欢迎关注柠檬外刊!，我是和你们共同学习打卡并进步的柠檬同学！今天我们学习的是0627期经济学人封面的文章也是Leaders部分的文章: The next catastrophe
从这张图片，我们可以看见和谐的一家子坐在沙发上，但是诡异的是所有人都带了防护用品，要么是口罩，要么是头盔。而且从沙发后的背景墙我们也可以看见各种灾难的照片，如火山爆发，病毒，行星撞地球等等。
那么，今天的精读从这里就正式开始啦！
Governments routinely ignore seemingly far-out risks. Rocked by a global pandemic, they need to up their game.
这里是本篇经济学人简单的摘要。从这个简短的摘要我们可以大概了解这篇文章主要是谈论政府要如何对未知的危险未雨绸缪。
1. routinely adv.例行地;常规地;通常地 Eg：Astronomers routinely say that astrology has no scientific basis.天文学家例行公事地说占星术没有任何科学根据。
2. rock v. (使)轻轻摇晃；惊吓；使震惊；使害怕；(使)剧烈摇摆[在此处]
rocked by = influenced by
[拓展]on the rocks（关系或生意）陷于困境，濒临崩溃 Eg:Sue's marriage is on the rocks. 苏的婚姻触礁。
3. up one's game 提高某人的水平
Step Up One’s Game
Paraphrase:work to advance to a higher level of a competition
For example:“You need to step up your game if you want to win the championship. Sanchez is going to be very difficult to beat.”
注意: Although this comes from sports, it may be used for any kind of competitive situation.
翻译:政府通常会忽略那些看似遥远的危机。而这场全球性的疫情爆发则给他们带来一场重击，这也警醒他们，是时候提高自己的水平了。
In 1993 this newspaper told the world to watch the skies. At the time, humanity's knowledge of asteroids that might hit the Earth was woefully inadequate. Like nuclear wars and large volcanic eruptions, the impacts of large asteroids can knock seven bells out of the climate; if one thereby devastated a few years' worth of harvests around the globe it would kill an appreciable fraction of the population. Such an eventuality was admittedly highly unlikely. But given the consequences, it made actuarial sense to see if any impact was on the cards, and at the time no one was troubling themselves to look.
1. asteroid n.行星
2. woefully adj. 悲哀的；悲惨的；遗憾的；不幸的 副 词: woefully
近义词：[adj.] sorrowful, inferior
反义词：[n.] joyful, superior
词组｜习惯用语
woeful eyes 忧郁的眼神
Woefully Ignorant 可悲无知
woefully underfunded 资金不足的
woefully inadequate 严重不足; 能力严重不足; 远远不够的;
3. beat seven bells out of / knock seven bells out of
[British informal]to give a severe beating to 给…带来巨大损失；给…带来重击
4. appreciable adj. 可预见的, 可估计的;增值的;相当可观的
副 词: appreciably
近义词：[adj.] considerable
反义词：[n.] inconsiderable
词组｜习惯用语
appreciable impact 显著影响
appreciable growth/increase 可观增长
appreciable error 显著误差；粗差；可察觉误差
appreciable proportion 适当比例; 翻译; 适当比例
appreciable system 评价体系
appreciable variety 有希望的品种; 珍贵品种; 有前途的品种;
5. eventuality n. (尤指令人不快的)可能发生的事情，可能出现的结果
6. admittedly adv. (尤用于句首)诚然，无可否认
7. make sense to 有意义；讲得通；言之有理
in a sense 在某种意义上
make sense of 搞清…的意思
no sense 不必；没道理
in the sense of 从…意义上说
in a broad sense 广义上讲
8. on the cards
on the cards adv. 可能
cards on the table 公开的计划；摊在桌面上的牌
9. at the time 在那时,那时候
at the same time 同时；然而
in time 及时；适时
all the time 始终,一直
on time 按时,准时；按时付款
at a time 一次；每次；在某时
no time 无时；一会儿功夫
from time to time 不时,有时
some time 在未来的某时,一段时间；一些时间；经过若干时间
翻译: 在1993年，我们经济学人报纸就提醒大家要注意天空中的未知了。在这个期间，人类对于可能会撞击地球的行星知识极其地缺乏。比如核战争，大型火山喷发，行星撞地球，这些都会给严重地影响气候；一旦其中一种灾难因此而摧毁了几年的收成，那么极大一部分数量的人口也会因此死亡。这样的事我们通常认为是不大可能发生的。但是考虑到它的影响，从保险计算的意义上来看，如果这种事真的可能会发生，在当时也不会有什么人会未雨绸缪。
Asteroid strikes were an extreme example of the world's wilful ignorance, perhaps—but not an atypical one. Low-probability, high-impact events are a fact of life. Individual humans look for protection from them to governments and, if they can afford it, insurers. Humanity, at least as represented by the world's governments, reveals instead a preference to ignore them until forced to react—even when foresight's price-tag is small. It is an abdication of responsibility and a betrayal of the future.
