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讲师：Wanis Kabbaj
授课语言：英文
类型：艺术、演讲、TED全网首播
课程简介：本期TED演讲嘉宾带给大家一个全新的视角来看待城市交通拥挤问题,并大胆提出一个终极解决方案。他认为我们现在有梦想，有概念，有技术来改变城市的交通问题，接下来就是行动吧！ （网易公开课编辑整理）
What if traffic flowed through our streets as smoothly and efficiently as blood flows through our veins? Transportation geek Wanis Kabbaj thinks we can find inspiration in the genius of our biology to design the transit systems of the future. In this forward-thinking talk, preview exciting concepts like modular, detachable buses, flying taxis and networks of suspended magnetic pods that could help make the dream of a dynamic, driverless world into a reality.
00:12
Some people are obsessed by French wines. Others love playing golf or devouring literature. One of my greatest pleasures in life is, I have to admit, a bit special. I cannot tell you how much I enjoy watching cities from the sky, from an airplane window.
00:32
Some cities are calmly industrious, like Dusseldorf or Louisville. Others project an energy that they can hardly contain, like New York or Hong Kong. And then you have Paris or Istanbul, and their patina full of history.
00:54
I see cities as living beings. And when I discover them from far above, I like to find those main streets and highways that structure their space. Especially at night, when commuters make these arteries look dramatically red and golden: the city's vascular system performing its vital function right before your eyes. But when I'm sitting in my car after an hour and a half of commute every day, that reality looks very different.
01:26
(Laughter)
01:27
Nothing -- not public radio, no podcast --
01:31
(Laughter) Not even mindfulness meditation makes this time worth living.
01:36
(Laughter)
01:38
Isn't it absurd that we created cars that can reach 130 miles per hour and we now drive them at the same speed as 19th-century horse carriages?
01:49
(Laughter)
01:50
In the US alone, we spent 29.6 billion hours commuting in 2014. With that amount of time, ancient Egyptians could have built 26 Pyramids of Giza.
02:04
(Laughter)
02:05
We do that in one year. A monumental waste of time, energy and human potential.
02:12
For decades, our remedy for congestion was simple: build new roads or enlarge existing ones. And it worked.It worked admirably for Paris, when the city tore down hundreds of historical buildings to create 85 miles of transportation-friendly boulevards. And it still works today in fast-growing emerging cities. But in more established urban centers, significant network expansions are almost impossible: habitat is just too dense,real estate, too expensive and public finances, too fragile. Our city's vascular system is getting clogged, it's getting sick, and we should pay attention.
02:53
Our current way of thinking is not working. For our transportation to flow, we need a new source of inspiration.
03:02
So after 16 years working in transportation, my "aha moment" happened when speaking with a biotech customer. She was telling me how her treatment was leveraging specific properties of our vascular system."Wow," I thought, "Our vascular system -- all the veins and arteries in our body making miracles of logistics every day." This is the moment I realized that biology has been in the transportation business for billions of years. It has been testing countless solutions to move nutrients, gases and proteins. It really is the world's most sophisticated transportation laboratory.
03:43
So, what if the solution to our traffic challenges was inside us? I wanted to know: Why is it that blood flows in our veins most of our lives, when our big cities get clogged on a daily basis? And the reality is that you're looking at two very different networks. I don't know if you realize, but each of us has 60,000 miles of blood vessels in our bodies -- 60,000 miles. That's two-and-a-half times the Earth's circumference, inside you. What it means is that blood vessels are everywhere inside us, not just under the surface of our skin.
04:22
But if you look at our cities, yes, we have some underground subway systems and some tunnels and bridges,and also some helicopters in the sky. But the vast majority of our traffic is focused on the ground, on the surface. So in other words, while our vascular system uses the three dimensions inside us, our urban transportation is mostly two-dimensional. And so what we need is to embrace that verticality. If our surface grid is saturated, well, let's elevate our traffic.
04:56
This Chinese concept of a bus that can straddle traffic jams -- that was an eye-opener on new ways to think about space and movement inside our cities. And we can go higher, and suspend our transportation like we did with our electrical grid. Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi are talking about testing these futuristic networks of suspended magnetic pods. And we can keep climbing, and fly. The fact that a company like Airbus is now seriously working on flying urban taxis is telling us something. Flying cars are finally moving from science-fiction déjà vu to attractive business-case territory. And that's an exciting moment.
