2017年1月，盘古智库课题组在特朗普就任之前一周，发布了《新一届美国政府内外政策展望——美国当选总统特朗普候任期观察报告》。特朗普已于1月20日正式就职，其在就职演说中所传递的信息及之后出台的各项政策措施实际上正不断印证报告的若干推断。
吕晶华：新一届美国政府内外政策展望 ——来自盘古智库的观察（中英文版）
天地人和 经世致用
Harmony Knowledge Solutions
吕晶华
盘古智库高级研究员
2017年1月，盘古智库课题组在特朗普就任之前一周，发布了《新一届美国政府内外政策展望——美国当选总统特朗普候任期观察报告》。报告根据唐纳德·特朗普在侯任期内的各项执政准备工作，结合他本人的性格特点与内阁组成，以关乎中国利益的各项事务为重点，展望特朗普政府在经济、能源、外交、军事、安全等重要领域的执政脉络，并就中美关系发展提出思考。特朗普已于1月20日正式就职，其在就职演说中所传递的信息及之后出台的各项政策措施实际上正不断印证报告的若干推断。
报告开篇是对特朗普政府经济政策的评估。报告认为，本届政府最重要的任务，是通过宽松财政政策推动经济持续增长。所提出的举措，包括“亲增长的”税改、大兴基础设施建设、加息、放松金融监管和吸引制造业回流等，可能在一年内产生积极效果。但出于抑制泡沫的考虑，新政府还必须终结已持续八年的货币宽松周期，这与前者相互矛盾，显然难以持续。加之这一政策是变相地吃奥巴马政府刺激经济复苏的“老本”，而这笔“经济遗产”并不雄厚，也决定了特朗普难以创造重振美国经济的“奇迹”。对特朗普政府而言，他们甘冒风险采取这样的经济政策，显然意在兑现竞选承诺，解经济增长乏力的“燃眉之急”，而不惜以长期经济困局为代价。与此相似，特朗普在1月23日签署退出TPP总统行政令，同样以短期内提高美国下层民众收入为目标，代价却是丧失了长远战略主导权。按照报告评估，特朗普如果识实务、听建议、知调整，可能会在第一任期后半段回调经济政策。那么，这种回调的可能性多大？其间会对美国经济及全球经济带来多大影响？这应是报告撰写者持续跟踪观察的重要问题。
报告的另一重要内容，是对特朗普及其执政团队的分析。气质和性格特征是预测总统决策趋势的重要线索，报告在为特朗普勾勒“画像”时，突出了以下要素：直率、自恋、表现欲、白人大男子主义、易受愤怒情绪驱动、攻击性行为倾向、睚眦必报、商业交易思维方式。报告还用相当篇幅揭示特朗普政府核心团队的组建过程及其特点，包括：以对总统的忠诚度和对白宫决策的执行力为人事遴选的最优先考虑，所选定成员“白”“右”“军”“商”色彩浓厚，“强势白宫”成为决策核心。与多数评估不同，报告在对这一届班底的保守主义倾向和行政经验不足表示忧虑的同时，还认为他们普遍具有丰富的职业经历、团队管理经验和个人成功史，意味着这将是一届勤勉、敬业、执纪严格的政府。更需要关注的是，这届政府的骨干力量基本上都长期处于政治边缘，突然掌权后一方面必须经历较长的“学习期”和“适应期”，另一方面又难免体现出高度的政治饥渴。加之他们的“进攻性现实主义”风格和简单化的思维模式，在面对错综复杂的现实世界时，可能会以发散式、碎片化的方式治理国家，在外交上常会有“急就章”，这对整个世界的危险性都是不言而喻的。
作为中国智库，报告也用大量篇幅谈论了中国最关注的对华政策问题，形成如下几点核心结论：第一，以交易思维处理对华关系。长期经商、没有任何从政经历的特朗普，处理对华关系的基本逻辑，可能是“你不在我关心的问题上向我做出让步,我便要你在你关心的问题上付出代价”。第二，出于对国内事务的优先关注，特朗普最想要的是中国在经贸问题上向他屈服，为此可能提出减少对美出口、扩大自美进口、强化知识产权执法、扩大钢铁去产能规模、开放美国互联网企业入华等具体要求。第三，虽然特朗普不会在名义上继承“亚太再平衡”政策，但也不会放弃对亚太的关注，相反会在“以实力求和平”原则牵引下，进一步聚焦军力建设和对华竞争，更加频繁地触碰朝核、台海、南海等敏感议题，试图以挑动敏感议题换取中国在经贸领域的让步。特朗普对华政策趋于强硬已是必然，中美关系将迅速进入高度复杂的颠簸起伏期。
最后还要提及的是，不同于以往国内学界研究主要关注美对华政策走向和应对策略，报告还从积极的角度探讨了中国如何主动塑造中美关系。这也是此轮大选前后，中国学术研究界普遍体现出的新变化。诚如报告所言，“中美关系中的资本规律已在运作起来适应新的政治变化”，中国在主动塑造中美关系方面表现出前所未有的能力和自信。报告就此给出两大建议：一是备足“弹药”和“防弹衣”，强化底线意识和博弈能力；二是避免过早下结论，在合理互动中界定未来中美关系的性质和边界。这虽未突破以往“以两手对两手”的基本思路，却更加突出了中国主动作为的一面，是理性、务实处理中美关系的选择。可能也正是基于这样的思考，中国政府在近期一系列突发事件中表现得冷静而坚定，为稳定中美关系做出了贡献。我们真心希望，美国方面也能清醒地认识到中美良性互动的重要意义，避免“零和”范式的侵蚀，共同推动双边关系回到战略沟通与协调轨道。
An Outlook for the Domestic and Foreign Policies of the Trump Administration
On January 11, about one week before Trump’s Inauguration, the Pangoal Institution—a well-known Chinese think-tank—published a report in both Chinese and English, titled An Outlook for the Domestic and Foreign Policies of the New Administration of the US -- Observations over the President-Elect Trump before Inauguration. Based on all the preparation made by Donald Trump and his team, temperament and character of Donald Trump, and possible candidates of the new administration, this report aims to forecast the Trump administration’s way of governance in several aspects, such as economy, energy, foreign policy, military and security. It mainly focuses on issues closely related to the interests of China, and hopes to give clear thinking on where America and China-US relationship are going. In fact, after Trump’s inauguration on January 20, the messages he delivered and the steps he took have supported some conclusions in this report.