1. wilful adj. 任性的；故意的（=willful）
2. atypical adj.非典型的 atypical pneumonia [医]非典型性肺炎
a-：该前缀可表示“状态、在…上、向…”如：awake；abed；aback； 可表示“非、不”如adynamic：无精力的；可表示“强调”如：abyss：深渊；地狱
3. a fact of life 无可争辩的事实
4. preference～prefer
1) prefer sth.
"Do you like French?""Yes, but I prefer English.""你喜欢法语吗?""喜欢,但是我更喜欢英语。"
注:prefer是"比较喜欢,更喜欢"的意思,即like better,因此就不能再与better, more等比较级词语连用。
2) prefer over sth.
I prefer over this newly-built lab. 我比较喜欢这个新建的实验室.
3) prefer sth. above all others
I prefer the book above all others. 我最喜欢这本书。
4) prefer A to B
I prefer the original book to the revised edition. 我觉得原书比修订本好。
5) prefer doing A to doing B
注:在这种结构中,to为介词,而不是不定式符号,故其后应当接动名词形式,决不能接动词原形。
6) prefer to do sth.
7) prefer doing sth.
注: 这种prefer后面接动名词的结构,用来谈论一般情况下"更喜欢某种活动",而在一个特定场合下表示"特别喜欢"时,得用上述prefer后接动词不定式结构。(可联想到like/love等）
8) prefer to do sth. rather than do sth.
These workers prefered to work extra hours at night rather than leave the work until the next week. 这些工人宁愿加班干,也不愿把工作留到下一个星期。
注:这种结构中的rather than可以置于句首。例如:
Rather than go on holiday to the seaside I prefer to work days and go to school nights. 我宁愿白天工作,晚上上学,而不愿到海边度假。
注:有时rather可以移至第一个不定式之前,而让than留在第二个不定式之前,即为prefer rather...than结构.这种用法多见于书面语言,在口语中很少用.
9) prefer to do sth. rather than doing sth.
They prefer to join in the celebrations rather than going on a visit to the Palace Museum. 他们宁愿参加庆祝活动而不愿参观故宫。
注:有时名词也可用于rather than之后,这种用法多用以表示在某种具体场合的选择。
10) prefer sb. to do sth.
11) prefer+that-clause.在that宾语从句中,我们应当用虚拟语气"should+动词原形",其中的should可以省略。
We prefer that each new student take a science course. 我们希望每位新生修一门理科课程.
12) prefer sth. /sb.+adj.