05:42
So building this 3-D transportation network is one of the ways we can mitigate and solve traffic jams. But it's not the only one. We have to question other fundamental choices that we made, like the vehicles we use. Just imagine a very familiar scene: You've been driving for 42 minutes. The two kids behind you are getting restless. And you're late. Do you see that slow car in front of you? Always comes when you're late, right?
06:13
(Laughter)
06:14
That driver is looking for parking. There is no parking spot available in the area, but how would he know? It is estimated that up to 30 percent of urban traffic is generated by drivers looking for parking. Do you see the 100 cars around you? Eighty-five of them only have one passenger. Those 85 drivers could all fit in one Londonian red bus. So the question is: Why are we wasting so much space if it is what we need the most? Why are we doing this to ourselves?
06:45
Biology would never do this. Space inside our arteries is fully utilized. At every heartbeat, a higher blood pressure literally compacts millions of red blood cells into massive trains of oxygen that quickly flow throughout our body. And the tiny space inside our red blood cells is not wasted, either. In healthy conditions,more than 95 percent of their oxygen capacity is utilized. Can you imagine if the vehicles we used in our citieswere 95 percent full, all the additional space you would have to walk, to bike and to enjoy our cities?
07:22
The reason blood is so incredibly efficient is that our red blood cells are not dedicated to specific organs or tissues; otherwise, we would probably have traffic jams in our veins. No, they're shared. They're shared by all the cells of our body. And because our network is so extensive, each one of our 37 trillion cells gets its own deliveries of oxygen precisely when it needs them.
07:48
Blood is both a collective and individual form of transportation. But for our cities, we've been stuck. We've been stuck in an endless debate between creating a car-centric society or extensive mass-transit systems. I think we should transcend this. I think we can create vehicles that combine the convenience of cars and the efficiencies of trains and buses. Just imagine. You're comfortably sitting in a fast and smooth urban train,along with 1,200 passengers. The problem with urban trains is that sometimes you have to stop five, ten, fifteen times before your final destination.
08:30
What if in this train you didn't have to stop? In this train, wagons can detach dynamically while you're movingand become express, driverless buses that move on a secondary road network. And so without a single stop,nor a lengthy transfer, you are now sitting in a bus that is headed toward your suburb. And when you get close, the section you're sitting in detaches and self-drives you right to your doorstep. It is collective and individual at the same time. This could be one of the shared, modular, driverless vehicles of tomorrow.
09:09
Now ... as if walking in a city buzzing with drones, flying taxis, modular buses and suspended magnetic podswas not exotic enough, I think there is another force in action that will make urban traffic mesmerizing. If you think about it, the current generation of driverless cars is just trying to earn its way into a traffic grid made by and for humans. They're trying to learn traffic rules, which is relatively simple, and coping with human unpredictability, which is more challenging.
09:45
But what would happen when whole cities become driverless? Would we need traffic lights? Would we need lanes? How about speed limits? Red blood cells are not flowing in lanes. They never stop at red lights. In the first driverless cities, you would have no red lights and no lanes. And when all the cars are driverless and connected, everything is predictable and reaction time, minimum. They can drive much faster and can take any rational initiative that can speed them up or the cars around them. So instead of rigid traffic rules, flow will be regulated by a mesh of dynamic and constantly self-improving algorithms. The result: a strange traffic that mixes the fast and smooth rigor of German autobahns and the creative vitality of the intersections of Mumbai.
10:40
(Laughter)
10:42
Traffic will be functionally exuberant. It will be liquid like our blood. And by a strange paradox, the more robotized our traffic grid will be, the more organic and alive its movement will feel.
10:55
So yes, biology has all the attributes of a transportation genius today. But this process has taken billions of years, and went through all sorts of iterations and mutations. We can't wait billions of years to evolve our transportation system. We now have the dreams, the concepts and the technology to create 3-D transportation networks, invent new vehicles and change the flow in our cities.
11:23
Let's do it.
11:24
Thank you.
