Developing Nations Need Stimulus Too

世界银行(World Bank)首席经济学家周一说，如果发达国家能够协调一致刺激经济，并捐资成立一个2万亿美元的基金以帮助低收入国家，那么世界经济能够在2010年实现复苏。林毅夫(Justin Lin)进一步谈到了世界银行呼吁通过“马歇尔计划”帮助发展中国家应对全球经济减速的要求，他说可能需要全球GDP的1%。上个月，世界银行行长佐立克(Robert Zoellick)提出建立一只这样的基金，由发达国家将刺激方案援助总额的0.7%拨到该基金中。林毅夫说，除了高收入国家之外，中国和产油国等外汇储备雄厚的国家也应该出资。他在彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的一次演讲中说，这样一只基金将把刺激方案的部分资金配置到世界经济中最为棘手的瓶颈上。高收入国家的财政空间往往较大，而结构性问题更少，但低收入国家面临的形势通常恰恰相反。他说，高收入国家应向低收入国家转移部分资金，以帮助它们开展能够缓解瓶颈效应的项目。除了这方面的贡献外，我们还可以解决低收入国家的财政空间，同时我们设定了这些项目未来能够自行偿还资金的条件。同佐立克一样，他也敦促美国在该基金中发挥领导作用。林毅夫说，全球经济放缓今年可能会触底，但金融风暴还可能会延续很长一段时间。他说，存在着许多许多的不确定因素。他说，各国除了在全球刺激措施和解决信贷危机方面进行协调之外，它们也必须小心翼翼地避免贸易保护主义。Tom Barkley


The world economy can recover in 2010 if developed countries can coordinate on stimulating their economies and contribute to a $2 trillion fund to help low-income countries, the World Bank's chief economist said Monday.Justin Lin ratcheted up the bank's call for a 'Marshall Plan' to help developing countries cope with the global slowdown, saying that 1% of world gross domestic product will probably be needed.Last month, World Bank President Robert Zoellick proposed creating such a fund by diverting 0.7% of the stimulus packages of developed countries.Lin said that in addition to high-income countries, reserve-rich nations like China and oil producers should also contribute.Such a fund will help spur global growth by allocating stimulus to the most troublesome bottlenecks of the world economy, he said in a speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. High-income countries tend to have more fiscal space and fewer structural problems, while low-income countries are usually facing the opposite situation.'The high-income countries should reallocate a part of their funds to the low-income countries to help them carry out the bottleneck-releasing type of project,' he said. 'And out of this contribution, we can solve the low-income countries' fiscal space and at the same time we have conditions where the project will pay for itself in the future.'Like Zoellick, he urged the U.S. to take the lead on the fund.Lin said the global slowdown will likely hit bottom this year, but that there is a risk of a protracted period of financial turmoil.'There are many, many uncertainties,' he said.In addition to coordinating on global stimulus and addressing the credit crisis, countries also must be careful to avoid protectionism, he said.Tom Barkley