Roger's Big Bold Bets - 别相信KOL

发现我居然有不少英文读者，所以我决定中英放在一起写，因为中文不太好，如果看不明白的话请以英文为准。

上次那篇东西出来之后我发现大家都其实不太认识比特币，或者觉得比特币根本就是一个泡沫。其实这也不是大家的问题，或许只是大家只是看了太多垃圾新闻和财经报道。
So ever since last article I realised many of you guys doesn’t really understand Bitcoin, or consider bitcoin as another bursting bubble. I think you guys might just have watched too many rubbish financial articles.

为了帮助大家理清思路，在写策略之前我先来回应一下大家对于比特币的一些批评。
So to help clearing everyone’s mind, I’ll start by answering some of the criticisms on bitcoin before introducing new strategies.

一开始大家说比特币完全没有内在价值。这是完全正确的。但其实如果你细细想来，美元，人民币，黄金也是一样没有内在价值的。
The most initial criticism or Bitcoin is that it has no intrinsic value. And that’s entirely true, but neither does the US Dollar, RMB, or Gold.

之后大家开始把比特币和其他的一些大型企业比较，说比特币的市值怎么可能比GE/或者金拱门还高，这肯定是一个泡沫！
Then people start to compare Bitcoin with other large companies. They are so sure that Bitcoin is a bubble if it worths more than GE or Mcdonalds.

一个公司股票的价值 = NPV of 所有未来股息 (NPV of all future dividends)，这其实这也意味着股票本身是没有价值的。（我知道这样来比较比特币和股票的价值有点懒，因为股票是有现金/收入流的。）
The price of a stock in a company is the NPV of all futures dividends, and it actually implies that stocks itself has no intrinsic value. Of course I know it’s intellectually lazy to compare valuation of Bitcoin with other companies, because there are no income streams in a currency against a stock which does.

从他们以上这两个对比特币的批评看来，我觉得绝大部分的财经KOL都完全没有从根本上理解他们每天写的金融资产，他们对比特币特性及其价值定义的错误进一步说明了他们的无知。
This leads me to believe that most financial KOLs do not fundamentally understand any of the financial assets they write about everyday. Those mischaracterisation of Bitcoin and its value proposition further illustrates their ignorance.

上面这张图是比特币兑美元(BTC/USD)的图片，看着这张图会导致你相信比特币正处于泡沫并且即将破裂。
The above weekly graph of BTC/USD would lead you to believe that the Bitcoin is in bubble, which then might burst soon.

接下来我们看另外一张。
And here’s another graph.

这张图是1/比特币兑美元 (1/BTCUSD) 的图片，而看着这张图反而会导致你相信处于泡沫之中的是美元，随后破裂了。
This graph shows the weekly log graph of USD/BTC price since 2012. And on the contrary this chart would lead you to believe that the US Dollar is in bubble, which then burst.

那些垃圾财经报道不停用不同的图片来驱使你相信，所有不在他们控制范围的东西都是泡沫。但可恶的是，他们却很少提起过目前经济上疯狂的通胀，不合理的股市和房价等问题。CNBC会叫你（像上图一样）在2.57USD买Ripple，并且在之后0.71USD的时候叫你卖掉。
Now you know how the finance KOL keep messing with your mind and leading you to believe in their stupid shit. They make you think that everything not under their control are basically bubble, but they seldom mention the unreasonably high inflation, nor they warn people about risks involved in buying millions of dollars of cage homes and overpriced stocks. CNBC will evilly suggest you to buy Ripple at 2.57USD and sell at 0.71USD.

我无法证明比特币是值得现在的市场价格，但我想提醒所有人，别完全相信这些垃圾财经报道，因为他们和你是有直接的利益冲突的。如果你想在这个市场上赚钱的话，就必须要有一个能独立分析和理性的头脑。
I never intended to justify that Bitcoin deserves its current market-clearing price against fiat currencies, but I want to warn everyone of you that you should never trust financial KOLs, simply because they have conflict of interest with you. You need an independent and logical mindset to survive in the financial market.