saas 商业模式风险
Unless you’ve been living under a rock the past few years (or you just don’t care about stocks/tech at all), you’ve probably heard about SaaS (Software as a Service). As a group, SaaS stocks have done amazingly well relative to both the broader market and the tech sector:
除非过去几年一直生活在困境中(或者根本不关心股票/技术)，否则您可能听说过SaaS(软件即服务)。 作为一个整体，相对于更广阔的市场和科技行业，SaaS股票的表现都非常出色：
Part of the reason is that the pandemic has shifted many employees to working from home, and so investors expect businesses to become even more reliant on SaaS vendors than before in order to keep operating as usual. But that can’t be all there is to it. SaaS has been one of the hottest trends for years — if your company was fortunate enough to be classified as SaaS, it received an earnings multiple many times that of non-SaaS software vendors. And if there were no earnings, no problem, your company got a sweet price-to-sales multiple instead.
造成这种情况的部分原因是，该流行病已将许多员工转移到了在家工作，因此，投资者希望企业比以往更加依赖SaaS供应商，以保持正常运转。 但这不可能是全部。 SaaS多年来一直是最热门的趋势之一-如果您的公司足够幸运地被归类为SaaS，则其收益是非SaaS软件供应商的许多倍。 而且，如果没有收入，没有问题，那么您的公司将获得可口的销售价格倍数。
So what is it about SaaS that lets these companies be perceived so much more optimistically than their peers? More importantly, do SaaS companies possess business models that are differentiated and advantageous enough to justify the hype? Let’s explore!
那么，SaaS是什么让这些公司比同行更乐观？ 更重要的是，SaaS公司是否拥有差异化且优势足以证明炒作合理的商业模式？ 让我们来探索！
什么是软件即服务？ (What Is Software As A Service?)
SaaS is a subcomponent of the broader cloud computing sector. Back in the day before cloud computing, a company needed to buy its own servers, storage, and networking hardware. Then it needed to install an operating system and basic software. And finally, it then installed end applications (using CD-ROMs, remember those?) or hired engineers to write and maintain its own applications that did everything from tracking payments to vendors to sharing, archiving, and visualizing data.
SaaS是更广泛的云计算行业的子组件。 回到云计算的前一天，一家公司需要购买自己的服务器，存储设备和网络硬件。 然后，需要安装操作系统和基本软件。 最后，它随后安装了最终应用程序(使用CD-ROM，还记得吗？)或雇用工程师编写和维护自己的应用程序，这些应用程序完成了从跟踪付款到供应商到共享，归档和可视化数据的所有工作。
You can imagine what a headache this was. Often, it was difficult enough just to keep everything running. Updating widely used company software like corporate email or Microsoft Windows was considered a major and massively risky event. Many companies with overworked and understaffed IT departments opted instead to go with the, “if it ain’t broken, don’t fix/upgrade it” approach. For example, at a previous job, I used a laptop running Windows 2000 in 2011!
您可以想象这是多么令人头疼。 通常，仅保持所有内容运行非常困难。 更新被广泛使用的公司软件(例如公司电子邮件或Microsoft Windows)被认为是重大且风险很大的事件。 相反，许多IT部门工作人员过多和人手不足的公司选择采用“如果没有损坏，就不要修复/升级”的方法。 例如，在上一份工作中，我在2011年使用了一台运行Windows 2000的笔记本电脑！
This meant that software consumers were often missing out on the latest and greatest features. It was also a headache for software vendors. For example, in 2011, Microsoft still needed to devote engineers to support Windows 2000 and all the other older versions of Windows that were used by important corporate customers. If it could just get everyone on the current version of Windows, then it could spend its effort iterating and improving the current version as well as developing the next version instead of wasting time fixing bugs and fighting fires on obsolete software.