The first part is the assessment of economic policy of Trump administration. It says that the most urgent task of the new administration is to maintain sustainable economic growth by adopting loose fiscal policies. Related policies include “pro-growth” tax reforms, strengthening infrastructure, raising interest rates, deregulating the financial sector and attracting manufacturers back to the US. These policies probably will yield actual results in one year after Trump’s inauguration. But on the other hand, to curb economic bubbles, Trump will end the loose monetary policies that have lasted for eight years. The mix of loose fiscal policies and tight monetary policies is self-contradictory and unsustainable. In addition, Trump’s economic policies are actually built upon the economic recovery created by the Obama administration and the “economic legacy” is rather weak, leaving Trump little room to create the miracle of reinvigorating American economy.
The reason why Trump administration is willing to take the risk of adopting such an economic policy is: they hope to fulfill the promise of solving the urgent problem of weak economic growth made by Trump during his election, even at the expense of long-term economic dilemma. Similarly, Trump signed an executive order to withdraw the United States from the TPP trade deal on day one of Presidency in hope of raising the income of the lower class in a short term, at the expense of losing long-term strategic dominance. According to the estimation of the report, If Donald Trump is a pragmatic leader open to advice and adjustment, his economic policies are likely to start approaching to the neutral in the late half of his first term. In this regard, what are the odds? What’s the influence on American economy and global economy? Issues like these need to be followed by the Pangoal Institution Research Team.
Another important part of this report is the analysis of Trump and his administration team. Temperament and character traits are important clues to predict the political decisions of the US president. The “portrait” of Trump falls into a basic framework consisting of the following elements: frankness, narcissistic personality, desire to show off, white male chauvinism, aggressive behavioral tendency, strong desire for revenge, deal mentality. In analyzing the course of selecting people to join the administration, the report highlights three features: first, loyalty to the President and the ability to execute White House decisions are considered top priority in the personnel selection; second, the new cabinet is white-dominated, right-oriented, military-background and business-veterans; third, a strong White House will become the core of US strategic decision-making. However, different from most assessment, aside from showing concern about the conservatism tendency of the candidates and their lack of experience in administration, authors of this report also emphasized that they have rich experience in professional work, team management and personal success, meaning that it will be a diligent administration with full dedication and strict discipline.