I prefer the door open. 我宁愿门开着。
翻译: 小行星撞击地球是世界有意无视的一个极端例子，但也可能是个典型的例子。小概率，高影响事件的发生是无可争辩的事实。人类会向政府或保险公司(如果他们能支付得起的话)寻求保护。所谓人性(至少是政府的典型代表)即使所要付出的代价很小，也总是在事情到了避无可避的地步时，才不会忽略它。这是一种责任感的丢弃也是一种对未来的放任。
第一、二段: 借行星撞地球这一灾难引出政府在灾难面前的表现。
Covid-19 offers a tragic example. Virologists, epidemiologists and ecologists have warned for decades of the dangers of a flulike disease spilling over from wild animals. But when SARSCOV-2 began to spread very few countries had the winning combination of practical plans, the kit those plans required in place and the bureaucratic capacity to enact them. Those that did benefited greatly. Taiwan has, to date, seen just seven covid-19 deaths; its economy has suffered correspondingly less.
1. spill over 溢出
spill the beans 泄密；说漏嘴
spill out （使）溢出，（使）溅出；突然涌出；说出（真相、内情）
spill into 涌进
2. kit n. 衣物和装备；成套用品；配套元件
tool kit 工具箱
sewing kit 针线包，裁缝用具
medical kit 医药箱
first-aid kit 急救箱
drum kit 一套鼓乐器
3. the bureaucratic capacity官僚能力
4. to date 至今；迄今为止
up to date adj. 最新的；最近的；现代的
down to date 最新的；现代化的
month to date 月累计；月初到现在；本月至今累计
up to date technics 现代化的技术
bring up to date 使现代化
keep up to date 使记到最近时期；赶上时代潮流
date back to 追溯到；从…开始有
5. suffer
suffer from 忍受，遭受；患…病；受…之苦
suffer for 因…而遭受
suffer loss 遭受损失
suffer through 挨过；熬过
suffer defeat 遭受失败
suffer hunger 挨饿
翻译：Covid-19就是一个悲惨的例子。病毒学家、流行病毒专家和生态学家早在几十年前就已经警告大家关于从野生动物身上传出来的疾病所造成流感的风险。但是当 SARSCOV-2 开始蔓延开来时，几乎没有什么国家提出比较实际的计划组合，这些计划实施所需的装备以及能正常实施他们的官僚能力。而那些实施了这些措施的国家都受益匪浅。台湾到目前为止只出现了七例新冠肺炎的死亡病例，它的经济也只遭受了比较小的损失。(这里不是翻译内容，只是想强调一下台湾并不是一个国家)
第三段:例举了此次新冠病毒的例子
Pandemics are disasters that governments have experience of. What therefore of truly novel threats? The blazing hot corona which envelops the Sun—seen to spectacular effect during solar eclipses—intermittently throws vast sheets of charged particles out into space. These cause the Northern and Southern Lights and can mess up electric grids and communications.
1. novel （熟词生义）adj.新奇的；新颖的
She was attracted by the novel advertisement.
她被这新颖的广告吸引住了。
2. solar eclipse [天] 日食
partial solar eclipse [天] 日偏食
total solar eclipse [天] 日全食
（日食，是一种天文现象，只在月球运行至太阳与地球之间时发生。这时，对地球上的部分地区来说，月球位于太阳前方，因此来自太阳的部分或全部光线被挡住，看起来好像是太阳的一部分或全部消失了。日食只在朔，即月球与太阳呈现合的状态时发生。）
3. intermittently adv. 间歇地
Did you hear the intermittent sound outside?
你听见外面时断时续的声音了吗?
翻译：大流行病毒也是政府已经经历过的灾难了。那么那些全新的未经历过的灾难呢？笼罩着太阳的炽烈热电晕-在日食期间可看到壮观的景象-间歇性地将大量带电粒子带出太空。这些会引起北极光、南极光，并可能使电网和通信混乱。
But over the century or so in which electricity has become crucial to much of human life, the Earth has never been hit by the largest of these solar eructations. If a coronal mass ejection (cme) were to hit, all sorts of satellite systems needed for navigation, communications and warnings of missile attacks would be at risk. Large parts of the planet could face months or even years without reliable grid electricity (see Briefing). The chances of such a disaster this century are put by some at better than 50:50. Even if they are not that high, they are still higher than the chances of a national leader knowing who in their government is charged with thinking about such things.