这意味着软件使用者经常会错过最新和最出色的功能。 这对于软件供应商来说也是一个头疼的问题。 例如，在2011年，Microsoft仍需要聘请工程师来支持Windows 2000和重要公司客户使用的所有其他较旧版本的Windows。 如果它可以使所有人都使用Windows的当前版本，那么它可以花费精力来迭代和改进当前版本以及开发下一个版本，而不是浪费时间修复错误并为过时的软件扑朔迷离。
Enter cloud computing. Cloud computing re-envisions the software (and hardware) tech stack as a utility. Much as things like electricity or internet are plug and play (requiring zero thought from consumers), the cloud computing sector aims to do the same for businesses and their software needs.
输入云计算。 云计算将软件(和硬件)技术堆栈重新设想为实用程序。 就像电力或互联网之类的即插即用(要求消费者零思考)一样，云计算部门旨在为企业及其软件需求做同样的事情。
Nowadays instead of setting up their own data centers, companies can sign up for AWS (Amazon Web Services). Doing so allows companies to tap into as much of Amazon’s vast computing capacity (Infrastructure as a Service) as they need. There’s also operating systems and a whole host of nuts and bolts software that’s ready to go with it (Platform as a Service).
现在，公司可以不用注册自己的数据中心，而可以注册AWS(Amazon Web Services)。 这样做使公司可以根据需要利用Amazon的大量计算能力( 基础设施即服务 )。 还有一些操作系统和一整套准备就绪的螺母和螺栓软件( 平台即服务 )。
And finally there’s an entire ecosystem of software vendors , the SaaS industry that this post is about, that develops software applications which meet specific needs like messaging (Slack), video meetings (Zoom), or analytics (Tableau). These applications take corporate pain points that are widely shared across companies and address them with software solutions, which are subscription based and delivered over the internet.
最后，还有一个完整的软件供应商生态系统，即该帖子所涉及的SaaS行业 ，它开发的软件应用程序可以满足特定需求，例如消息传递(Slack)，视频会议(Zoom)或分析(Tableau)。 这些应用程序具有公司痛点，这些痛点在公司之间广泛共享，并通过基于订阅并通过Internet交付的软件解决方案来解决。
SaaS与传统软件有何不同？ (How Is SaaS Different From Traditional Software?)
A question many might have is how SaaS is any different or better than traditional software. Since it almost seems like another world, let’s run through some of the key characteristics, as a refresher, that defined software in the pre-SaaS software era:
许多人可能会提出一个问题，即SaaS与传统软件有何不同或更好。 由于似乎几乎是另一个世界，让我们回顾一下定义SaaS之前的软件时代的软件的一些关键特征：
- Instead of one standard product like right now, traditional software came in the form of many versioned products (Windows 2000, Windows XP, Windows Vista, etc.). 传统软件以许多版本产品(Windows 2000，Windows XP，Windows Vista等)的形式出现，而不是像现在这样的标准产品。
- Enhancements were mainly bug fixes and significant new features were reserved for newer versions (otherwise there would be little motivation to upgrade). 增强功能主要是错误修复，并且为较新的版本保留了重要的新功能(否则，升级的动力很小)。
- Software vendors mainly got paid when customers upgraded to a new version. Ongoing servicing costs post installation were also a lesser but still significant source of revenue. 当客户升级到新版本时，软件供应商主要获得报酬。 安装后的持续维修费用也较少，但仍然是重要的收入来源。
- Installation of new software and major updates to that software were both major endeavors in terms of time, money, and risk. This incentivized consumers of software to stay with the existing version for as long as possible. 就时间，金钱和风险而言，新软件的安装和对该软件的重大更新都是主要的工作。 这激励了软件的消费者尽可能长时间地使用现有版本。
Software was run on-premise on the customers’ own servers.
软件在客户自己的服务器上本地运行。
- On the flip-side, for software vendors, the ongoing maintenance of older versions dragged significant resources away from research and development and was generally regarded as a financial drag. For vendors, there was an incentive to depreciate older versions of software over time in order to motivate customers to upgrade to (and spend money on) the latest and greatest version. 另一方面，对于软件供应商而言，对旧版本的持续维护将大量资源从研发中转移了出来，通常被认为是财务上的拖累。 对于供应商而言，有一种动机是随着时间的流逝而对旧版本的软件进行折旧，以激励客户升级到最新的，最好的版本(并在上面花钱)。
This meant that like a car, from the moment you purchased new software, it was depreciating — less support devoted to it over time and suboptimal features compared to newer versions.
