One Word For Playing This Market 'Defense!'
尽管美国出台了一系列旨在提振经济和拯救银行体系的重大举措，但股市在2009年大部分时间仍可能会遇到强大的压力。这意味着，你在投资方面要在许多个月内保持谨慎，直到这些措施生效与否更加明朗化。从美国房地产泡沫破裂开始，至今已有将近两年了。但直到去年下半年的后半段，消费者才开始感受到房地产市场的冲击。在过去的经济萧条中，消费者能维持大部分开支，这很大程度上得益于可以很容易地从银行和信用卡公司取得信贷。Wesley Bedrosian要等消费者度过难关此外，本已在美国经济中扮演主导角色的消费者在近几十年来进一步巩固了地位。截至去年底，消费支出在美国国内生产总值(GDP)中所占比重达到70.4%，相比之下上世纪70年代晚期约为63%。近年来，美国的储蓄率变成了负水平，这意味着消费者已经入不敷出。但如今，举债度日的道路已经被堵死，工作机会又在日益减少，失业率飙升至16年高点。消费者只好勒紧裤腰带过日子。美国政府正在采取史无前例的行动来理顺经济。国会拿出将近8,000亿美元来作为经济的启动资金，估计接下来要做的就是稳定住房市场。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)已经将短期基准利率下调至零水平，并且正在与财政部合作酝酿大规模的行动以推动信贷市场──然后就轮到企业和消费信贷──重回正轨。但这种大干快上式的刺激计划和银行救助措施并未在上周唤起乐观情绪。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数下跌了5.2%，周二更是出现了400点的暴跌。此外，在《华尔街日报》进行的一次调查中，受访经济学家都认为，目前看来在下半年实现经济复苏的可能性要比几个月前更小了。Wasatch-1st Source Income Equity Fund的经理拉尔夫•夏艾弗(Ralph Shive)说，这就好比要让一艘巨大的战舰转向一样，不可能一蹴而就。一些投资策略师城，美国可能要经历一段更长时间的消费冬眠期，其结果是更低迷的经济，企业利润也达不到平均水平。Strategas Research Partners的首席投资策略师杰森•崔内特(Jason Trennert)称，在个人财务安全顾虑重重的情况下，一般消费者都有了一种濒死经验。这种情况下，很难不产生成长期的影响。眼下股票是便宜，但是......崔内特称，最关键的问题在于政府的措施能否阻止席卷整个经济的失业大潮。就业状况是决定经济能否恢复某种稳定的关键因素。让投资者左右为难的是股价，特别是那些与百姓消费联系紧密的股票，其价格已经大幅下跌。有人认为，市场已经消化了今年消费市场的低迷前景。而且，即使今年股价不会出现大的反弹，但许多股票可能已经跌到了谷底。于是，会有人认为应该开始朝着迎接经济最终反弹的方向来逐渐调整仓位了，例如增持能源和原材料这些近几个月来股价大幅下跌的周期类股票。但也有人不这么看。例如夏艾弗就坚定地采取着守势。他手头资金有将近20%是现金。这位基金经理表示，在金融体系稳定下来前，韬光养晦方为上策。夏艾弗在回避那些与非必须类开支有关的股票，如饭店和大部分零售类股。他表示，我们持有相当多生活必需品公司的股票。其中包括金佰利(Kimberly-Clark Corp.)和百事公司(PepsiCo)。此外，他还持有大量医药类股，如雅培制药(Abbott Laboratories)。在投资策略上，崔内特认为未来的市场环境将有利于那些能够派发高额股息的公司。他表示，想要通过股价上涨获得超额回报将变得困难，很大一部分投资回报将来自于股票分红。崔内特和其他人都认为，那些将关注点放在绩差股业绩好转题材上的投资策略形势严峻。在信贷受限的环境下，诸如“深度价值投资”之类的策略可能将遇到挑战。MFS Investments的首席投资策略师詹姆斯•斯沃森(James Swanson)也认为该将焦点放在公司质量上，可以用来判断的依据包括公司的技术创新和低的债务负担。熬过今年但鉴于经济和股市的低迷可能会再持续好几个月，斯沃森认为优质公司债券具有吸引力。只要经济稳定和企业盈利好转，这类债券就会反弹。此外，这些债券的收益率与美国国债相比格外的高，这意味着投资者基本上可以一边收钱一边坐等形势好转。然而，斯沃森对长期前景并不是非常悲观。他认为，政府的经济刺激措施会在年内生效。虽然消费者将被信用包袱束缚住手脚，并导致经济的总体形势不如以往经济复苏时活跃。但他预料，一但美国消费者恢复了元气，便会恢复过去的消费模式。他说：“这便叫做好了伤疤忘了疼。”Tom Lauricella相关阅读避险功能令黄金脱颍而出 2009-02-24萧条时期哪类股票仍可能盈利 2009-02-23
Even with massive efforts to prop up the economy and banking system, the stock market is facing significant head winds that may persist through much of 2009. That means remaining cautious with your investments for many months to come until it becomes clearer whether these steps will bear fruit.It's now been nearly two years since the collapse of the real-estate bubble began. But it was only late last year that the real impact began to be felt by consumers.In previous downturns, consumers mostly kept spending, thanks in large part to easily available credit from banks and credit-card companies.Consumers Carry the DayMeanwhile, in recent decades the already dominant role of the consumer in the U.S. economy became even larger. By the end of last year, consumer spending accounted for 70.4% of U.S. gross domestic product, up from around 63% in the late 1970s. In recent years, the savings rate in the U.S. turned negative, meaning consumers were spending more than they made.But that lending has been choked off, and jobs have vaporized, sending the unemployment rate to its highest in 16 years. Consumers have responded by pulling back on their spending.The government is making unprecedented efforts to stanch the bleeding. Congress has pulled together a roughly $800 billion package to jump-start the economy, and efforts to stabilize the housing market are expected to follow. The Federal Reserve has slashed short-term interest rates to zero and is working with the Treasury Department on massive programs to get the credit markets -- and therefore corporate and consumer lending -- back on track.But the one-two punch of stimulus package and bank bailout did little to buoy optimism last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.2% -- including a big 400-point selloff on Tuesday. Meanwhile, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal agreed that a recovery in the second half of the year is now less likely than it appeared just a few months ago.'This is like turning a battleship around,' says Ralph Shive, manager of the Wasatch-1st Source Income Equity Fund. 'It's not going to be fixed overnight.'Some investment strategists say we could be in for an extended period of hibernation for consumers and, as a result, a lower economy and subpar corporate profits. 'The average consumer has had a near-death experience as far their economic security is concerned,' says Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners. 