第十一章 项目风险管理 Chapter 11 - Project Risk Management
11.0 Processes 7大过程
11.1 Plan Risk Mgmt. (P) - Defining how to conduct risk mgmt. on the project.
11.1 规划风险管理 - 定义如何在项目中开展风险管理。
11.2 Idenfity Risks (P) - Detecting risks that may affect the project.
11.2 识别风险 - 找到可能影响项目的风险。
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis (P) - Prioritizing risks by evaluating their probability and impact.
11.3 实施定性风险分析 - 通过评估风险发生的概率和影响来对风险排序。
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis (P) - Numerically analyzing the effect of risks on objectives.
11.4 实施定量风险分析 - 量化分析风险对项目目标的影响。
11.5 Plan Risk Responses (P) - Defining strategies and actions to address project risks.
11.5 规划风险应对 - 制定应对项目风险的策略和行动方案。
11.6 Implement Risk Responses (E) - Implementing planned risk responses.
11.6 实施风险应对 - 执行计划好的风险应对方案
11.7 Monitor Risks (M) - Tracking risks; identifying and analyzing new ones.
11.7 监控风险 - 跟踪已识别风险；识别分析新的风险。
Key Concepts 核心概念
Risk - An uncertain event that, if occurs, has a positive or negative effect on the project.
风险 - 一种不确定性的事件，一旦发生，会对项目造成正面或负面的影响。
Probability - How likely is the risk to happen?
风险概率 - 风险有多大的可能性会发生？
Impact - If the risk does happen, how good or bad will the effects be?
影响 - 如果风险确实发生，那么所带来正面或负面效应有多大？
Risk Register - Includes identified risks and response plans. Updated throughout risk planning.
风险登记册 - 已识别的风险的详细信息及应对措施，在风险规划过程中持续更新。
"Identify Risks" - Key Tools 11.2 识别风险 主要工具
Data Gathering 数据收集
- Brainstorming - General technique for identifying risks.
- 头脑风暴 - 识别风险的常规方法。
- Checklists - Used to determine if risks on past projects apply to our new project.
- 核对单 - 用来确定以往项目的风险是否适用于新项目。
- Interviewing - Interviewing experienced stakeholders and experts to identify risks.
- 访谈 - 与有经验的相关方和专家访谈来识别风险。
Data Analysis 数据分析
- SWOT Analysis - Helps identify potential risks; stands for strength, weakness, opportunity, threat.
- SWOT分析 - 协助识别潜在风险；分别表示S-优点、W-弱点、O-机遇、T-威胁。
- Root Cause Analysis (RCA) - Working to determine the underlying causes of an issue.
- 根本原因分析RCA - 用来设法确定问题发生的根本原因。
- Document Analysis - Reviewing document inputs to identify possible risks.
- 文件分析 - 审查输入文件来识别可能风险。
- Assumption Analysis - Identifying risks to the project from inaccuracy of assumptions.
- 假设条件分析 - 由假设条件的不准确性来识别项目风险。
"Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis" - "Data Analysis" Tools 11.4 实施定量风险分析 - 数据分析工具
Simulations - Simulates ("iterates") the effect of risks on project outcomes (Monte Carlo).
模拟 - 模拟风险对项目结果的影响（蒙特卡洛分析）。
Sensitivity Analysis - Assessing which risk could have the biggest impact on project outcomes.
敏感性分析 - 评估哪些项目风险会对项目结果具有最大的影响。
Decision Tree Analysis - Shows alternate paths through a project to support decision-making.
决策树分析 - 直观展示项目的多个可选路径来帮助决策。
Influence Diagrams - Shows effects between project variables (S-curves, tornado diagrams).
影响图 - 表现不同项目因素的影响（S曲线、龙卷风图）。
Negative Risk Response (Threats) 负面风险（威胁）应对策略
Avoid - Eliminate the threat or protect the project from its impact.
规避 - 将威胁的发生概率降为0%或保护项目免受影响。
Transfer - Shift the impact of a threat to a third party.
转移 - 将影响转嫁第三方。
Mitigate - Reduce the probability of occurence or impact of a risk.
减轻 - 降低发生概率或减少影响。
Accept - Acknowledge the risk and not take any action unless the risk occurs.
接受 - 承认风险的存在，不主动采取措施。
Escalate - For risks beyond the project's scope/authority, communicate them to the proper parties.
上报 - 超过项目范围/权限的风险，与恰当的方面进行沟通。
Positive Risk Responses (Opportunities) 正面风险（机会）应对策略
Exploit - Eliminate the uncertainty by ensuring the opportunity definitely happens.
开拓 - 将发生概率提升到100%。
Enhance - Increase the probability and/or positive impacts of an opportunity.
提高 - 提高机会出现概率，增强带来的正面影响。
Share - Allocaing ownership to a third party who is best able to capture the benefit.
分享 - 与最有能力把握机会的第三方分享。
Accept - Take advantage of the opportunity if it arises, but do not actively pursue it.
接受 - 承认机会的存在，不主动采取措施。
Escalate - For risks beyond the project's scope/authority, communicate them to the proper parties.
上报 - 超过项目范围/权限的风险，与恰当的方面进行沟通。