11:25
(Applause)
00:12
有些人对法国葡萄酒着迷， 有些人喜欢打高尔夫球， 或者沉浸在文学作品里。 我生活中最大的乐趣是， 我不得不承认， 有点特殊。 我无法形容 我有多么享受从飞机上 俯视整个城市。
00:32
有些城市的工业化程度刚刚好， 比如杜塞尔多夫， 或者路易维尔。 而有些城市已经早已不堪重负， 像纽约，或香港。 然后，还有像巴黎， 伊斯坦堡这样 充满历史的城市。
00:54
我把城市当作生命体， 当我从高空鸟瞰它们的时候， 我喜欢寻找那些组成了 城市框架的主要街道和高速公路。特别是在晚上， 人们让这些城市的动脉变得 异常鲜红和金黄： 城市的血液循环系统生机勃勃地 展现在你的眼前。 但是，当我坐在自己的车里， 每天有一个半小时的时间都堵在路上， 眼前的一切就截然不同了。
01:26
（笑声）
01:27
什么都没有—— 没有广播节目， 没有播客，
01:31
（笑声） 连能让这些时间变得有点意义的 专注的冥想都做不到。
01:36
（笑声）
01:38
这难道不可笑吗？ 我们制造了能够达到 时速210公里的汽车， 却以19世纪马车一样的 速度驾驶它们。
01:49
（笑声）
01:50
仅仅在美国， 2014年我们就 花了296亿小时在通勤上。 在这么多的时间里， 古埃及人都能造出26个胡夫金字塔了。
02:04
（笑声）
02:05
我们用了一年就做到了。 这是对时间，精力和 人类潜能巨大的浪费。
02:12
数十年来， 我们解决交通拥堵的方式都很简单： 建造新路或者拓宽现存的道路， 效果还算不错。 巴黎的建设卓有成效， 他们拆毁了上百幢历史建筑， 建造了137公里的 交通友好型的大道。 在当今快速兴起的城市中也是如此。 但是在很多繁华的城市中心， 较大的道路拓宽几乎是不可能的： 建筑过于密集， 房价过高， 公共建设资金太少。 我们的城市血液循环系统正在 变得拥堵，无法正常发挥功能， 应该引起我们的重视。
02:53
我们现有的思维方式 已经不起作用了。 为了让交通流动起来， 我们需要一种新的灵感。
03:02
我在交通部门工作了16年， 在和一个生物技术背景的 顾客交谈时突然茅塞顿开。 她告诉我她的研究 如何影响了我们血液循环 系统的一些特殊性质。 “哇”，我想到，“我们的血液循环系统， 我们身体内的所有动脉和静脉，每天都在创造生理的奇迹。" 就是那个时候我意识到， 生物学已经存在于交通方面 几十亿年了。 它已经测试过无数方法， 转移养分，气体和蛋白质。 这真的是世界上最复杂的交通系统。
03:43
所以，如果交通拥堵的 解决方案就在我们体内呢？ 我想知道， 为什么绝大多数时间， 血液在血管中不会堵塞？但我们的大城市每天都会拥堵？ 事实上，这是两种非常不同的系统。 我不知道你意识到了没有， 实际上我们每个人体内都有近 十万公里长的血管—— 十万公里。 你的体内有两个半的 地球赤道。 这意味着血管在你身体里无处不在， 不仅只在皮肤下面（看得见的地方）。
04:22
但是，看看我们的城市， 是，我们的确有一些地铁系统， 一些隧道和桥梁， 以及天空中的直升机。 但是绝大多数的交通都是在地面， 在地表上。 换句话说， 我们体内的血管系统是立体结构的， 而绝大多数的城市交通系统 都是平面结构的。 所以我们需要利用更多的纵向空间。 如果地表已经没有多余的空间， 那我们就把交通系统抬高。
04:56
这个中国的概念巴士 能够凌驾于拥堵的交通道路之上， 这种对城市内部的 空间和移动的思考方式 多么让人大开眼界。 然而我们可以把 交通系统的位置继续抬升， 像我们的输电网络一样。 特拉维夫和阿布扎比正在考虑检测这些构成未来交通网络的 悬挂式磁性胶囊车厢。 我们还可以继续抬高，甚至飞翔。 事实上像空中客车这样的公司 正在认真研究城市飞行的士， 看起来前景光明。 飞行汽车终于从科幻小说进入到了 引人注目的商业领域。这是令人激动的时刻。
05:42