'It's hard to see something like that not having a long-term impact.'Stocks Are Cheap, But ...Mr. Trennert says the most important question will be whether the government's efforts can halt waves of layoffs sweeping through the economy. 'The employment situation is the critical element in restoring some sort of stabilization in the economy.'For investors, the dilemma is that stock prices, especially those closely linked to the consumer, have already fallen sharply. Some argue that the market has already factored in a bleak outlook for the consumer this year, and that while there may not be a sharp rebound in stock prices, the lowest levels on many shares may have already been reached.That would argue for beginning a gradual shift toward positioning for an eventual economic rebound by adding to positions in so-called cyclical stocks, such as energy and materials companies, whose shares have fallen significantly in recent months.Others disagree. Mr. Shive at Wasatch, for example, is staying solidly on the defense. He has nearly 20% of the fund sitting in cash. 'Keeping the powder dry makes sense until we get the financial system stabilized,' says the fund manager, based in South Bend, Ind.He's avoiding so-called discretionary-spending stocks, such as restaurants and most retailers. 'We do have a pretty good weighting toward companies which offer products that people need to have and buy,' he says. Among the so-called consumer-staples names Mr. Shive owns are Kimberly-Clark and PepsiCo. In addition, he has a hefty slug of health-care stocks such as Abbott Laboratories.At Strategas, Mr. Trennert says the coming market environment will favor strong dividend payers. 'It's going to be difficult to get returns through an excess of profit growth,' he says. Instead, 'a big part of the return you are going to get is going to be from dividends.'Mr. Trennert and others also think it could be a tough environment for investment strategies that focus on turnarounds of out-of-favor companies. Such 'deep value' strategies may be challenged in an environment where credit is limited.James Swanson, chief investment strategist at MFS Investments, also says the focus should be on quality. Among the traits to look for, he says, are technological innovations and low debt burdens.Waiting Out the YearBut with the economy and stocks potentially struggling for months to come, Mr. Swanson thinks high-quality corporate bonds are attractive. Whenever the economy stabilizes and corporate profits recover, those bonds should rally. In the meantime, yields on those securities are exceptionally high compared with U.S. Treasurys, which means investors are essentially paid to wait it out.Mr. Swanson isn't extremely pessimistic about the long-term outlook, however. He thinks that by year end, the government's moves to help the economy will kick in. While consumers will be hobbled by their debt burden and, as a result, overall economic activity will be more moderate than in past recoveries, he expects U.S. consumers to get back to their spending ways as soon as they are able. 'Memories are short,' he says.Tom Lauricella
Even with massive efforts to prop up the economy and banking system, the stock market is facing significant head winds that may persist through much of 2009. That means remaining cautious with your investments for many months to come until it becomes clearer whether these steps will bear fruit.It's now been nearly two years since the collapse of the real-estate bubble began. But it was only late last year that the real impact began to be felt by consumers.In previous downturns, consumers mostly kept spending, thanks in large part to easily available credit from banks and credit-card companies.Consumers Carry the DayMeanwhile, in recent decades the already dominant role of the consumer in the U.S. economy became even larger. By the end of last year, consumer spending accounted for 70.4% of U.S. gross domestic product, up from around 63% in the late 1970s. In recent years, the savings rate in the U.S. turned negative, meaning consumers were spending more than they made.But that lending has been choked off, and jobs have vaporized, sending the unemployment rate to its highest in 16 years. Consumers have responded by pulling back on their spending.The government is making