Little Chance Of Talking Up This Market

毫无疑问，美国政府与金融市场之间存在着沟通不良的问题。奥巴马总统和美国联邦储备委员会主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)周二将有机会谈及此事。贝南克将在国会发表半年一度的货币政策证词。奥巴马则将在国会联席会议上发表讲话，公布预算战略的大部分内容。自这场剧烈的金融危机开始以来，金融市场把政策制定者的每句话都奉为“圣旨”，但结果却不尽如人意。投资者满怀希望，认为政府会拯救一切时，股市反弹；当他们意识到政府做不到时，股市下挫。就连利好消息对股市的提振作用也越来越无力。周一，受政府与花旗集团(Citigroup)谈判增持该公司股份消息的提振，股市仅仅在开盘时涨了一下，随即就遭到新一轮令人不安的抛售打压。一种解释是现实的因素起作用了：银行国有化──或者说实际上就是有控制的破产──在银行业的“愈合过程”中是必要甚至或许是不可避免的一步。不过，仅仅银行国有化是不会令信贷损失刹住车的，美国国际集团(AIG)对政府救助无休无止的需求就是一个明证。另外一种可能是，市场对它们的救助者失去了信任。财政部美联储和其他监管机构周一说银行资金水平适当，这话听起来有点像一厢情愿。如果本周开始的“监管压力测试”看上去像是没有经过认真考虑的措施，没有给资产负债表带来一线光明，政府的信誉会受到更严重的打击。政府公报显然不能过于悲观，不过它们应该避免为这样的看法添油加醋：问题的解决仍然继续在往后推。一些批评人士说，奥巴马过于悲观，他需要通过将现实告知民众来振奋人心。WJB Capital Group首席市场策略师雷诺兹(Brian Reynolds)说，市场宁愿要诚实和现实，也不要虚假的希望。他们知道现在政府在这件事上无能为力。Mark Gongloff相关阅读09年投资当谨慎 2009-02-24美股市场陷入信任危机 2009-02-23股市暴跌带来调整投资组合良机 2009-02-20 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月24日10:57', 'DWA'));Dreamworks Animation Skg Inc. (cl A)总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：DWA


There is no doubt that the government and financial markets have a communication problem.President Obama and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will have chances to address the disconnect on Tuesday. Mr. Bernanke is slated to deliver his semiannual monetary-policy testimony on Capitol Hill. Mr. Obama will speak to a joint session of Congress, disclosing much of his budget strategy.Financial markets have clung to every word from policy makers' mouths throughout the raging financial crisis, with poor results. Stocks rebound on hopes the government will save everything, then fall on the realization it can't.Even the upside jolts have been increasingly anemic. A rally Monday that was sparked by talk of a bigger government stake in Citigroup barely survived the opening bell, and then was overwhelmed by yet another unnerving selloff.One explanation is that reality is setting in: Bank nationalization -- or controlled bankruptcy, really -- is a necessary and probably inevitable step in the banking industry's healing process. But that alone won't stop the credit losses, as evidenced by American International Group Inc.'s unquenchable thirst for government cash.Another possibility is that markets are losing faith in their rescuers. Monday's assertion by the Treasury Department, Fed and other regulators that banks are adequately capitalized smacks of wishful thinking. If regulatory 'stress tests' starting this week look like rubber stamps that don't shine light on balance sheets, credibility will suffer even more.Government communiques obviously can't be too downbeat, but they should avoid feeding the view that problems are still being postponed for a later day. While some critics say Mr. Obama is too gloomy, he needs to leaven uplift with reality.'The markets would prefer honesty and reality rather than false hopes,' says Brian Reynolds, chief market strategist at WJB Capital Group. 'They know there is nothing the government can do to stop this now.'Mark Gongloff