Early Rebound In China Is Unlikely
中国经济迅速复苏的希望正开始破灭，打击了推动中国股市成为今年来全球表现最佳市场的乐观情绪。最近几周，一些企业和投资者看到银行放贷飙升和钢铁价格回升，将其视为中国政府大规模经济刺激计划已经发挥效应的迹象。对于倚重工业的中国经济来说，钢铁价格是一个重要指标。Getty Images中国工人扛着一坛液化气经过一艘船但如今钢铁价格又开始下跌，而进一步审视近期银行数据就可以发现，很多贷款不会对推动经济增长起到立竿见影效果。与此同时，随着欧美对中国出口的需求萎缩，中国企业和消费者减少了购买的进口产品，中国进出口贸易继续下滑。由此可见，中国经济要真正恢复快速增长可能还需要数月甚至更长的时间。鉴于中国是全球唯一保持增长的主要经济体，这对全球经济来说不是好事。摩根大通(JP Morgan)首席经济学家卡斯曼(Bruce Kasman)说，认为中国经济会脱离全球其他地区，或者指望中国经济带动全球增长，这样的观点是不正确的。中国经济的持续复苏取决于全球环境能否好转。中国政府目前为止已经投入了大约2,300亿元（340亿美元）用于经济刺激项目，并且还会继续投入。不过大多数经济学家认为，刺激计划要发挥效应还需要一定时间，今年下半年之前很难见到明显成效。地方公司对刺激计划抱着更乐观的态度，去年12月开始推高钢铁价格和货运价格。投资者也开始推动中国股市回升：上证综合指数本月一度较年初增长了30%，但随后又有所回落。到2月初，钢铁价格已经较去年11月低点回升了大约15%。中国是全球最大的钢铁消耗国，钢铁价格的上涨也吸引了诸多关注。但大量钢铁都是用于库存，而不是立即投入工厂或是建筑工地使用。中国钢铁工业协会上周公布的一项报告显示，今年1月份一些钢铁产品的库存量较去年12月猛增了30%以上。报告称，近期经销商和消费者补充库存推动了钢铁市场价格回升，但库存持续增长随后将影响到钢铁市场的稳定运转。预期的需求并没有成为现实，上述库存正在施压市场。根据上海研究机构我的钢铁(Mysteel.com)提供的数据，上周钢铁平均价格回落了6.3%，此前一周下跌了3.2%。Associated Press大学生们今年2月聚集在湖北武汉的一场招聘会门前等待入场由于今年的农历春节假期比2007年来得较早，干扰了1月份重要指标的年度对比，最近几周要准确分析中国经济数据变得尤为困难。其他数据也支持了经济活动尚未复苏的观点。即便经过春节假期因素调整，今年1月份上海工业产值仍较上年同期下滑了12.7%。（1月份全国工业产值数据尚未公布。）此外，今年1月中国进口较上年同期下滑了43.1%，考虑到春节假期因素，这一显著降幅显示了中国需求正在不断放缓。瑞银(UBS)经济学家王涛表示，中国国内需求仍然非常疲软，因为住房建筑业持续下滑，而财政刺激计划带来的投资需求还尚未到位。今年1月份中国各银行发放的新增贷款1.62万亿元，较上年猛增了一倍；放贷显著增加被普遍看作是一个积极迹象。但其他存款数据显示，各家公司都在囤积现金而不是使用资金，因此上述贷款或许不能立即推动经济增长。近期贷款不同于以往的性质也引发了进一步质疑。在1月份的新增企业贷款中，短期票据占据了42%，规模总计6,239亿元，是去年11月和12月已经上升数据的三倍，更是去年10月数据的十倍。由于企业借入的这些票据利息低于存款利息；一些经济学家认为近期这一贷款飙升更多的是出于财务目的，而不是实际需求。中国国际金融有限公司首席经济学家哈继铭说，近期货币和信贷数据并没有反映实际的经济需求。与此同时，花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师Ally Ma和Brian Lam本周发布报告称，中国主要码头运营商公布的数据显示，2月份集装箱运载量甚至比1月份还低。根据上述数据以及其他指标，两位分析师预计未来数月中国出口似乎不可避免地会较上年下滑20%甚至更多。Andrew Batson相关阅读中国央行对通货紧缩发出警告 2009-02-24温家宝：刺激性举措将改善中国经济形势 2009-02-16北京招聘会人满为患 大学生一职难求 2009-02-10企业盈利警报频传 中国经济阵痛将至 2009-02-04
Hopes for an early recovery in China's economy are starting to unravel, undercutting the optimism that has helped make the country's stock market the world's best performer this year.In recent weeks, some companies and investors had seized on a surge in bank lending and an upturn in steel prices -- a key indicator in China's industry-heavy economy -- as signs that a massive government stimulus program was already taking hold.But now steel prices are falling again, and closer examination of the recent bank data suggests that many of the loans won't immediately fuel economic growth. Meanwhile, trade has continued to contract, as demand for Chinese exports from the U.S. and Europe wanes, and Chinese companies and consumers, in turn, buy fewer foreign goods.The upshot is that a real pickup in China's economy could still be several months away, or longer. That's bad news for a global economy in which China is the only major power still growing.'It would be a mistake to think that China could decouple from the rest of the world, or carry the rest of the world on its shoulders,' said Bruce Kasman, chief economist for JP Morgan. 'A sustained recovery in China is dependent on better news globally.'China's government has put about 230 billion yuan ($34 billion) into stimulus projects so far, with more to come. Most economists think it will take time for that jolt to work its way through the economy, and don't expect major effects to show up until around the second half of this year.Local companies, more optimistic about the stimulus package, began bidding up steel prices and freight rates in December. Investors did the same with Chinese stocks: The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index at one point this month was up 30% for the year, though it has come down a bit since. By the beginning of February, steel prices had gained about 15% from November lows. China is the world's largest consumer of the metal, and the run-up in prices got a lot of attention.But much of that steel was stockpiled, rather