unprecedented efforts to stanch the bleeding. Congress has pulled together a roughly $800 billion package to jump-start the economy, and efforts to stabilize the housing market are expected to follow. The Federal Reserve has slashed short-term interest rates to zero and is working with the Treasury Department on massive programs to get the credit markets -- and therefore corporate and consumer lending -- back on track.But the one-two punch of stimulus package and bank bailout did little to buoy optimism last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.2% -- including a big 400-point selloff on Tuesday. Meanwhile, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal agreed that a recovery in the second half of the year is now less likely than it appeared just a few months ago.'This is like turning a battleship around,' says Ralph Shive, manager of the Wasatch-1st Source Income Equity Fund. 'It's not going to be fixed overnight.'Some investment strategists say we could be in for an extended period of hibernation for consumers and, as a result, a lower economy and subpar corporate profits. 'The average consumer has had a near-death experience as far their economic security is concerned,' says Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners. 'It's hard to see something like that not having a long-term impact.'Stocks Are Cheap, But ...Mr. Trennert says the most important question will be whether the government's efforts can halt waves of layoffs sweeping through the economy. 'The employment situation is the critical element in restoring some sort of stabilization in the economy.'For investors, the dilemma is that stock prices, especially those closely linked to the consumer, have already fallen sharply. Some argue that the market has already factored in a bleak outlook for the consumer this year, and that while there may not be a sharp rebound in stock prices, the lowest levels on many shares may have already been reached.That would argue for beginning a gradual shift toward positioning for an eventual economic rebound by adding to positions in so-called cyclical stocks, such as energy and materials companies, whose shares have fallen significantly in recent months.Others disagree. Mr. Shive at Wasatch, for example, is staying solidly on the defense. He has nearly 20% of the fund sitting in cash. 'Keeping the powder dry makes sense until we get the financial system stabilized,' says the fund manager, based in South Bend, Ind.He's avoiding so-called discretionary-spending stocks, such as restaurants and most retailers. 'We do have a pretty good weighting toward companies which offer products that people need to have and buy,' he says. Among the so-called consumer-staples names Mr. Shive owns are Kimberly-Clark and PepsiCo. In addition, he has a hefty slug of health-care stocks such as Abbott Laboratories.At Strategas, Mr. Trennert says the coming market environment will favor strong dividend payers. 'It's going to be difficult to get returns through an excess of profit growth,' he says. Instead, 'a big part of the return you are going to get is going to be from dividends.'Mr. Trennert and others also think it could be a tough environment for investment strategies that focus on turnarounds of out-of-favor companies. Such 'deep value' strategies may be challenged in an environment where credit is limited.James Swanson, chief investment strategist at MFS Investments, also says the focus should be on quality. Among the traits to look for, he says, are technological innovations and low debt burdens.Waiting Out the YearBut with the economy and stocks potentially struggling for months to come, Mr. Swanson thinks high-quality corporate bonds are attractive. Whenever the economy stabilizes and corporate profits recover, those bonds should rally. In the meantime, yields on those securities are exceptionally high compared with U.S. Treasurys, which means investors are essentially paid to wait it out.Mr. Swanson isn't extremely pessimistic about the long-term outlook, however. He thinks that by year end, the government's moves to help the economy will kick in. While consumers will be hobbled by their debt burden and, as a result, overall economic activity will be more moderate than in past recoveries, he expects U.S. consumers to get back to their spending ways as soon as they are able. 'Memories are short,' he says.Tom Lauricella