福布斯对2011～2020政治、经济、科技等方面的一些预测
美国亿万富翁、拥有《福布斯》杂志的福布斯家族第二代掌门人马尔科姆·福布斯（Malcolm Forbes）曾经说过,“有一半时间是正确的,胜过一直是一半正确的。”在新一期杂志中,《福布斯》对未来十年的新闻做出了大胆预测,包括明年朝鲜领导 人金正日将逝世,以及第70亿个地球人口的诞生;2012年美国司法部对苹果垄断平板电脑市场展开调查,扎克伯格成为第一个身价超100亿美元的人,以及 2014年中美上演新版“导弹危机”等,暗示美国经济“四次探底”,并预计乔布斯将于2019年退休,更向老冤家比尔·盖茨豪捐500亿。以下为这场未来十年冒险预测的部分内容:
2011年
政治:金正日去世,享年70岁,时年29岁的三儿子金正云将继任朝鲜领导人,并寻求与美国进行贸易。
金融/经济:伯尼·麦道夫（Bernie Madoff）被发现吊死在牢房,狱方称不排除不正常死亡因素。
社会/环境:联合国秘书长潘基文到达开罗医院,欢迎第70亿个地球公民的诞生,并宣布进入性别平等年代。
科技:俄罗斯科学家发现美国/以色列间的巨大间谍网络。
2012年
政治:伊斯兰组织青年党在索马里夺权,接管亚丁湾海盗活动。
能源:以色列因伊朗核问题对伊发动袭击,导致石油价格飞涨。内贾德威胁关闭霍尔木兹海峡。
金融/经济:Facebook 完成400亿美元IPO,扎克伯格成为第一个20几岁就身价过百亿美金的人。
科技:美国司法部门对苹果公司展开调查,称其妨碍平板电脑市场的竞争。
健康:完全抗药性的传染性肺结核从墨西哥蔓延到德克萨斯、危地马拉和巴西。美墨边境关闭。
2013年
金融/经济:第三次重挫闪电袭击道指,致其再度在几分钟时间内跌破4000点。美国国会明令禁止高频率股市交易。
2014年
政治:中国在苏丹部署长程弹道导弹,导致“喀土穆导弹危机”。
金融/经济:印度商业大亨穆凯什·安巴尼凭借620亿美元的身价稳定福布斯富豪榜,现任首富斯利姆则在墨西哥政治和金融乱局中遭受重创。
健康:全球最大医药商辉瑞制药一分为五。
2015年
社会/环境:因不断上升的海平面污染淡水,孟加拉国向世界银行申请80亿美元贷款进行海水淡化。
体育:勒布朗·詹姆斯重返克里弗兰骑士。
2016年
政治:美国总统选举首次实现网络投票,结果造成大量舞弊指控;纽约选举切尔西·克林顿担任参议员,怀孕期间做完第一任期。
能源:格鲁吉亚出现新的美国核反应堆,工业欢呼“核复兴”。
社会/环境:实验室培育出“无杀戮肉类”,味道类似鸡肉。
2017年
金融/经济:哈佛大学接受捐赠金额达到500亿美元,为吸引中国精英学子,打出“免学费”王牌。
健康:两位澳大利亚女士通过使用一位母亲干细胞的合成精子,生下了第一个不需要“父亲”参与的孩子。
2018年
政治:最后一支作战部队离开阿富汗,史上最长的一次战争正式宣告结束,美国和塔利班宣布获胜。
金融/经济:美国失业率终于回落到7%以下,最糟糕的“四次探底”终于有结束迹象。
科技:世界最快高铁从北京抵达巴黎,时速打破300英里世界纪录。
2019年
社会/环境:中国由于女性过度缺乏,允许同性婚姻合法化。
科技:史蒂夫·乔布斯退休,承诺死后向盖茨基金会捐赠500亿美元个人财富。乔纳森·伊夫被任命为新一代苹果CEO。
2020年
金融/经济:沃尔玛销售额突破1万亿美元,将巴西和印度的市场扩展视作典范,在全球范围内共聘任员工500万人。
科技:第一架私人拥有的飞船搭载6男2女登陆月球。维珍银河将每张票定价为2亿美元。
以下为英文全版
Forbes: News from the future.
Forbes has listed a number of ‘noteworthy events’ that could happen over the next 10 years in the field of politics, energy, medicine, finance, society and technology.
“Futurism favors the bold: Look decades ahead…and critics will forgive your inaccuracies. We've attempted a thought experiment with tougher standards: predicting a future that's just around the corner. Our vision is sketched from real data, projections and facts, though we injected a dose of rigorous science fiction to fill in the gaps,” Forbes said.
2011
Politics: Kim Jong Il dies at age 70. Son Kim Jong Un, 29, succeeds him as North Korean leader. Seeks trade with U.S.
