The Real-Deal Rally, Or Another Fake?

在业绩发布期来临时，市场一直在上下波动。在本轮市场反弹过程中，投资者无疑比2007年末熊市开始以来的上三次反弹都更为乐观。当然，无法回避的问题是，这到底是一次实实在在的反弹，还是另一个假动作，将随着让投资者失望的大量疲弱的业绩或经济报告发布，或是财政部宣布压力测试结果后银行出现挤兑而昙花一现。花旗集团(Citigroup)全球策略师巴克兰德(Robert Buckland)说，假动作在以前的熊市中屡见不鲜。比如，在2000年至2003年全球股市下跌了52%的上一轮熊市期间，投资者经历了四次10%以上的反弹，最终股价才在2003年3月创出新高，开始了下一轮牛市。他指出，只有众多因素（如经济指标收益预期估值和投资者人气）都在向积极的方向发展时，反弹才会持续。2002年至2003年期间最后一次熊市反弹顺利通过了这些因素的考验；本轮反弹好于前三次，但经济收益和信贷仍在说：还不是时候。可以看出改善的一个指标是移动平均线，不过根据这个指标就认定市场一定进入了上升趋势也为时尚早。。Bespoke Investment Group的数据显示，标准普尔500指数最近突破了50日移动平均线，并已经连续11天高于这个水平，是2008年5月以来最长的时间。但200日移动平均线约在987点，目前离这个点位还有很大一段距离。当50日和200日移动平均线都变为同一方向，而标普指数突破这两条移动平均线时，才会形成最佳的持续趋势。但目前，200日移动平均线仍在下降。Blue Marble Research首席投资策略师卡塔拉诺(Vinny Catalano)说，高于50日移动平均线的事实会令人迷惑，它的预测价值其实非常有限。David Gaffen（“市场脉动”深入华尔街内部，寻找影响市场的新闻，分析引起关注的走势和数据，由David Gaffen主笔。）相关阅读市场雄心勃勃  现实不遂人愿 2009-04-16切莫太过看重美股反弹之势 2009-04-15


Amid the churn that is earnings season, the markets have swayed to and fro. Investors have, without a doubt, been more optimistic in the midst of this market's rally than the previous three since the bear market started late in 2007.The ongoing question, of course, is whether this rally is the real deal, or yet another head fake that will be swept up in the thick of poor earnings or economic reports that don't satisfy investors or a run on the banks engendered by results of the Treasury Department's stress tests.'Head fakes have been a common feature during previous bear markets,' writes Robert Buckland, global strategist at Citigroup. 'For example, during the last bear market from 2000 to 2003, where global equities fell 52%, investors experienced four rallies of more than 10% before stock prices eventually turned higher in March 2003 to begin the next bull run.'He notes that rallies tend not to stick until a number of factors are moving in a positive direction, including economic indicators, earnings expectations, valuation and investor sentiment. The final bear market rally in the 2002-2003 period performed well on these tests; the current rally is better than the first three, but the 'economy, earnings and credit are still saying, 'Not yet.''One area where improvement can be seen is in the moving averages, although here, it's still too early to say that the market has definitively moved into an upward trend. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index broke through its 50-day moving average recently and has remained above it for 11 days in a row, the longest period since May 2008, according to Bespoke Investment Group.However, the 200-day moving average is approximately 987, and the market is nowhere near it. The best measure for a sustained trend comes when the S&P breaks both of those moving averages when they're trending in the same direction - and the 200-day moving average is still falling.'The fact that we are above the 50-day is a distraction,' said Vinny Catalano, chief investment strategist at Blue Marble Research. 'It has extremely limited predictive value.'David Gaffen