（百度百科：日冕物质抛射（CME）是从太阳的日冕层抛射出来的物质，通常可以使用日冕仪在白光下观察到。抛射出来的物质主要是电子和质子组成的等离子（此外还有少量的重元素，例如氦、氧和铁），加上伴随着的日冕磁场。当抛射物抵达地球时被称为行星际日冕物质抛射，这可能会扰乱地球磁层，压缩向日面和使背日面延伸成尾状。当在背日面的磁层重连结时，它创造出数兆瓦特能量，从地球后方倾入上层大气。此过程造成特别强的极光（常出现在北极的称北极光，在南极则称南极光）。日冕物质抛射事件伴随着耀斑，会破坏无线电的传输，造成能量耗损（断电），并对人造卫星和电力传输线造成损害）
3. be at risk 处于危险之中
4. not that 常表示“强调”， “没有那么”
翻译：但是，这一个世纪以来，电已成为人类生活中至关重要的一个资源，地球从未遭受过其中最大的太阳爆发的袭击。一旦发生日冕物质抛射，则导航，通信和导弹袭击警告所需的各种卫星系统都将处于危险之中。地球的大部分地区可能面临数月甚至数年没有可靠的电网电力的时期。（请参阅简报）。一些人认为，本世纪发生此类灾难的可能性要高于50:50。即使可能性没有那么高，它们仍然比国家领导人知道谁在政府中负责思考相关事情的可能性要高。(讽刺政府放任事情发展)
第四段: 例举了日冕物质抛射的例子，体现了其将会带来的巨大影响并讽刺批判了一些政府。
The fact that no governments have ever seen a really big CME, or a volcanic eruption large enough to affect harvests around the world—the most recent was Tambora, in 1815—may explain their lack of forethought. It does not excuse it. Keeping an eye on the future is part of what governments are for. Scientists have provided them with the tools for such efforts, but few academics will undertake the work unbidden, unfunded and unsung. Private business may take some steps when it perceives specific risks, but it will not put together plans for society at large.
Admittedly, neither the Earth's volcanoes nor the Sun's corona can be controlled. But early-warning systems are possible, and so is thought-through preparedness. Historically active volcanoes near large cities, such as Fuji, Popocatépetl and Vesuvius, are well monitored, and there are at least plans for evacuation should it seem necessary. It would not be that hard to extend this sort of care to all potentially climate-altering volcanoes.
1. thought-through 深思熟虑的
2. alter
change: 指任何变化，完全改变，强调与原先的情况有明显的不同。
alter: 常指轻微的改变，强调基本上保持原物、原状的情况下所进行的部分改变。
vary: 暗示不规则或断断续续地变。
convert: 指进行全部或局部改变以适应新的功能或用途。指信仰或态度时，强调较激烈、大的改变。
modify: 强调起限定作用的变化或变更。指细小的变化，常含“缓和、降调”的意味。
transform: 指人或物在形状、外观、形式、性质等方面发生的彻底变化，失去原状成为全新的东西。
turn: 指外形、颜色、气味、性质等方面的变化，比change更通俗。
翻译：不可否认，地球的火山和太阳的日冕都无法控制。但是预警系统是可做的，深思熟虑的准备工作也是可能的。大城市如富士，波波卡佩特彼勒和维苏威火山附近的历史悠久的活火山都受到了严密的监测，如果有必要，至少也要有疏散计划。将这种保护扩展到所有可能改变气候的火山并不难。(火山的喷发不仅仅会因为灰尘上升至平流层形成粉尘遮挡阳光，还会因为生成的二氧化硫的水汽凝结壳造成大量的降水，从而影响收成)
第六段: 例举火山爆发，提出预防建议。
Governments could also ensure that grid operators have plausible plans for what to do if DSCOVR, a satellite that hangs between the Earth and the Sun, provides a half-hour warning that a cme is on its way, as it is designed to do. Ensuring that there are offline backups for some vital bits of grid equipment would be more expensive than a volcano-alarm, and would reduce, not eliminate risk. But it would be worth the effort.