than immediately used in factories or construction sites. Inventories of some steel products rose more than 30% in January from December, the China Iron & Steel Association said in a report last week.'Recent additions to inventories by dealers and users have led to a rebound in steel market prices . . . [but] the steady increase in inventories will affect the stable operation of the steel market later on,' it said.The anticipated demand hasn't yet materialized, and those inventories are weighing on the market. Average steel prices dropped 6.3% last week, after falling 3.2% the week before, according to Mysteel, a Shanghai-based research firm.Getting a solid read on the Chinese economy has been particularly difficult in recent weeks because the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday fell earlier this year than in 2007, distorting annual comparisons of key indicators in January.Other data reinforce the sense that economic activity has yet to revive. Industrial output in the business hub of Shanghai fell 12.7% from a year earlier in January -- even after adjusting for the holiday. (Nationwide, industrial statistics haven't yet been published for January). Also, imports nationwide fell 43.1% in January from a year earlier -- a drop that, allowing for the holiday impact, suggests slowing demand in China.'Domestic demand for imports is still very weak, as the housing-construction slump continues, and the fiscal stimulus-induced investment demand has yet to come through,' said UBS economist Wang Tao.The huge expansion in lending in January -- banks made 1.62 trillion yuan in new loans, twice as much as last year -- was widely seen as a positive sign. But other data on deposits suggest companies are hoarding their cash rather than spending it, so those loans may not be immediately fueling economic growth.Further doubts have been raised by the unusual nature of recent loans. Short-term bills accounted for 42% of new corporate lending in January, or 623.9 billion yuan, three times the already elevated level of November and December, and ten times October's figure.Because companies can borrow those bills for a lower interest rate than they earn on deposits, some economists think the surge comes more from financial engineering than actual borrowing. 'Recent monetary and credit data do not reflect real economic demand,' said Ha Jiming, chief economist of China International Capital Corp.Meanwhile, major Chinese port operators are reporting even lower volumes of containers coming through in February than in January, Citigroup analysts Ally Ma and Brian Lam wrote in a report this week. Based on those data and other indicators, an annual decline of 20% or more in Chinese exports in coming months 'seems inevitable,' the analysts wrote.Andrew Batson
Hopes for an early recovery in China's economy are starting to unravel, undercutting the optimism that has helped make the country's stock market the world's best performer this year.In recent weeks, some companies and investors had seized on a surge in bank lending and an upturn in steel prices -- a key indicator in China's industry-heavy economy -- as signs that a massive government stimulus program was already taking hold.But now steel prices are falling again, and closer examination of the recent bank data suggests that many of the loans won't immediately fuel economic growth. Meanwhile, trade has continued to contract, as demand for Chinese exports from the U.S. and Europe wanes, and Chinese companies and consumers, in turn, buy fewer foreign goods.The upshot is that a real pickup in China's economy could still be several months away, or longer. That's bad news for a global economy in which China is the only major power still growing.'It would be a mistake to think that China could decouple from the rest of the world, or carry the rest of the world on its shoulders,' said Bruce Kasman, chief economist for JP Morgan. 