[Economist] 90 亿美元的云端服务（上）

Cloud $9bn

90 亿美元的云端服务

Another unicorn goes public
另一家独角兽公司上市

DREW HOUSTON and Arash Ferdowsi must have few regrets since they turned down an offer for their startup from Apple’s then boss, Steve Jobs, in 2011. Dropbox hasn’t done too badly in the interim. It rakes in over $1bn in revenue by allowing users—500m at the last count—to store and share data in the cloud. On March 23rd it is due to go public, making it the biggest firm to do so since Snap, a messaging app, floated in early 2017. Dropbox’s range for its share price values it at between $8bn and $9bn. That will comfort other “unicorns”, the tag given to startups valued at over $1bn, that are considering listing.

在 DREW HOUSTON 和 Arash Ferdowsi 的初创公司于 2011 年拒绝前苹果公司总裁史蒂夫乔布斯的收购之后，他们应该不怎么会感到后悔。在此期间 Dropbox 的表现还不错。它通过向用户提供至少 500m 的云端存储空间获取了超过十亿美元的收益。在三月二十三日，公司将上市，使得其成为自 2017 年名为 Snap 的通讯软件上市以来最大的准备上市公司。Dropbox 的估值预计将达到 80 亿美元到 90 亿美元之间。这将激励其他“独角兽”公司，也就是那些估值超过十亿美元的初创公司，考虑上市事宜。

True, the valuation is less than its early backers were hoping for when they valued the company at $10bn in 2014, when it last raised equity. But as Matthew Kennedy from Renaissance Capital, a research firm, points out, the previous valuation coincided with peak investor exuberance for tech firms. The adjustment may also reflect some doubts about the firm’s long-term prospects.

诚然，这个估值并不如公司的支持者在 2014 年增加股本时所预估的一百亿美元那样多。但正如来自研究机构 Renaissance Capital 的 Matthew Kennedy 所指出的，上次估值正好赶上高峰投资者对于科技公司充满热情。这种估值的变化或许也同样体现出了对于公司长期受益的顾虑。

Its challenge, common to many unicorns, is to convince users to part with cash. Dropbox gives away a basic level of storage for nothing but charges for premium services, including pricier business subscriptions. In order to increase revenues, it either needs to convert more users into paying ones, or encourage existing subscribers to upgrade. So far only 2% of users pay anything, and average revenue per paying user is flat. In 2017 it posted a loss of over $110m. The firm is counting on a shift away from individual users and towards firms to deliver profits.

正如其他独角兽公司一样，Dropbox 公司的挑战在于让用户付费。Dropbox 公司对于基础存储服务并不收费，而附加服务则需要收费，包括昂贵的商业订阅。为了增加受益，Dropbox 或者需要吸收更多的付费用户，或者需要鼓励既有的付费用户去升级套餐。目前只有 2% 的付费用户，每位付费用户的平均受益较低。在 2017 年公司表示亏损约为 11000万美元。公司寄希望于开发更多的公司客户而不是个人用户来增加利润。