Finance/Economy: Bernie Madoff found hanged in cell. Prison officials will not rule out foul play.
Society/Environment: UN chief Ban Ki Moon arrives at Cairo hospital to welcome world's 7 billionth child, Malika Hussein. Declares start to Gender Justice Decade.
Technology: Russian scientists uncover giant U.S./Israeli cyberespionage network.
Technology: The Terrafugia Transition flying car goes on sale for $200,000.
2012
Politics: Islamist group Al Shabab seizes power in Somalia. Imposes Sharia law, takes over Gulf of Aden piracy operations.
Energy: Oil prices skyrocket following Israeli raid on Iranian nukes. President Ahmadinejad threatens to close Strait of Hormuz.
Finance/Economy: Facebook IPOs at $40 billion value. Founder Zuckerberg first twentysomething worth $10 billion-plus.
Society/Environment: First double amputee qualifies for 400-meter Olympic sprint in London. Places fourth.
Technology: Dept. of Justice probes Apple over monopoly of tablet computer market.
Health: Omni-drug-resistant, contagious tuberculosis infects children in Mexico City, spreads to Texas, Guatemala, Brazil. U.S.-Mexico border closed.
2013
Finance/Economy: Flash Crash 3 takes Dow down 4,000 points in minutes. Congress orders ban on high- frequency trading.
Health: Blue Cross/ Blue shield becomes first insurer to reimburse for DNA sequencing.
2014
Politics: Khartoum Missile Crisis: China deploys long-range ballistic missiles in Sudan, guarded by People's Liberation Army.
Finance/Economy: Indian commodity king Mukesh Ambani tops FORBES' rich list at $62 billion. Former No. 1 Carlos Slim hit hard by Mexican political, financial chaos.
Society/Environment: Bluefin tuna extinct. Mitsubishi conglomerate sells frozen stockpiles at tenfold previous prices.
Technology: Marines deploy tens of thousands of HULC3 exoskeletons to soldiers in Afghanistan. Lockheed Martin suit increases strength, endurance.
Health: Pfizer, world's largest drugmaker, breaks up into five smaller firms.
2015
Energy: German-Algerian consortium Desertec breaks ground on $500 billion concentrated solar power grid spanning North Africa.
Society/Environment: Bangladesh requests $8 billion World Bank loan for desalination plants as rising seas contaminate freshwater.
Society/Environment: Free agent Lebron James returns to Cleveland Cavaliers.
2016
Politics: First Internet balloting for U.S. President, with 7% of votes cast online. Widespread accusations of fraud.
Politics: New York elects Chelsea Clinton to Senate. First to hold office while pregnant.
Energy: New U.S. nuke reactor goes online in Georgia, first since Three Mile Island crisis. Industry hails "nuclear renaissance."
Society/Environment: Murderless Meat™, grown in labs, goes on sale at Whole Foods for $10 a pound. Tastes like chicken.
Technology: America's first virtual world employee farm opens in South Carolina. Minimum-wage workers serve as bodyguards, gold harvesters in online games.
2017
Energy: Price of switchgrass-based ethanol now cheaper than gasoline, even without government subsidies.
Finance/Economy: Harvard endowment doubles in seven years to $50 billion. Free tuition to lure top students from China.
Health: Two Australian women conceive first fatherless child using synthetic sperm derived from one mother's stem cell.
2018
Politics: Last combat troops leave Afghanistan. Longest-ever U.S. land war officially ends. Taliban and U.S. claim victory.
Finance/Economy: U.S. unemployment finally drops below 7%. Worst of quadruple-dip recession likely over.
Technology: World's fastest train arrives in Paris from Beijing, breaks 300mph record.
2019
Energy: First large-scale nuclear fusion experiments commence in France, prompting new promises of limitless clean power.
Society/Environment: China, facing dire lack of women, legalizes same-sex marriage. Creates pro-homosexual propaganda, financial incentives.
Technology: Steve Jobs retires. Pledges $50 billion upon his death to Gates Foundation. Jonathan Ive named Apple CEO.
Health: U.S. life expectancy declines for first time in a century. Doctors blame 55% obesity rate.
2020
Politics: Muslims flee shrinking Maldive Islands for Sri Lanka, sparking religious fighting. UN troops deployed. Greenpeace declares start of "climate wars."
Finance/Economy: Wal-mart sales pass $1 trillion. Cites successful India and Brazil expansions. Now employs 5 million worldwide.
Technology: First privately owned spacecraft lands six men and two women on moon. Virgin Galactic charges $200 million per ticket.
Health: FDA approves autonomous robot surgery to remove tumors. Cure rates boosted 20% in some cases.
2010-09-13, Forbes.