平行宇宙中covid-19大流行何时结束？

提示：想分几次讲一下，一个相对平行宇宙下，当covid病毒的B.1.616分支在国外爆发，主要资产价格如何变动，美联储政策如何走。（B.1.616宇宙）

下图是cov-lineages提供的B.1.616 谱系，该组织主要提供流行病谱系

-19大流行何时过去，我的看法比较悲观：除了中国以外，全球2024年都看不到结束的曙光，现在看来国内的防疫政策真是高瞻远瞩。

今天给大家介绍一种谱系代码为B.1.616的分支，这货比奥密克戎（Omicron）要厉害，从目前国外这种三天打渔两天晒网的防疫政策来看，B.1.616这样的高致死率分支一定会再次出现。

可以在outbreak上看到更多资料，我感兴趣的是下文，简单说一下，B.1.616特点就是PCR检出率低，重症率和致死率高（28 天死亡率 15/34 (44%)），当然我看了一下，感染者年纪偏大。（未完待续）

BackgroundIn early January 2021, an outbreak of nosocomial cases of COVID-19 emerged in Western France, with RT-PCR tests repeatedly negative on nasopharyngeal samples but positive on lower respiratory tract samples. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) revealed a new variant, currently defining a novel SARS-CoV-2 lineage: B.1.616. In March, WHO classified this variant as under investigation (VUI). We analyzed the characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 cases related to this new variant. MethodsClinical, virological, and radiological data were retrospectively collected from medical charts in the two hospitals involved. We enrolled patients with at least one of the following: i) positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR on a respiratory sample; ii) seroconversion with anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG/IgM; iii) suggestive symptoms and typical features of COVID-19 on chest CT scan. Cases were categorized as either: i) B.1.616; ii) variant of concern (VOC); iii) unknown. FindingsFrom January 1st to March 24th, 2021, 114 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria: B.1.616 (n=34), VOC (n=32), and unknown (n=48). B.1.616-related cases were older than VOC-related cases (81 years [73-88], vs 73 years [67-82], P<0.05) and their first RT-PCR tests were less often positive (5/34, 15% vs 31/32, 97%, P<0.05). The B.1.616 variant was independently associated with severe disease (multivariable Cox model HR 4.2 [1.3- 13.5], P=0.018), and increased lethality (logrank test P=0.01): 28-day mortality 15/34 (44%) with B.1.616, vs. 5/32 (16%) for VOC, P=0.036. InterpretationWe report a nosocomial outbreak of COVID-19 cases related to a new variant, B.1.616, poorly detected by RT-PCR on nasopharyngeal samples, with high lethality. Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSAmong the numerous SARS-CoV-2 variants described worldwide, only 3 are currently classified as Variant of Concern (VOC) by the WHO, since they are associated with either an increased risk in transmissibility, severity, or significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies: B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1 (Pango lineage nomenclature). With the ongoing circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in many places worldwide, the emergence of new variants may reduce the efficacy of vaccines and jeopardize our prospects to control the pandemic. In early January 2021, an outbreak of cases highly suggestive of COVID-19 despite negative RT-PCR tests on repeated nasopharyngeal (NP) samples was reported in Western France, leading to several nosocomial clusters. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) from lower respiratory tract samples identified a new lineage of SARS-CoV-2 virus, classified as B1.616. Consequently, the French public health agency (Sante publique France) and the WHO classified B.1.616 as variant under investigation (VUI). Added value of this studyOur observational study, conducted from January 1st to March 24th 2021 in the B.1.616 identified area, provides the first clinical and virological description of B.1.616-associated COVID-19. The 34 cases had clinical, biological and radiological findings in line with classical features of COVID-19, while RT-PCR tests on nasopharyngeal (NP) samples failed to detect SARS-CoV-2 in most patients. Indeed, this gold-standard test was positive in only 15% of the first tests in B.1.616-related COVID-19 patients. Of note, the diagnostic performance of RT-PCR tests was satisfactory on lower respiratory tract samples, suggesting that failure to detect B.1.616 on NP samples would be due to a viral load below the limit of detection in the upper respiratory tract, rather than to genomic mismatches between routine RT-PCR targets and this variant. In our cohort, B.1.616 was independently associated with worse clinical outcome, with high 28-day mortality (44%). Implications of all the available evidenceDiagnosis of B.1.616-related COVID-19 cases should not rely on RT-PCR tests on NP samples. In the epidemic area, strict infection control measures must be maintained as long as COVID-19 diagnosis is not ruled out, in order to limit nosocomial clusters and case fatality. Further studies are needed to confirm and investigate the association between genomic characteristics of B.1.616, and i) poor detection by RT-PCR tests on NP samples; ii) prognosis.