'A sustained recovery in China is dependent on better news globally.'China's government has put about 230 billion yuan ($34 billion) into stimulus projects so far, with more to come. Most economists think it will take time for that jolt to work its way through the economy, and don't expect major effects to show up until around the second half of this year.Local companies, more optimistic about the stimulus package, began bidding up steel prices and freight rates in December. Investors did the same with Chinese stocks: The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index at one point this month was up 30% for the year, though it has come down a bit since. By the beginning of February, steel prices had gained about 15% from November lows. China is the world's largest consumer of the metal, and the run-up in prices got a lot of attention.But much of that steel was stockpiled, rather than immediately used in factories or construction sites. Inventories of some steel products rose more than 30% in January from December, the China Iron & Steel Association said in a report last week.'Recent additions to inventories by dealers and users have led to a rebound in steel market prices . . . [but] the steady increase in inventories will affect the stable operation of the steel market later on,' it said.The anticipated demand hasn't yet materialized, and those inventories are weighing on the market. Average steel prices dropped 6.3% last week, after falling 3.2% the week before, according to Mysteel, a Shanghai-based research firm.Getting a solid read on the Chinese economy has been particularly difficult in recent weeks because the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday fell earlier this year than in 2007, distorting annual comparisons of key indicators in January.Other data reinforce the sense that economic activity has yet to revive. Industrial output in the business hub of Shanghai fell 12.7% from a year earlier in January -- even after adjusting for the holiday. (Nationwide, industrial statistics haven't yet been published for January). Also, imports nationwide fell 43.1% in January from a year earlier -- a drop that, allowing for the holiday impact, suggests slowing demand in China.'Domestic demand for imports is still very weak, as the housing-construction slump continues, and the fiscal stimulus-induced investment demand has yet to come through,' said UBS economist Wang Tao.The huge expansion in lending in January -- banks made 1.62 trillion yuan in new loans, twice as much as last year -- was widely seen as a positive sign. But other data on deposits suggest companies are hoarding their cash rather than spending it, so those loans may not be immediately fueling economic growth.Further doubts have been raised by the unusual nature of recent loans. Short-term bills accounted for 42% of new corporate lending in January, or 623.9 billion yuan, three times the already elevated level of November and December, and ten times October's figure.Because companies can borrow those bills for a lower interest rate than they earn on deposits, some economists think the surge comes more from financial engineering than actual borrowing. 'Recent monetary and credit data do not reflect real economic demand,' said Ha Jiming, chief economist of China International Capital Corp.Meanwhile, major Chinese port operators are reporting even lower volumes of containers coming through in February than in January, Citigroup analysts Ally Ma and Brian Lam wrote in a report this week. Based on those data and other indicators, an annual decline of 20% or more in Chinese exports in coming months 'seems inevitable,' the analysts wrote.Andrew Batson