Fed's Test Will Be When To Turn Off The Money Pump
过去8个月里，美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)已向美国金融系统注入了超过8,000亿美元现金，如果是在正常时期，此举可能导致通货膨胀率大幅上升。但美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)相信，这次不会发生这样的情况。为平息猜疑让市场放心，他和他的副手过去几天来竭尽所能，向人们解释为什么不会发生通胀，并展示他们手中可以用来应对通胀的工具。并不只是美联储在关注通胀问题。在本月的一份报告中，高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家试图对他们从客户和债券市场交易员那里听到的他们所谓的“通胀狂燥症”予以批驳。对通胀问题的关注正值美联储下周即将召开的政策会议前夕。由于许多计划已经准备就绪，美联储在这次会上不大可能采取新的重要行动。会议的重要部分可能是对经济复苏的迹象应急计划长期退出策略考量进行评估。如今，通货膨胀似乎并不是眼下最让人担心的事。上周，美国劳工部公布，3月份的消费价格出现了54年来的首次下降。失业率上升工厂开工不足意味着企业没有积极性或能力来上调员工工资或提高产品售价。实际上，如果经济进一步走软，通货紧缩──而不是通胀──有可能成为严重威胁。有鉴于此，美联储目前的目标是让通胀水平再高点，而不是更低。在实施救助行动过程中，它实际一直在印制钞票。当它收购按揭支持证券或提供商业票据贷款（它一直在这么做）时，它通过电子系统向对方银行支付现金，从而向金融体系注入了新资金。当经济从衰退中复苏之后的某个时点，美联储将不得不抽回这些资金，并提高利率。因为美联储仍在推进它的许多计划，它今后不得不抽回的资金规模肯定比今天的天文数字还要高。如果美联储迟迟不吸纳这部分资金，从理论上讲，经济可能会过热，并导致通货膨胀回潮。如果投资者不相信美联储能胜任这项工作，那么，在出现这种情况之前，长期利率可能会上升，从而在复苏开始前就将其扼杀了。贝南克上周在亚特兰大发表演讲时说，我们正在仔细思考这个问题。实际上，它们是近期（联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议）的一个主要话题。令人担心的一个问题是，美联储已向经济注入了太多资金，而且是以很多非常规的方式进行的，因此，从操作上讲，到时候要逆转回来将是件吃力的事情。美联储副主席科恩(Donald Kohn)在周末的一个讲话中说，时机到来时，我们有很多工具，可以用来吸收（金融体系中现金）和上调利率。美联储的策略之一是，随着它的许多计划所要帮助的市场出现改善，根据设计，这些计划将自然终结。比如，随着私人市场逐渐复苏，美联储所持有的短期商业票据已从1月份时的3,500亿美元减少到2,500亿美元。从设计上看，类似美联储商业票据借贷计划中的条款在市场恢复后就没什么吸引力了，这使投资者有一种脱离对美联储依赖的动机。美联储有朝一日也可能会卖掉其长期投资，如美国国债或按揭支持证券。这样将从金融系统抽回资金，并推高这些市场上的利率水平，从而在经济开始出现过热的时候有助于美联储遏制增长。它还可以将其持有的长期证券出借给私人投资者，并相应取得现金（即所谓逆回购），从而从金融系统抽回资金。必要时，美联储还有其它从金融体系抽回资金和推高利率的办法。它对各家银行留在央行的准备金支付利息。它可以在适当的时候提高给银行的利率（目前的利率接近于零），从而使银行降低以其他方式出借资金的积极性。疏通好管道是挑战的一部分。更大的挑战是决定何时打开水阀。眼下看来还远不是时候。尽管消费开支住房和股票市场显示出改善的迹象，但经济仍呈疲软状态。4月份的失业率达到了8.5%，较20年平均水平高出3个百分点。在经济经历数月乃至数年超过趋势水平的增长后，失业率可能才会回到中长期趋势水平。高盛说，这使美联储有许多时间来清理其资产负债状况。不过，芝加哥Northern Trust首席经济学家凯斯瑞尔(Paul Kasriel)对美联储能否做好这件事的信心不是很足。他对美联储迄今的行动并不担心，他担心的是，美联储可能要花上很长时间才能作出清理这些资金的决定。凯斯瑞尔说，美联储希望确保经济开始走上持续增长之路，而在这个问题上当然会有很多不确定性。他说，真正的风险在于美联储因为“担心抑制经济复苏”而长期实行宽松政策。凯斯瑞尔预计，到2011年，通货膨胀将呈上升势头，尽管美联储采取了各种措施防范这种局面。Jon Hilsenrath相关阅读美联储资产规模扩大至2.19万亿美元 2009-04-17美联储饮鸩斗通缩 2009-04-16贝南克领衔出演美联储公关大戏 2009-04-15经济前景恶化促使美联储回购1万亿美元资产 2009-04-09美联储扩大外币贷款额度 2009-04-07
During the past eight months, the Federal Reserve has pumped more than $800 billion of cash into the nation's financial system, an action that in normal times could lead to an ugly inflation surge.Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is confident that isn't going to happen this time around. To quiet skeptics and reassure markets, he and his lieutenants have been going out of their way the past few days to explain why inflation isn't in the outlook and to lay out the tools they have in hand to fight it.The focus on inflation isn't just coming from the Fed. In a report this month, Goldman Sachs economists sought to knock down what they described as a wave of 'inflation hype' they had been hearing from clients and bond-market traders.The focus on the issue comes with the Fed's next policy meeting, set for next week. With so many programs already in train, the central bank looks unlikely to take dramatic new actions at the meeting. Assessing signs of improvement in the economy, contingency planning and deliberations on long-term exit strategies are likely to be important parts of the discussions.Inflation might seem like a distant worry today. Last week, the Labor Department reported that consumer prices in March fell year over year for the first time in 54 years. Rising unemployment and idle factory floors mean businesses have little incentive or capacity to raise wages or the prices they charge customers. There's a risk, in fact, that if the economy weakens much more, the opposite of inflation -- deflation -- could become a serious threat.That's why the Fed's goal for now is to get inflation higher, not lower. It has effectively been printing money as part of its rescue efforts. When it buys mortgage-backed securities or makes commercial-paper loans, as it has been doing, it electronically credits its counterparty banks with cash in return, which pumps new cash into the financial system.At some point when the economy recovers from recession, the Fed is going to have to withdraw this money and raise interest rates. Because the Fed is still ramping up many of its programs, the amount of money it will have to withdraw some day is sure to be even higher than today's astronomic levels.If the Fed is too slow to mop up, the economy could theoretically overheat and lead to an inflation comeback. If investors don't believe the Fed is up to the task, long-term interest rates could rise in advance of such an event, undermining a recovery before it even happens.'We are thinking carefully about these issues,' Mr. Bernanke said in a speech in Atlanta last week. 