快速决策的五个秘诀

信得过的顾问

沃顿商学院教授Michael Useem讲了个故事，说他曾经问思科的CEO John T. Chambers，你为什么决策那么迅速，尤其在那么多大体量的并购重组的案子里。Cambers笑了，说，我都咨询我身边的这位CFO（Larry Carter）；关键是，他不会惦记着我的位置，他提的建议充满了authenticity（真实、可靠性）。Useem教授说，这是特别重要的一件事：在决策者身边，无论组织内或组织外，一定要有你信得过的、没有利益冲突，且特别有能力的人来为你提供咨询意见。

追踪实时数据

除了咨询这类建议之外，快速决策还有一个重要的要素：追踪实时数据，而非滞后的数据。几周之后，当你的手下准备好数据的时候，一切都变了。我读了斯坦福教授Kathleen M. Eisenhardt的论文Speed and Strategic Choice: How Managers Accelerate Decision Making，其中她提到：一定要追踪实时信息。开会！盯高频数据。不要等季报、年报这种滞后的财务数据，要盯着现金流、客流、利润率这些实时更新的数据。一周两三次高强度的会议是家常便饭。需要避免的是没有deadline或者计划可以无限延后。

有一家模范公司，自上而下，对关键目标指标都滚瓜烂熟，大家心往一处使，成就成功。在这家公司里，大家尽可能使用电子邮件或面对面会议，而尽可能避免被网络（memo）这种形式。（当然，在中国语境下，电子邮件如果查收不够频繁的话，也是滞后的。开会！及时开会！）

构建多个并行的可替代性

很多组织的行为都是：只向一个方向做准备，这条路断了，再去考虑另一条路。这种单一、线性的决策思路是缓慢、低效的。相反，多个、同时的候选方案可以在直观上进行比较，从而比较容易选出更合适的方案。这是第一个好处。第二个好处则是，当第一候选方案失败或者停滞时，快速的决策者将能够毫不犹豫地转向第二候选方案，而不是像线性决策者那样需要重新研究考虑。

换言之，线性决策者往往研究得更深，却失之于广。

解决冲突

决策讨论中，冲突很正常。缓慢的决策者试图取得一致意见，或者拖延到deadline才不得不拍板；快速有效的决策者则勇于拍板。“The functional heads do the talking .. . I pull the trigger.”

寻求共识是一厢情愿的做法。更严肃地说，如果你希望寻求共识，那就意味着参与会议的每一个人都拥有否决权。——想想联合国安理会常任理事国吧。这是一个触目惊心的联想。如果管理者试图让自己的组织决策像联合国安理会那样缓慢而低效，那就尝试协商一致吧！

整合决策

缓慢的决策者认为决策是一个巨大的、重要的决定，而快速有效的决策者会知道，每一次迅速的决定都只是体系的一部分。

复习一下这五个秘诀。

总结来看，没有什么是一成不变的，快速决策才能有效应对快速变化的现实。正所谓，“天下武功，唯快不破”。

2020年4月29日

注：

Michael Useem is Professor of Management and Faculty Director of the Center for Leadership and Change Management and McNulty Leadership Program at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. His university teaching includes MBA and executive-MBA courses on management and leadership, and he offers programs on leadership and governance for managers in the United States, Asia, Europe, and Latin America. He works on leadership development with many companies and organizations in the private, public and non-profit sectors. He is the author of The Leader’s Checklist, The Leadership Moment, Executive Defense, Investor Capitalism, Leading Up, and The Go Point. He is also co-author and co-editor of Learning from Catastrophes; co-author of The India Way, Leadership Dispatches, Boards That Lead, and The Strategic Leader’s Roadmap; and co-author of Fortune Makers: The Leaders Creating China’s Great Global Companies (2017), Go Long: Why Long-Term Thinking Is Your Best Short-Term Strategy (2018), and Mastering Catastrophic Risk: How Companies Are Coping with Disruption (2018). Mike is co-anchor for a weekly program “Leadership in Action” on SiriusXM Radio Channel 132, Business Radio Powered by the Wharton School, and he can be reached at [email protected].

Kathleen Eisenhardt is the Stanford W. Ascherman M.D. Professor and Co-Director of the Stanford Technology Ventures Program. Her recent book (w/Don Sull) is "Simple Rules: How to Survive in a Complex World" (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt) which explores how simplicity tames complexity in business, life, and nature. She is also co-author (w/Shona Brown) of "Competing on the Edge: Strategy as Structured" Chaos (Harvard Business School Press), winner of the George R. Terry Book Award for outstanding contribution to management thinking and an Amazon Top 10 Annual Business and Investing book. Professor Eisenhardt is also author of over 100 articles in research and business journals, and the first author featured in Harvard Business Review's OnPoint collection. She is a Distinguished Visiting Professor with Insead's Entrepreneurship and Family Enterprise area.Professor Eisenhardt's research focus is strategy and organization, especially in technology-based companies and high-velocity industries. She is currently studying the use of heuristics and other cognitive strategies, strategic interaction in new markets and novel ecosystems, and strategy making by boards of directors. She has received the career Scholarly Contribution Award from the Academy of Management and the Global Award for Entrepreneurship Research. She has been honored by many other awards including the Irwin Award for her contributions in strategy, the Distinguished Scholar Award from the Organization Theory and Management (OMT) and Technology and Innovation Management (TIM) divisions, the ASQ Scholarly Contribution award for the most influential paper five years after publication, and Strategic Management Society's Schendel Best Paper prize. She was recently noted as most cited research author in strategy and organization studies for the past 25 years. Professor Eisenhardt consults at senior levels with firms in industries ranging from Internet, telecommunications, software, and biotech to agribusiness, semiconductors, and clean tech.Professor Eisenhardt was elected a Fellow of the Academy of Management and of the Strategic Management Society, and is an INFORMS member. She has served on the editorial boards of ASQ, Organization Science, Academy of Management Journal, Academy of Management Review, Strategic Management Journal and Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal. She has been a Fellow of the World Economic Forum (Davos) and Clinton Global Initiative, a member of General Motors' Science Advisory Committee, and a board member of MWH Global, an international engineering design and construction firm. She serves on the Advisory Board of Start-Up Chile. Eisenhardt received her B.S. in Mechanical Engineering (Brown University, cum laude and with honors). She holds an M.S. in computer science. Her Ph.D. is from Stanford's Graduate School of Business. Professor Eisenhardt has several honorary degrees including from London Business School, Aalto University, and Chalmers University of Technology.