建造这些立体交通网络 是减少或解决交通堵塞的方法之一。 但还有其他方法。 我们还要考虑 其他基本的选择， 比如我们使用的交通工具。 想象一个非常熟悉的场景： 你已经开车42分钟了。 后座的两个小孩开始不耐烦。 而且你要迟到了。 你看到前面那辆慢吞吞的车了吗？ 总是在你迟到的时候出现，对吧？
06:13
（笑声）
06:14
那个驾驶员正在寻找停车位。 那块区域没有空车位， 但是他怎么会知道？ 据估计，有将近30%的城市交通拥堵是由 驾驶员找车位造成的。 你看见身边的100辆车了吗？ 其中的85辆都只有一位乘客。 那85个驾驶员能够 装满一辆伦敦红巴士。 所以问题是， 为什么我们浪费这么多宝贵的空间？ 为什么我们要这样对自己？
06:45
生物学永远不会这样。 我们血管的空间都被充分利用了。 每一次心跳 产生的血压能够为数百万血细胞 压缩大量的氧气进行运输， 并很快流遍全身。 连血细胞内的 微小空间也没有被浪费。 在健康条件下， 超过95%的氧容量都能够被使用。 你能够想象如果 我们城市里超过95%的 交通工具都是满载的， 剩下的空间，能够让你 自由地走路，骑车， 享受这个城市吗？
07:22
血液是如此有效率的原因 是我们的血细胞不只作用于 特定器官或组织； 要不然，我们的血管可能也会堵塞。 它们实际上是共享的。 它们被身体所有的细胞共有。 但是因为我们的身体系统如此庞大， 37万亿细胞中的每一个 都有自己的氧气输送渠道， 有需要时能实现精准输送。
07:48
血液既是集体，也是个体的运输方式。 但是对我们的城市来说， 我们被困住了。 我们被无尽的争辩困住了， 纠结于创造一个以汽车为中心的社会， 还是打造大型的交通系统。 我觉得我们应该跳出这些限制。 我觉得我们能建造出 结合传统汽车的便捷， 和火车巴士的效率的交通工具。 想想看， 你舒服地坐在一辆 快速平稳的城市火车上， 还有其他1200个乘客。 城市火车的问题在于 有时候你要停下五次、十次、十五次 才到达你的站点。
08:30
如果这个火车不用停下呢？ 这辆火车的 车厢能够在移动中自动脱离， 成为高速的无人驾驶巴士， 飞驰在次级运输道路上。 所以无需任何停顿， 也无需长距离的换乘， 你正坐在一辆驶向城区的巴士中。 快到的时候， 你所坐的部分会脱离， 自动驾驶到你的目的地跟前。 这就同时实现了集体和个体运输。 这可能就是未来的公共模块化 无人驾驶交通工具之一。
09:09
现在再想象一下， 你行走在满是无人机， 飞行的士，模块化巴士和 悬挂式磁性胶囊车厢的城市， 这还不够天马行空。 我觉得还有一个方法， 能够减轻城市交通堵塞。 想想看， 现在的无人驾驶汽车都在尝试 适应人类的驾驶网络。 它们在尝试学习相对简单的交通规则， 并适应人类行为的不确定性， 这相对比较难。
09:45
但是当整个城市都实现了 无人驾驶，会发生什么？ 我们还需要红绿灯吗？ 我们需要车道吗？ 限速呢？ 血细胞可不是沿着特定的通道移动。 他们从不在红灯停下。 第一个无人驾驶城市， 不会有红灯和车道。 当车辆都实现无人驾驶 并互相联网的时候， 任何事情都是可预测的， 反应时间达到最短。 它们能够驾驶得更快， 可以理性地做出选择来加速， 或者让身边的车辆先行。 没有严格的交通规则， 车流会被 一个流动网络和不断 自我改进的算法管制。 结果就产生了一种新颖的交通， 混合了德国高速公路的快捷和通畅， 和孟买交岔路的创造性和活力。
10:40
（笑声）
10:42
交通会在功能上更活跃， 变成血液一样的液体。 听上去像是一种悖论， 但我们的交通越机械自动化， 就会如有机体般，变得更活跃。
10:55
所以是的， 生物学包含着所有 关于交通运输的智慧， 但是这个过程花了数十亿年， 经过了无数消除和变异的过程。 我们没法等待数十亿年来 改善交通系统。 我们现在有了梦想， 概念， 和技术， 来创造立体交通网络， 研发新的交通工具， 来改变城市的交通流动。
11:23
让我们行动起来吧。
11:24
谢谢。
11:25
（鼓掌）