1. plausible adj. (声明、争论等)似乎是真的；花言巧语的, 能说会道的
While Plausible 尽管看似可信
plausible scenario 似是而非的场景
Plausible deniability 合理的推诿; 而非的否认; 怕承担责任; 合理推诿;
Plausible reason 猜想
Plausible deniability 合理的推诿
翻译：各国政府还可以确保，如果悬挂在地球与太阳之间的卫星DSCOVR提供了长达半小时的日冕物质抛射来临的警告，电网运营商将制定合理的计划。确保对电网设备的某些重要部分进行离线备份将比火山警报更加昂贵，并且它只会减少（而不是消除）风险。但这依然值得付出努力。
第七段:例举日冕物质抛射灾难，提出预防建议。
Nor would it be that hard to provide better early warning of possible pandemics. Stopping all transmission of new pathogens from wild animals is a fool's errand—though putting a limit on the most intensive farming and egregious exploitation of wild ecosystems would help. But, again, risk can be reduced. Monitoring the viruses found in animals and people where such transfers seem most likely is eminently feasible (see Science section). For countries to trust each other to do so might be a challenge; so would achieving the sort of transparency which would make such trust unnecessary. But if there were ever to be a moment to try, it is surely today. Before the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 there were few earlywarning systems for tsunamis. Now, thankfully, there are many.
1. pathogen n.病菌；病原体
2. errand n. 差事；差使；使命
fool's errand 徒劳的奔波；徒劳无功的工作
go on errands 出差
3. put a limit on 限制
4. 虚拟语气：文章多次用到虚拟语气，同学们要去复习哦（在柠檬外刊对话框回复“虚拟语气即可查看复习）
翻译：为可能的流行病提供早期预警也不难。阻止所有野生动物的新病原体传播是一个愚蠢的事儿(不可能的事儿)，尽管对过度开垦和野生生态系统的过度开发的限制将有所帮助。但是，我要再次强调，我们可以降低灾难的风险。监视在最有可能发生此类转移的动物和人中发现的病毒是非常可行的（请参阅“科学”部分）。对于各国而言，彼此信任可能是一个挑战；同样，实现某种程度的信息透明化也是一个挑战，如果说各国都实现了信息透明化，那么彼此信任也就没有必要了。但是，如果说世界上需要一个尝试的时机，那就是此时此刻了。在2004年印度洋海啸来临之前，很少有海啸预警系统。但好在现在已经有很多了。
第八段:例举若流行性疾病再次爆发，提出预防建议
It might seem quixotic to insist on esoteric preparedness when there are greater threats staring the world in the face, including catastrophic climate change and nuclear war. But this is not an either/or. The structural changes needed to reduce climate risks—changes many countries are now pursuing, if with insufficient urgency—are of a different order from those needed under other headings.
1. quixotic adj. 堂吉诃德式的,愚侠的,不切实际的
副 词: quixotically 名 词: quixotism
近义词：[adj.] impractical
反义词：[n.] practical
Quixotic goal 唐诘诃德式的目标;不切实际的目标
Quixotic Knight 爱幻想的骑士
翻译：当面对更大的威胁，包括灾难性的气候变化和核战争时，坚持一些很遥远神秘的准备似乎不切实际。但这不是一个选择题。减少气候风险所需的结构性变化（这也是许多国家目前迫切需要进行的变化)，如果没有达到足够的紧迫性，那么与其他项目下的结构相比，它的次序也将不同。
What is more, the approaches which make sense for arcane threats have implications for more familiar ones, too. Thinking about risk reduction, rather than elimination, should encourage steps such as taking nuclear weapons off continuous alert and new approaches to arms control. Taking environmental monitoring more seriously could help provide an early warning for sudden shifts in the patterns of climate disruption, just as it could detect rising magma under faraway mountains of which the world knows little.
