what your instinct may tell you, regulation actually makes cryptocurrencies prices flourish.
Regulatory uncertainty, as well as outright bans by governments, have proved to be harmful to the crypto markets.
When an investor/user is not sure about how they are going to be taxed when they sell their crypto, or about the mere legitimacy of their use of crypto, they will most likely steer clear of it altogether or just hodl until further notice. These behaviors lead to a bearish market.
However, when regulators shed light on the way they view cryptocurrency, investors and users feel more certain regarding the way they can use crypto, whether it be as a medium of exchange, a financial instrument or any other form.
Generally speaking, I think that as more jurisdictions regulate and clarify legal statuses of cryptocurrencies, crypto markets will become substantially more stable and widely adopted.”
Furthermore, cryptocurrencies’ introduction into mainstream investments has proven uneven at best. When the Chicago Board Options Exchange announced it would start offering Bitcoin futures contracts, trading was halted three times in six days after prices swung too far, triggering alerts and downtime.
Market reaction
Overall, user sentiment still outweighs cryptocurrencies’ abilities to retain value, and the divergence from real-world assets, such as gold, means that speculation and knee-jerk reactions will continue to have an outsized impact on price fluctuations.
The Long-term remains hazy
Even with the increased attention being paid to the sector, cryptocurrencies remain a mystery to many financial observers who attempt to project prices. Despite its nearly 10-year existence, the cryptocurrency industry remains very much in its infancy. Regulators have only recently started to think of ways to restrain some of the more dangerous practices that abound in the market, but have run into challenging headwinds.
Most recognize that blockchain—the underlying technology that supports cryptocurrencies’ many popular features—is a vital component of the future, but regulating the broader market has so far proven to also put a damper on the blockchain sector.
Moreover, ICOs remain a serious concern for governments and regulators considering their high vulnerability to fraud, theft, hacking, and other unethical practices.
