Global debt hit a new record high of $164 trillion in 2016, the equivalent of 225 percent of global GDP. Both private and public debt have surged over the past decade. High debt makes government’s financing vulnerable to sudden changes in market sentiment. It also limits a government’s ability to provide support to the economy in the event of a downturn or a financial crisis.
全球债务在2016年创下了164兆亿美元的新记录，相当于全球GDP的225%。过去几十年间，私人与政府部门债务激增。高负债使得政府财政易受市场中突变情绪的影响。同时也限制了经济下行或金融危机中，政府提供帮助的能力。
Countries should use the window of opportunity afforded by the economic upswing to strengthen the state of their fiscal affairs. The April 2018Fiscal Monitor explores how countries can reduce government deficits and debt in a growth-friendly way.
国家应当利用经济上行带来的窗口期机遇，以加强一国财政能力。2018年4月的《Fiscal Monitor》探索了如何在友好增长方式下，削减政府债务与赤字。
High government debt is a concern
高政府债务是个问题
Of the $164 trillion, 63 percent is nonfinancial private sector debt, and 37 percent is public sector debt. Advanced economies are responsible for most global debt. Nevertheless, in the last ten years, emerging market economies have been responsible for most of the increase. China alone contributed 43 percent to the increase in global debt since 2007. In contrast, the contribution from low income developing countries is barely noticeable.
在164兆亿美元中，63%是非金融私人部门债务，37%是公共部门债务。发达经济体对全球绝大部分债务负有责任。然而，在过去10年间，新兴市场经济体对大多数债务增长负有责任。从2007年起，仅中国就贡献了全球债务增长的43%。相反，低收入发展中国家的债务增长几乎可以忽略。
Public debt plays an important role in rising global debt. Debt-to-GDP ratios in advanced economies are at levels not seen since World War II. Public debt ratios have been increasing persistently over the past fifty years.
公共债务在上升的全球债务中扮演了重要角色。发达经济体的债务/GDP比率达到了二战来未曾有的水平。公共债务比率在过去的50年间持续上升。
In emerging market economies, public debt is at levels seen only during the 1980s’ debt crisis. For low-income developing countries, average public debt-to-GDP ratios are well below historic peaks, but it is important to recall that debt reduction from earlier peaks involved debt forgiveness. Moreover, low-income developing countries’ debt climbed 13 percentage points in the last five years.
在新兴市场经济体中，公共债务达到了仅在1980年债务危机中见到的水平。对低收入国家，公共债务/GDP比率远低于历史最高值，但要注意，在之前债务最高点的削减中包含了债务豁免。而且，低收入发展中国家的债务，在过去5年攀升了13个百分点。
Along with debt, the cost of debt service has been rising rapidly in low-income developing countries. The interest burden has doubled in the past ten years to close to 20 percent of taxes . The escalating cost reflects in part the increasing reliance on nonconcessional debt, as countries have gained access to international financial markets and expanded domestic debt issuance to nonresidents.
同债务一起，低收入发展中国家的债务服务成本也显著上升。过去10年间，利率负担翻了一番，接近税收的20%。上升的成本部分反映了对非优惠债务的依赖
There are several reasons why high government debt and deficits are a cause for concern.
有几个原因表明为什么高的政府负债与赤字令人担忧。
Countries with elevated government debt are vulnerable to changing financing conditions, which could hinder their ability to borrow, and put the economy in jeopardy. Furthermore, historical experience shows that high debt and deficits in a country increases the depth and duration of a recession—such as in the aftermath of a financial crisis—because governments are unable to deploy sufficient fiscal support to the economy, as discussed in theOctober 2016 Fiscal Monitor.