'Indeed, they have occupied a significant portion of recent [Federal Open Market Committee] meetings.'One worry is that the Fed has pumped so much money into the economy, and done it in so many unconventional ways, that it is going to be operationally hard to reverse course when the time comes.'We have a number of tools we can use to absorb [cash in the financial system] and raise interest rates when the time comes,' Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said in a speech over the weekend.One part of the Fed's strategy is that many of its programs were designed to run off naturally as the markets they are meant to assist improve. For example, its holdings of short-term commercial paper have declined to $250 billion from $350 billion in January as the private market has come back to life.Programs like the Fed's commercial-paper-lending effort were designed to have unattractive terms as markets heal, giving investors an incentive to wean themselves off the central bank.The central bank also could someday sell some of its longer-term holdings, such as Treasury bonds or mortgage-backed securities. The act would pull cash out of the financial system and push up interest rates in those markets, which could help the Fed temper growth if the economy begins to overheat. It also could lend its holdings of long-term securities to private investors and take cash in return -- something known as a 'reverse repo' -- which would pull cash out of the financial system.It has other approaches for both draining cash from the financial system and pushing up interest rates as needed. It pays banks interest on the cash they keep on reserve at the central bank. The Fed could push up those rates -- now near zero -- when the time is right. That would give banks a disincentive to lend the money in other ways.Getting the plumbing right is part of the challenge. A bigger challenge is deciding when to turn the water off.Right now the moment looks far off. Despite recent signs of improvement in consumer spending, housing and stock markets, the economy is still burdened by slack. The unemployment rate, at 8.5% in April, was three percentage points above its 20-year average. It could take months or even years of above-trend economic growth to get the jobless rate back to its longer-run trend. That gives the Fed 'oodles of time to unwind its balance sheet,' says Goldman Sachs.But Paul Kasriel, chief economist of Northern Trust of Chicago, isn't so sure the central bank will get it right. He's not worried about what the Fed has done to date. He's worried the Fed will take too long to make the decision to unwind it.'The Fed is going to want to make sure that the economy has started on a sustained growth path, and of course there will be a lot of uncertainty about that,' Mr. Kasriel says. The real risk, he says, is that the Fed overstays its accommodative policies, 'for fear of choking off a recovery.' By 2011, despite all the Fed's efforts to prepare itself, Mr. Kasriel sees inflation on the rise.Jon Hilsenrath
During the past eight months, the Federal Reserve has pumped more than $800 billion of cash into the nation's financial system, an action that in normal times could lead to an ugly inflation surge.Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is confident that isn't going to happen this time around. To quiet skeptics and reassure markets, he and his lieutenants have been going out of their way the past few days to explain why inflation isn't in the outlook and to lay out the tools they have in hand to fight it.The focus on inflation isn't just coming from the Fed. In a report this month, Goldman Sachs economists sought to knock down what they described as a wave of 'inflation hype' they had been hearing from clients and bond-market traders.The focus on the issue comes with the Fed's next policy meeting, set for next week. With so many programs already in train, the central bank looks unlikely to take dramatic new actions at the meeting. Assessing signs of improvement in the economy, contingency planning and deliberations on long-term exit strategies are likely to be important parts of the discussions.Inflation might seem like a distant worry today. Last