这意味着就像汽车一样， 从购买新软件起，它就开始贬值 -与较新版本相比，随着时间的流逝，对汽车的支持减少，功能次优。
This also meant that the combination of hardware, tech stacks, and applications used by individual companies were massively variant with big differences across both vendor and version (because data centers and software installations were all on-premise). And software vendors could provide value by being more willing than their peers to make their application work across various configurations — willingness and ability to customize used to be a source of differentiation.
这也意味着各个公司使用的硬件，技术堆栈和应用程序的组合是巨大的变体，在供应商和版本之间都有很大的差异( 因为数据中心和软件安装都是本地的 )。 而且软件供应商可以通过比其他厂商更愿意使他们的应用程序跨各种配置工作来提供价值-过去，定制的意愿和能力已成为差异化的源泉。
SaaS eventually turned all this on its head. In the SaaS era, software is:
SaaS最终将所有这些都抛在了脑后。 在SaaS时代，软件是：
Subscription based.
基于订阅 。
Generally, there is only one version, the most current one.
通常， 只有一个版本 ，最新版本 。
And that version is hosted on the software vendor’s servers (that they either own or lease). A side benefit of this is better analytics into how customers are using the software.
该版本托管在软件供应商的服务器上 (它们拥有或租赁)。 这样做的附带好处是可以更好地分析客户使用软件的方式。
Customers access the software via the internet in much the same way as we watch YouTube or use Gmail.
客户通过互联网访问软件的方式与我们观看YouTube或使用Gmail几乎相同。
And that version is constantly being updated as bugs are fixed and new features are rolled out. These updates happen behind the scenes without any required actions from the customer (they occur on the vendor side and are pushed to all customers simultaneously upon release).
随着错误修复和新功能推出，该版本会不断更新。 这些更新发生在幕后，无需客户采取任何必要措施(它们发生在供应商端，并在发布时同时推送给所有客户)。
SaaS era software is constantly improving as new updates roll in while the cost remains fixed (same ongoing subscription fee). There is even the potential for cost declines as more customers allow the SaaS vendor to spread its fixed costs over a larger base (and SaaS software has little in the way of variable and marginal costs — once developed, it costs almost zero to bring on a new customer).
随着新更新的推出， SaaS时代软件正在不断改进 ，而费用却保持不变(相同的持续订阅费用)。 随着更多的客户允许SaaS供应商将其固定成本分散到更大的基础上，甚至存在成本下降的可能性(而SaaS软件几乎没有可变成本和边际成本的方式，一旦开发，其成本几乎为零。新客户)。
And as the data center moves off-premise and increasingly to the cloud, the hardware and software that companies run on become increasingly modularized. I am somewhat overly simplifying things, but nowadays it is more like selecting from a streamlined one page menu whereas before it was more like a thousand page catalog of endless options and combinations.
随着数据中心迁移到非内部部署并越来越多地迁移到云中， 公司运行的硬件和软件也越来越模块化 。 我在某种程度上简化了事情，但是如今，它更像是从简化的一页菜单中进行选择，而在此之前，它更像是无休止的选项和组合的一千页目录。
The last two points have the biggest business implications. Being able to offer more value for the same price (or a declining price) is huge for customer retention. As is the fact that modularization via a simpler menu of cloud offerings has done away with much of the stress and headache of installing and maintaining a data center and its software (this represents substantial financial cost savings for customers as well). Moreover, the easier it is to set up and use new software (and the cheaper that software is), the more likely customers are to consider a software solution for areas they wouldn’t have in the past — where 10 years ago, an Excel spreadsheet (and a team of analysts to manage it) might have been a clunky but good enough solution, today it would probably be replaced by a SaaS solution.