The sector’s young age also makes it difficult to measure the long-term impact of regulations. Even after its most violent price swings, Bitcoin prices have self-corrected, as do most other cryptocurrencies. The real effect regulations across the globe will have is becoming clearer, but the picture remains murky.
2018 should be an important measuring stick as to how regulations impact the industry. In the meantime, investors need to always remain vigilant considering more and not less regulation is on the horizon, likely spurring violent reactions in the short-term while rendering long-term investment strategies a haphazard guess at best.
这种JB英文你们也看不懂，来点实际的，2018年的随着比特币的疯长，各个地区的开始出现什么监管政策，我只能说有JB用。为什么监管的越严重，比价总是正着上涨的？
就像宝二爷这JB，我喜欢，憨厚老实，不想币圈里的老大那么装逼，进群还不给谈钱，前两天宝二爷不是被从那个叫啥来着，非常火的微信群，3点钟无眠区块链微信群里踢出来了，帝君真羡慕里面的人那么多钱，加起来有一万亿那么多的资产，就因为宝二爷在群里说了大实话，就是为了钱。哎呀，后来又被拉进去，说了一两句话，又他妈被踢了，真刺激。过山车一般，我只能二宝你说瞎说什么大实话。
Q:有人预测18到20年，区块链会大崩盘，二爷怎么看待这个预测？
郭宏才:你们看看各个群里面都已经不是原来的咱们币圈、盘圈里的人了。现在你们再看看各个群里面都是什么人，都是投资圈的VC圈的。这些人还没有进来呢，他们也在观望。
你想想这些人进来以后下一步要干什么，我的理解是，这些人互联网的流量都很大。因为他们都有互联网的产品。他们都是VC行业投了无数的钱，砸了很多的互联网项目，有互联网用户有大量的数据。有大量的流量啊，他们呢，一旦接了盘买了币以后就开始琢磨怎么样让更多的人接盘。而且他们有能量，能量很大。他们能够让自己的这个项目找到无数的接盘的人，所以说这个这些人进来以后就另外一个天地了，我觉得他们这些人才会把比特币搞到一百万美金呢，只靠我们这点人是不行滴，得靠这帮人，这帮人想赚更大的钱。
Q:山寨币和主流币 那些更值得投资？
郭宏才:说白了比特币以外全是山寨币。因为比特币交易量符合实际，一点儿不刷单啊，比特币在总交易量不只是占到百分之三十，应该能占到百分之五十真实的交易量了。说白了哪个山寨币不做市值维护啊，哪个ICO币不刷单呢，好多交易所还配合着刷单。所以说，只有比特币才是王道，其他都扯淡。
那么多山寨币，大家在山寨币上炒着炒着赚了钱，还是回到主流币，这是人性啊。大家一会儿说，比特币并不好，山寨币各种好，这好那好。核心比较简单，就是跟上比特币的节奏就行了，没有比特币将来都扯淡啊，比特币才是王道，你们有这个思路才能挣币啊，挣币才是王道。
Q:对于投资的建议
郭宏才:那我们说一说这么多收割机来收割咱们怎么办。我觉得啊，尽量少投资，就选一两个成功概率高的大项目，少投，精选。
Q:区块链技术有没有真实的的意义，还是只是炒币？
郭宏才:目前市场先行，先以炒币赚钱为主，有了赚钱效应就有无数的项目方开始研究区块链，也就是说技术人员会把区块链的实际意义去做出来。这个是先由市场先行，技术是靠后的。
Q:行业目前有没有泡沫？如果有泡沫有多大，有什么时候破灭？破灭是体现什么状态？
郭宏才:泡沫只能越来越大，因为吹泡沫的人越来越多，越来越牛，所以呢，泡沫会被吹得更大。互联网上参与的人太多了，所以大家要不就加入一起吹，要不然就反对，靠边站看着别人发财。所以说吹泡沫的人的数量会急剧增多，币圈不再是原来那个币圈了，现在的互联网圈会全部会变成币圈的。所以说，除非互联网泡沫破了，互联网泡沫只要破不了。区块链泡沫会更大，这就是我的一个判断。
Q:区块链的趋势影响力有没有互联网大，下一个二十年会不会是区块链时代了？
郭宏才:下一个时代全是币的时代，各种币都在互联网上直接能用，而且直接能交易，而且有各种的价值。这个产生的一个巨大的市场就是无数的互联网项目，原来不可能上市的等于全上市了，而且上市公司的市值很多都会萎缩，全部会变到互联网下面。全球几十亿用户全部变成token的持有者，大家就在全球玩币就行了，这就是趋势，大家就不玩儿股票了，纳斯达克也好有纽交所也好，各种股票市场也好，全部会变得没有意义。
就以王教授说的茅台币为例，如果茅台币发出来，你们想想还需要什么茅台股票？一夜之间茅台的股票就会蒸发，就归零了，因为大家买的茅台币，每一个币都是一瓶茅台，还可以提货呢，是吧。只是把未来三十年的茅台，今天就全卖完了，甚至未来五十年的茅台。
一出台政策比特币就开始跌的严重了，熊市开始来了，庄家开始大量的买币，随后一波小高潮，牛市来了，韭菜们又开始买进了，又来一波熊市，庄家又开始买币，又来一波牛市，韭菜又开始买进了，就这样来回的波动，韭菜发现自己的币和资金越来越少，而庄家越来越多币，越来越多钱，总的来说再怎么波动，币价都是正着又涨了。
就这样来回的波动，心跳啊，每天都盯着这个价格。韭菜们就是这样来回被割，昨天社群里有一个朋友就问我，帝君EOS跌那么多，出没，我出尼玛，我说，要不然你低价卖给我，然后我又买了10000个EOS，心里偷偷笑，活该当韭菜。
趁现在币价还低all in进来，放到钱包等待革命胜利，为了革命帝君也捐献了1200万，等着和帝君一起泡妞，吹牛逼，马尔代夫，沙滩上打Pao,我喜欢。