1. arcane adj. 晦涩难解的；神秘的；秘传的
2. implication n. 暗示；牵连，卷入；含义
形容词: implicative
hint: 最常用用词，多指无意中的，间接的暗示。
implication: 指对某事不公开发表自己的意见，仅用语言动作或表情表明态度，要对方进行推断。
suggestion: 既可指比较明显的暗示，又可指客观上流露出的迹象。
翻译：而且，对于那些晦涩难懂的威胁有着意义的方法对我们所更熟悉的威胁也有着启示意义。关于减少而不是消除风险的思考应鼓励采取诸如解除核武器警戒状态和采用新的军备控制方法的措施。更加认真地进行环境监测可能有助于为气候紊乱模型的快速转变提供预警，就像它可以检测到世界上鲜为人知的遥远山脉下的岩浆上升的情况一样。
第九段: 给预警方案提出建议: 要学会从已发生的事物中得到启发；风险难以消除，但可以降低；认真对待监测任务。
Scanning the future for risks and taking proper note of what you see is a mark of prudent maturity. It is also a salutary expansion of the imagination. Governments which take seriously ways the near future could be quite unlike the recent past might find new avenues to explore and a new interest in sustaining their achievements well beyond a few turns of the electoral cycle. That is exactly the sort of attitude that stewardship of the environment and the containment of armed conflict require. It can also be a relief. Almost all the large asteroids which can come close to the Earth have now been found. None is a near-term threat. The world is not just a demonstrably safer place than it seemed. It is also a better place for having found it out.
1. prudent adj. 谨慎的；节俭的；精明的
副 词: prudently 反义：imprudent
careful: 侧重做事谨慎、留心，特别注意一些细节地方。
cautious: 着重考虑事情的后果，谨慎留意，防止出差错。
attentive: 指认真地注意地倾听别人的意见，留心别人的需要等。
prudent: 指遇事审慎，思考计划周密，不贸然行事。
2. maturity n. 成熟;成熟期;发育完全；(金融)到期
at maturity 到期；成熟时期
maturity date 到期日
maturity stage 成熟阶段
debt maturity 债务的给付日期
sexual maturity 性成熟；性成熟度
maturity value 到期值（本金加利息）
3. stewardship n. 管事人之职位及职责；管理工作
product stewardship 产品监管
environmental stewardship 环境管理
brand stewardship 品牌管家; 品牌管家之道;
Stewardship Code 管理守则; 管理职责法;
审视未来的风险并妥善记录您所看到的内容，这是审慎成熟的标志。这也是想象力的有益扩展。认真对待将来与近期不同差别，始终保持一种敏锐的识别变化的状态的政府可能会找到新的探索途径，并有新的兴趣保持其成就，纵使经历了几轮的选举周期也不会轻易变化。这正是管理环境和遏制武装冲突所需要的态度。当然我们也可以松口气。现在已经发现了几乎所有可以靠近地球的大型小行星。没有一颗会造成近期威胁。这个世界不仅会成为一个看起来更安全的地方。它也会成为一个更美好的地方。
第十段:做出总结，我们整个世界不仅仅要关注已发生的灾难，也要关注未来可能发生的灾难。做好万全准备，打造一个更安全更美好的世界。
哈，今天的经济学人精读就到这啦，喜欢的小伙伴们不妨点个赞啊！我是你们共同学习打卡的柠檬同学，我们下期再见！
因为是第一次做，对于文章结构或排版有建议的同学，可在评论下方提出，我都会一一阅读并改正的；对于文章内容有误或不足的地方也请同学们在评论下方提出，我们大家一起学习，一起进步吧！