最后两点具有最大的业务影响。 能够以相同的价格(或价格下降)提供更多的价值对于保留客户至关重要。 事实上，通过更简单的云产品菜单进行模块化已消除了安装和维护数据中心及其软件的许多压力和头痛(这也为客户节省了可观的财务成本)。 此外，安装和使用新软件越容易(该软件越便宜)，客户就越有可能考虑他们过去没有的领域的软件解决方案 -10年前，Excel电子表格(和一组分析人员来管理它)可能是一个笨拙但足够好的解决方案，今天它可能会被SaaS解决方案取代。
So I don’t think it’s hyperbole to state that SaaS has significantly increased the size of the market and types of end applications that are considered addressable by software. And as more companies move to the cloud and conduct more of their day to day business via the web, that migration in itself creates new markets and business opportunities such as cloud-centric cyber security.
因此，我认为声明SaaS大大增加了市场规模和被认为可以通过软件寻址的最终应用程序类型并不夸张。 随着越来越多的公司迁移到云中并通过网络开展更多日常业务，这种迁移本身就创造了新的市场和商机，例如以云为中心的网络安全。
SaaS股票是高增长的风险押注 (SaaS Stocks Are A Risky Bet On High Growth)
Everything I described is well and good. But is there more? SaaS companies trading at 30 times sales (compared to 1.6 for the S&P 500), often with no earnings and substantial losses.
我描述的一切都很好。 但是还有更多吗？ SaaS公司的交易量是销售额的30倍(标准普尔500指数是1.6)，通常没有收益，也没有实质性亏损。
This means that the future that investors envision for these companies is one of sustained and massive growth and eventually significant profits. But the SaaS model seems easily replicable — nowadays every software company that wants to solve some sort of business problem with their application will adopt a SaaS approach (single version hosted vendor side, web-based delivery, and subscription based).
这意味着，投资者对这些公司的展望是持续的，巨大的增长以及最终可观的利润之一。 但是SaaS模型似乎很容易复制-如今，每个希望通过其应用程序解决某种业务问题的软件公司都将采用SaaS方法(单版本托管卖方，基于Web的交付和基于订阅的)。
And the SaaS blueprint for scaling is also pretty set at this point:
此时，用于扩展的SaaS蓝图也已确定：
- Raise a ton of money from venture capitalists and eventually an IPO. 从风险投资家那里筹集大量资金，并最终进行首次公开募股。
- Spend some of it developing and iterating the product. 花一些钱开发和迭代产品。
- Spend a lot of it acquiring customers (marketing expenses) in order to grow as quickly as possible. 花费大量资金来吸引客户(营销费用)，以便尽快增长。
- Hope that customer churn is low so that over time the cashflows produced by each cohort of new customers is greater than what it costed to acquire them (customer lifetime value > customer acquisition cost). 希望客户流失率较低，以便随着时间的推移，每组新客户产生的现金流都大于获取新客户的成本(客户生命周期价值>客户获取成本)。
This plan has a chance of working because the market is still somewhat young and unsaturated — new applications are still migrating towards SaaS software based solutions at the same time that businesses are considering automating more and more of their functions (starting with the most manual, error prone, and costly ones).
由于市场仍处于年轻和不饱和状态，因此该计划有可能奏效-新应用程序仍在向基于SaaS软件的解决方案迁移，同时企业正在考虑自动化越来越多的功能(从最手动，最错误的开始容易且昂贵的)。
And as businesses increasingly turn over the the automate-able aspects of their record keeping, data management, monitoring, and reporting to SaaS vendors (and become increasingly reliant on and tied to these vendors), the amount of customer lock-in that SaaS vendors enjoy will only increase. Thus, it’s conceivable that each customer ends up producing as much cashflow over its life as investors are betting they will.
随着企业越来越多地转移其记录保存，数据管理，监视和向SaaS供应商报告的自动化方面(并越来越依赖于这些供应商并与之绑定)，SaaS供应商的客户锁定数量享受只会增加。 因此，可以想象，每个客户最终在其生命周期内都会产生与投资者所期望的一样多的现金流。
At the same time, the SaaS industry faces significant risks. There is tremendous pressure to get to scale — the point where revenues are enough to cover both fixed development costs as well as customer acquisition costs (the majority of which are paid upfront). The latter point is also why currently the majority of SaaS vendors are operating at a loss — current expenses generally reflect all of both the R&D costs as well as the customer acquisition costs, but the offsetting subscription revenues trickle in slowly over time. In fact because customer acquisition costs (CAC) are upfront, a period of high growth at a SaaS company often looks like a period of larger and larger losses.