政府债务上升的国家易受金融环境变化的影响，这会阻碍他们借款的能力，并将经济推向危机。此外，历史经验表明，一国的高负债与赤字增加了萧条的深度与时间——比如金融危机的影响——因为政府无力调配充足的财政支持以恢复经济，October 2016 Fiscal Monitor对此进行了讨论。
Now is the right time to tackle high debt and deficits
现在正是解决高负债与赤字的时候
As growth gains momentum in most countries, fiscal stimulus to support demand is no longer appropriate. At the same time, fiscal multipliers, which measure the short-term impact of changes in taxes or spending on output, are expected to be smaller. This implies that the benefits from short-term fiscal stimulus are limited, and the economic costs of reducing debt and deficits relatively smaller. Reducing debt and deficits now will diminish a country’s vulnerability to changing market sentiment. It will also ensure that policymakers have sufficient resources to act in case of a downturn—precisely when fiscal multipliers are larger.
由于大多数国家的增长获得了动量，提振需求的财政刺激不再合适。同时，衡量短期税收或政府开支变动造成的影响的财政乘数指标，被预期会有所下降。这暗示了短期财政刺激带来的效果有限，削减债务与赤字的经济成本也相对更小。当下削减债务与赤字可以减小一国面对变化的市场情绪的脆弱性。同时能让政策制定者在经济下行时——财政乘数大的时候，有足够的资源去运作。
What should fiscal policy do?
财政政策应当做什么？
Overall, our forecasts indicate that debt-to-GDP ratios would come down over the next three to five years in most countries. But this hinges on countries delivering fully on their policy commitments. There is no room for complacency.
总的来说，我们预测未来3到5年间，大多数国家的债务/GDP比率会下降。但这取决于国家能否完全执行政策承诺。现在没有自满的余地。
Of note, public debt ratios are forecasted to come down in all advanced economies, except for one. In the United States, the revised tax code and the two-year budget agreement lead to an expansion in the level of economic activity until 2020. These measures will give rise to overall deficits above $1 trillion over the next three years, which is more than 5 percent of GDP. This adds to the rising trend in government debt, bringing it to 117 percent of GDP in 2023. Our forecasts are qualitatively similar to those recently published by the Congressional Budget Office .
要指出的是，除了一个国家，我们预测发达经济体的公共债务比率会下降。在美国，修改的税法和两年计划预案，使得经济在2020年处于扩展态势。这些措施会使未来3年，整体赤字上升至1兆亿美元以上，这超过GDP的5%。这助长了政府债务的上升趋势，将在2023年达到GDP的117%。我们的预测与最近公布的Gongression Budget Office性质上相似。
In the April 2018Fiscal Monitor, we urge policymakers to avoid fiscal policies that provide unnecessary stimulus when economic activity is already picking up. Instead, most advanced, emerging market, and low income developing countries should deliver on their fiscal plans, and put deficits and debt firmly on a downward path. They should also enact fiscal reforms that increase productivity and promote human and physical capital.
在2018年4月的Fiscal Monitor中，我们敦促政策制定者在经济上行时，避免制定提供不必要刺激的财政政策。反之，大多数发达的、新兴的市场，以及低收入发展中国家，应当以下行路径的方式，对待财政计划、赤字及负债。他们也应制定能够提升产能，振兴人力物力资本的财政改革。
It is imperative that low income developing countries strengthen their tax capacity. This will allow them to service their debt. It will also allow them to finance spending priorities—such as health, education and public infrastructure—to attain the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.
低收入发展中国家加强他们的税收能力势在必行。这使得他们可以偿还债务，
No one can predict the ebb and flow of countries’ economies. Prudent and successful governments prepare in good times to face the storms looming on the horizon.
没有人能预测国家经济的潮起潮落。谨慎成功的政府总是未雨绸缪。
prepare in good times to face the storms looming on the horizon 未雨绸缪
service one's debt 偿还债务
use the window of opportunity 抓住机遇期
the economic upswing 经济上行
reduce government deficits and debt 削减政府赤字与债务
in a growth-friendly way
debt forgiveness 债务豁免
nonconcessional 非优惠的
jeopardy 危险
aftermath 后果
deploy 配置
precisely 恰恰，就是
hinge on 取决于
complacency 自满
enact 制定
human and physical capital 人力和物力资本
imperative 势在必行，急迫的
ebb and flow 潮起潮落