独立博客#1 : What Microsoft is this the Altair basic of?

作者：Paul Graham
时间：2015年2月
原文：What Microsoft is this the Altair basic of?
翻译：梅晨斐，校验：曾樑

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One of the most valuable exercises you can try if you want to understand startups is to look at the most successful companies and explain why they were not as lame as they seemed when they first launched. Because they practically all seemed lame at first. Not just small, lame. Not just the first step up a big mountain. More like the first step into a swamp.
如果你希望了解创业公司，最有效的途径之一，就是去翻阅现在那些大公司之前的经历，并且尝试去理解为什么他们现在的样子不像当初产品初创时期一样傻。因为，所有现在所谓得成功企业，当初最早的想法或产品原型看上去都是很可笑的。不止受众面小，真的很可笑。完全看不出下一步将会发展成一家大公司的样子，那时候看上去像下一步就将踏进沼泽的样子。

A Basic interpreter for the Altair? How could that ever grow into a giant company? People sleeping on airbeds in strangers' apartments? A web site for college students to stalk one another? A wimpy little single-board computer for hobbyists that used a TV as a monitor? A new search engine, when there were already about 10, and they were all trying to de-emphasize search? These ideas didn't just seem small. They seemed wrong. They were the kind of ideas you could not merely ignore, but ridicule.
我们该如何解释这种现象？这些公司是如何发展成现在的样子的？人们睡在陌生人家中的睡袋内？帮助大学生追踪彼此的网站？一个看上去无用的单板计算机，接上电视机当显示器使用？一个全新的搜索引擎，尽管当时市场上已经有超过10款搜索引擎了。这些想法在当时看上去不止受众小，它们根本就是错误的想法。这些都是看了就会被遗忘的想法，而且有些甚至很可笑。

Often the founders themselves didn't know why their ideas were promising. They were attracted to these ideas by instinct, because they were living in the future and they sensed that something was missing. But they could not have put into words exactly how their ugly ducklings were going to grow into big, beautiful swans.
另外这些创始人当时也并不明白他们的想法在未来将会有多大的发展空间。他们通常都是被直觉吸引做出选择，但是他们大多以未来的角度进行思考，总感觉现在市场上缺少了一些什么。但是他们在当时，往往无法以语言的形式描述他们那个时候的小产品，将如何在未来发展成为美丽的天鹅。

Most people's first impulse when they hear about a lame-sounding new startup idea is to make fun of it. Even a lot of people who should know better.
When I encounter a startup with a lame-sounding idea, I ask "What Microsoft is this the Altair Basic of?" Now it's a puzzle, and the burden is on me to solve it. Sometimes I can't think of an answer, especially when the idea is a made-up one. But it's remarkable how often there does turn out to be an answer. Often it's one the founders themselves hadn't seen yet.
大多数人们第一次听到这次看似荒唐的想法时都会嘲笑他们。当我与怀揣类似想法的创业者交流的时候， 我都不禁问自己：“？”。这始终是一个谜题，而我们只能自己解决。有时候我无法给出一个答案，特别是当这些创业想法都是创始人自己猜想出来的时候。

Intriguingly, there are sometimes multiple answers. I talked to a startup a few days ago that could grow into 3 distinct Microsofts. They'd probably vary in size by orders of magnitude. But you can never predict how big a Microsoft is going to be, so in cases like that I encourage founders to follow whichever path is most immediately exciting to them. Their instincts got them this far. Why stop now?
有趣的是，有时候我们能得到不同的多个答案。我在与一位创业者交流的过程中发现，他们的项目能够往三个不同的方向独立发展。就像你无法预测微软到底能够发展成多大规模一样，在这种情况下，我通常鼓励创业者选择他们现在最感兴趣的一个方向去做。是直觉将这些创业者带到了现在这个阶段，为什么现在要去阻止他们呢？

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