潜伏期最长24天？拐点何时出现？钟南山回应了
据央视新闻报道，2月11日，钟南山院士接受央视记者独家专访，回应了近日媒体报道“钟南山的最新论文发现新冠肺炎潜伏期最长可达24天”的问题。
钟南山院士表示：有关我们团队关于1099例新冠肺炎患者临床特征的文章，这个研究是全国30个省、自治区和直辖市共计552家医院提供临床的数据，研究团队对患者临床特征进行综合分析的。
这篇文章是一个预印版，预印版本身就需要征求更多的同行意见，按照预印版的官方要求，其信息并不能给媒体引用，也不能指导临床，必须要经过同行评议。
在预印版里面的潜伏期，我们有一种统计的方法是根据患者的口述来记录下来的，我们根据患者讲述过接触传染源时间以及症状最早出现的时间进行计算，最长的是24天。
但实际上真正叙述有24天的病人只有1例，也就是说1099例中只有1例。
Only one patient infected with the new strain of the coronavirus was found to have an incubation period of as much as 24 days, renowned Chinese respiratory expert Zhong Nanshan said Tuesday.
The time between initial exposure and development of the first symptoms of the illness is based on the patient’s account of the illness.
The research is based on a sample of 1,099 coronavirus patients selected from 552 hospitals throughout China.
The findings were published on Sunday on medRxiv, the free online archive and distribution server for complete but unpublished medical papers. More research and comments from other doctors is needed.
以这仅有的1例患者报道的时间作为疾病的最长潜伏期是不够科学的，既往其它疾病也有先例，如狂犬病。
Zhong, who is leading a government-appointed panel of experts to help control the coronavirus outbreak, said caution is needed because there's not enough evidence to regard 24 days as the longest incubation period for the novel coronavirus.
我们的研究显示所有患者潜伏期的中位数是4天，此外，我们在这篇文章即将报道四分位间距，分别是2天与7天（即差距为5天），其更加科学地反映了人群的总体情况。
The median incubation period is 4 days, less than the estimated 5.2 days, according to the research conducted by Zhong and his team.
因此关于未发表的文章部分信息不应该被过度解读。
“The information in the paper should not be overinterpreted,” Zhong said.
估计2月中下旬到峰值 拐点是否出现要看二次返程情况
11日下午，广东医疗队武汉前方ICU团队与后方广州医科大学附属第一医院举行远程视频病例讨论会议。钟南山院士通过视频连线说，从目前来看，疫情拐点还无法预测，但峰值应该在2月中下旬出现。疫情拐点由返程高峰的防控情况决定。
Chinese respiratory expert Zhong Nanshan predicted on Tuesday that the novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) epidemic will reach its peak in mid-to-late February, based on data model analysis. Zhong made the remarks at a teleconsultation with a medical team working in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak.
However, the turning point of the outbreak will be decided by the prevention and control efforts during the coming traffic peak involving hundreds of millions of migrant workers returning to work after the Spring Festival holiday, Zhong said.
钟南山说，没有任何人可以做出一个严格的拐点预测，但通过一些数学模型分析，也结合实际情况来看，现在全国新增病例的速度比原来慢慢有所减缓，南方地区应该2月中旬达到发病最高峰。
全国返程是否会导致进一步的发病高峰？钟南山认为，不太会有新的更高的高峰，因为延长假期已把潜伏期度过，加上各个城市严格的哨点进行健康监测，如发现有问题，肯定会被隔离。
钟南山认为，危重症病人看起来治疗仍有一定难度，新冠肺炎跟SARS不太一样，治疗还需更多探索。现在的治疗实际上是超越常规的治疗，新冠肺炎有独特的病理特征，抗病毒和抗炎（抗病毒引起的炎症风暴）是两个主要问题。
“相信有足够的场所，有充足的医生，有较好的防护工具，以及有我们多方面的支撑团队，武汉的情况应该会比较快地改观，但是现在还处于一个相当困难的阶段。”钟南山说。
综合来源：中国日报双语新闻微信公众号，人民日报微信公众号，央视新闻，CGTN，CHINADAILY微信公众号