Furthermore, as most of the backbone team members have been politically marginalized for too long, there will be a rather long warm-up time full of obstacles before they get into the groove. Together with extreme political hunger, offensive realism style as well as simple thinking mode, when faced with complex reality, Trump’s administration would be reduced to a “hurriedly improvised” administration that governs the country and run diplomatic affairs in a divergent, fragmented and problem-specific way. It would extremely dangerous for the whole world.
As a Chinese think tank, it is natural that the Pangoal Institution Research Team has paid much attention to policies towards China. Main conclusions in the report include: first, tackle relations with China in the deal mentality. Having spent most of his time doing businesses, and frankly inexperienced in politics, the basic logic Trump would follow in coping with China-US ties might be “the other countries have to pay the price for their concerns if they do not make concessions on his concerns”. Second, as his priority will be to achieve results in domestic affairs, what Trump desires most is China’s concessions on economic and trade issues. To this end, Trump is highly likely to make specific demands on China, including reducing exports to and expanding imports from US, enhancing intellectual property law enforcement, enlarging de-capacity in iron and steel industry, and opening access for US internet enterprises. Third, though the term “Asia-Pacific Rebalance” will not be inherited by Trump, his administration will not decrease its focus on this region. Instead, guided by “peace through strength” principle, Trump’s policy will focus on military buildup and competition with China. It can be forecasted that Trump administration will touch on sensitive issues in Asia-Pacific more frequently, such as the Taiwan issue, North Korea issue and South China Sea issue, in hope of forcing China to make concessions on economic and trade issues. Based upon these assessments, one can see that Trump administration will adopt tougher policies towards China, and China-US relations will soon be featured with ups and downs.
Last but not least, the Pangoal Institution Research Team has given constructive suggestions on how to shape the development of the China-US relations more actively. It is, to some degree, different from the past academic research in China that mainly focus on the adjustment of American policies towards China and on how to deal with it during American Presidential election. This is also a new phenomenon among Chinese academic society this year. As the report claims, the capital law in the China-US relations has started to work in response to the new political changes. As a result, China has shown her capability and confidence in actively shaping China-US relations on an unprecedented level. The two suggestions the report gives include: first, weapons and defense should be well prepared, bottom-line awareness and capability of competition should be strengthened; second, avoid making judgments or decisions too soon, and define the nature and boundary of the relations through reasonable interactions. Although these suggestions haven’t broken through the traditional two-handed strategy, they are pragmatic and rational choices for both sides, and China’s proactive rather than reactive attitude in dealing with China-US relations can be sensed. Possibly based on just the same logic, Chinese government has made her contribution to the stability of China-US relations by being calm and firm in a series of major emergencies recently. We sincerely hope the US can also be aware of the significance of positive interaction with China, make its efforts to avoid the encroachment of zero-sum pattern, and cooperate with China to come back to the normal track of strategic communication and coordination.■
英文版首发于中美聚焦
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盘古智库
盘古智库（Pangoal Institution）成立于2013年，是由中外知名学者共同组成，植根于中国的公共政策研究机构。盘古智库也是中联部金砖国家智库中方理事会成员和中联部“一带一路”智库合作联盟理事单位。
经过三年来的高速发展，盘古智库已经成为中国最具影响力的社会智库之一，并荣膺宾夕法尼亚大学全球智库报告2016亚洲最佳智库(排名第57)。
盘古智库秉持“天地人和、经世致用”的理念，以“客观、开放、包容”的态度，致力于推动中国社会的现代化发展进程。盘古智库以思想之力坚定参与实现中华民族伟大复兴的历史进程，是中国梦的实践者，是构建人类命运共同体的助推者。
盘古智库聚焦全球治理、一带一路、创新驱动、宏观经济等领域的研究。作为主要发起单位，盘古智库倡议成立了由来自中国、美国、德国、意大利、印度、新加坡、加拿大等国的海内外近二十家一流智库组成的全球治理智库连线，大大提高了中国智库在全球治理中的话语权。
盘古智库汇聚了超过200名在国内外学界、政界、智库界、企业界等领域声望卓著的专业人士担任高级顾问、学术委员、高级研究员及研究员。
目前，盘古智库拥有专职研究与工作人员50余人，总部位于北京香山，并在上海、深圳、长沙等城市设立了办事机构。