week, the Labor Department reported that consumer prices in March fell year over year for the first time in 54 years. Rising unemployment and idle factory floors mean businesses have little incentive or capacity to raise wages or the prices they charge customers. There's a risk, in fact, that if the economy weakens much more, the opposite of inflation -- deflation -- could become a serious threat.That's why the Fed's goal for now is to get inflation higher, not lower. It has effectively been printing money as part of its rescue efforts. When it buys mortgage-backed securities or makes commercial-paper loans, as it has been doing, it electronically credits its counterparty banks with cash in return, which pumps new cash into the financial system.At some point when the economy recovers from recession, the Fed is going to have to withdraw this money and raise interest rates. Because the Fed is still ramping up many of its programs, the amount of money it will have to withdraw some day is sure to be even higher than today's astronomic levels.If the Fed is too slow to mop up, the economy could theoretically overheat and lead to an inflation comeback. If investors don't believe the Fed is up to the task, long-term interest rates could rise in advance of such an event, undermining a recovery before it even happens.'We are thinking carefully about these issues,' Mr. Bernanke said in a speech in Atlanta last week. 'Indeed, they have occupied a significant portion of recent [Federal Open Market Committee] meetings.'One worry is that the Fed has pumped so much money into the economy, and done it in so many unconventional ways, that it is going to be operationally hard to reverse course when the time comes.'We have a number of tools we can use to absorb [cash in the financial system] and raise interest rates when the time comes,' Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said in a speech over the weekend.One part of the Fed's strategy is that many of its programs were designed to run off naturally as the markets they are meant to assist improve. For example, its holdings of short-term commercial paper have declined to $250 billion from $350 billion in January as the private market has come back to life.Programs like the Fed's commercial-paper-lending effort were designed to have unattractive terms as markets heal, giving investors an incentive to wean themselves off the central bank.The central bank also could someday sell some of its longer-term holdings, such as Treasury bonds or mortgage-backed securities. The act would pull cash out of the financial system and push up interest rates in those markets, which could help the Fed temper growth if the economy begins to overheat. It also could lend its holdings of long-term securities to private investors and take cash in return -- something known as a 'reverse repo' -- which would pull cash out of the financial system.It has other approaches for both draining cash from the financial system and pushing up interest rates as needed. It pays banks interest on the cash they keep on reserve at the central bank. The Fed could push up those rates -- now near zero -- when the time is right. That would give banks a disincentive to lend the money in other ways.Getting the plumbing right is part of the challenge. A bigger challenge is deciding when to turn the water off.Right now the moment looks far off. Despite recent signs of improvement in consumer spending, housing and stock markets, the economy is still burdened by slack. The unemployment rate, at 8.5% in April, was three percentage points above its 20-year average. It could take months or even years of above-trend economic growth to get the jobless rate back to its longer-run trend. That gives the Fed 'oodles of time to unwind its balance sheet,' says Goldman Sachs.But Paul Kasriel, chief economist of Northern Trust of Chicago, isn't so sure the central bank will get it right. He's not worried about what the Fed has done to date. He's worried the Fed will take too long to make the decision to unwind it.'The Fed is going to want to make sure that the economy has started on a sustained growth path, and of course there will be a lot of uncertainty about that,' Mr. Kasriel says. The real risk, he says, is that the Fed overstays its accommodative policies, 'for fear of choking off a recovery.' By 2011, despite all the Fed's efforts to prepare itself, Mr. Kasriel sees inflation on the rise.Jon Hilsenrath