同时，SaaS行业面临重大风险。 扩大规模存在巨大压力-收入足以支付固定开发成本和客户获取成本(其中大部分是预付的)。 后一点也是为什么当前大多数SaaS供应商都处于亏损状态的原因-当前费用通常反映了所有研发成本以及客户获取成本，但是抵消的订阅收入随着时间的推移缓慢地滴流。 实际上， 由于客户获取成本(CAC)是前期的，因此SaaS公司的高增长时期通常看起来像是损失越来越大的时期 。
To see why this is, imagine our company spends on average $100 to acquire a customer and then earns $25 a year from that customer once acquired. If we acquire 10 customers this year, then at the end of the year our company will show revenues of $250 and expenses of $1,000 for a loss of $750. If instead we acquired 100 customers, we would show revenues of $2,500 and expenses of $10,000 and a much larger loss of $7,500. Of course, if the additional customers we got stay with us for a long time, then its money well spent. If they churn in a year or two, then we’re in trouble.
要了解为什么会这样，请想象我们的公司平均花费100美元购买一位客户，然后从该客户那里获得每年25美元的收入。 如果我们今年获得10个客户，那么到今年年底，我们公司的收入将为250美元，支出为1,000美元，亏损750美元。 相反，如果我们获得了100个客户，我们将显示出2500美元的收入和10,000美元的费用，以及更大的亏损7,500美元。 当然，如果其他客户与我们呆在一起很长时间，那么它的钱就用得其所。 如果他们在一两年内流失，那我们就麻烦了。
Another risk comes in the form of Big Tech. There’s nothing stopping cash-rich companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google from offering their own competing solutions and duking it out with the leading SaaS vendors via price wars.
另一个风险来自大技术。 没有什么可以阻止像亚马逊，微软和谷歌这样的现金充裕的公司提供自己的竞争解决方案，并通过价格战将其与领先的SaaS供应商一决高下。
Finally, it’s important to note that a major reason for the SaaS sector’s success up until now has been the willingness of venture capitalists and the equity markets to fund these companies at very high valuations. Without this inflow of easy capital, SaaS vendors would not have been able to market their products and acquire customers as aggressively as they do.
最后，必须指出的是，到目前为止，SaaS领域成功的主要原因是风险资本家和股票市场愿意以很高的估值为这些公司提供资金。 没有这种轻松的资金流入，SaaS供应商将无法营销他们的产品并像他们一样积极地获取客户。
结论 (Conclusion)
When I used to think about SaaS, the first (and only) thing that came to mind was that it’s subscription based. But after learning more about it, I realized that the following two reasons are more critical to its hype:
当我过去考虑SaaS时，首先想到的(也是唯一的)事情是基于订阅的。 但是在了解了更多信息之后，我意识到以下两个原因对其宣传更为关键：
- It allows customers to pay a fixed price for a constantly improving product. 它使客户可以为不断改进的产品支付固定价格。
- SaaS software’s ease of setup, maintenance, and use (and relative cheapness) has opened up more and more end applications to be automated via web apps. As each individual component of the cloud ecosystem improves, cloud computing’s total addressable market increases as well. SaaS软件易于设置，维护和使用(以及相对便宜)，已经打开了越来越多的最终应用程序，可以通过Web应用程序将其自动化。 随着云生态系统各个组成部分的改善，云计算的可寻址市场也随之增加。
That said, investing in SaaS stocks at this point in time is a high risk bet that the rosiest of customer lifetime value estimates and expected growth rates are realized.
就是说，在此时进行SaaS股票投资是高风险的赌注，因为可以实现最短的客户生命周期价值估算和预期增长率。
翻译自: https://medium.com/alpha-beta-blog/business-models-saas-software-as-a-service-65a6a9a9dd14
saas 商业模式风险