If we observe carefully that which year is the youngest for Chinese population, the conclusion will surprise you a lot.
The answer is 1964.
In 1963, China had the highest fertility rate in the population. At that time, women had an average number of several children. Thanks to the high birth rate of 1963, 1964 was the youngest year for the Chinese population. The elderly accounted for less than 4% of the total population and the population under 14 years old exceeded 40%.
However, since 1964, China has continued to get older.
To consider whether or not a country is young or old, there will be four international standards to be measured:
So, I analyzed the first and second-tier cities in China where these wealth and talents are the most dense, and focusing on their age structure of the population. After detailed analysis, the following basic judgments can be figured out:
1. The aging of China’s population has been very serious. This is an irresistible phenomenon.
2. The Yangtze River Delta - one of the head regions of China's economy. The speed of aging is alarming and there are hidden concerns in the future;
3. China's regional competition will be determined by the population structure, and talent competition will become increasingly fierce;
4. In the headland dispute, the youngest Pearl River Delta has the greatest hope.
In the aspect of population
From the age structure of the population, the quadrupoles in China's first and second tier cities are:
The youngest city (the elderly accounted for the lowest ratio): Shenzhen.
The least prosperous city (minor child ratio): Shanghai
The oldest city (the elderly accounted for the highest ratio): Nantong.
The most invisible city in the future (highest percentage of young children): Guiyang
The following figure shows the oldest ten cities that were discharged according to the standard of “ratio of old people and young people”. China’s earliest (1979) entry into the aging city of Shanghai was finally on the list.
In this list, Shanghai and Wuxi replaced Jinan and Qingdao in the top ten of the previous list. However, none of the 8 cities that appear repeatedly will no longer prove that they are really old.
The data on the ratio of young and old in Nantong is surprising, even as high as 177%. Nantong accounts for nearly 20% of those over the age of 65, that is, there are 1 out of every 5 individuals older than 65 years old. It is a bit chilling to think about it.
In the aspect of age composition
In terms of the age structure of the population, the biggest finding is that the dispute over the head of China seems to have been settled. There are three metropolitan areas that form the fulcrum of China's economy: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta.
In terms of the economic intensity of first- and second-tier cities, the Yangtze River Delta, then the Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The Yangtze River Delta is still a region where the Chinese mainland is really close to being “evenly wealthy”, but when we look at the age structure, we have a deep sense of powerlessness in the Yangtze River Delta.
The urban population structure in the Yangtze River Delta is highly ageing, and it is almost the region with the most severe population aging in all first- and second-tier cities except the northeast.
In the 12 cities of the Yangtze River Delta, the overall population ratio is 10.8% for people under the age of 14 and 12.1% for those over the age of 65. The corresponding data for the 7 cities in the Pearl River Delta are 13.9% below the age of 14 and 5.8% over the age of 65.
In other words, the Pearl River Delta as a whole is of “adult type”, while the Yangtze River Delta is moderately “elderly”, with an average age of approximately 10-20 years old.
Take a look at the proportion of people under 14 years of age and over 65 years of age in these cities.
The contrast between these two figures is fairly clear. The Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta occupy two ends -
The 12 youngest cities, all 7 cities in the Pearl River Delta, and none in the Yangtze River Delta;
The oldest 10 cities have 6 cities in the Yangtze River Delta and none in the Pearl River Delta.
The proportion of people over the age of 65 is only 2 cities in the Yangtze River Delta are less than 11%, but only 1 city in the Pearl River Delta is higher than 8%; while the proportion of people under 14 years old is only 2 cities in the Yangtze River Delta are higher than 14%; The Pearl River Delta cities are basically all above 13%.
Older and younger people are more intuitive
About the 12 cities in the Yangtze River Delta, there are more than 70 in Taizhou and Jinhua, and more than 90 in Hangzhou. The rest are all over 100, and Nantong is as high as 177, probably the highest in China.
The 7 cities in the Pearl River Delta, the highest in Guangzhou, is only 61, which means that the oldest city in the Pearl River Delta is still younger than the youngest city in the Yangtze River Delta.
This gap means that even if the population structure of the Yangtze River Delta freezes, it will take 10 years for the Pearl River Delta to catch up with the Yangtze River Delta in its degree of deterioration. This demographic structure means that the PRD will have enormous advantages in terms of industrial planning, layout, and process inheritance over the next 10 to 20 years.
Considering that the Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao Bay Area have become the central core strategy, will the dispute over leading region of China come to an end? Let’s wait and see.
网媒1502 曾韵琪 20151302991