【读书三问】
阅读内容: 《穷查理宝典》 Poor Charlie's Almanack---Talk Six
Investment Practices of Leading Charitable Foundations
【1.印象最深刻的部分】内容中你觉得印象最深刻的部分是什么?
Human nature being what it is, most people assume away worries like those I raise. After all, centuries before Christ, Demosthenes noted, "what a man wishes, he will believe." And in self-appraisals of prospects and talents, it is the norm, as Demosthenes predicted, for people to be ridiculously over-optimistic.
由于人类的本性,一个人想要什么,就会相信什么,从而表现得过于乐观。
Smart, hardworking people aren't exempted from professional disasters from overconfidence. Often, they just go aground in the more difficult voyages they choose, relying on their self-appraisals that they have superior talents and methods.
聪明而勤奋的人也会因为过度自信而犯灾难性的专业错误。因为他们往往以为自己拥有超人的才华和方法,给自己选择了更困难的航程,从而触礁搁浅。
It is, of course, irritating that extra care in thinking is not all good but also introduces extra error. But most good things have undesired "side effecls," and thinking is no exception. The best defense is that of the best physicists, who systematically criticize themselves to an extreme degree, using a mindset described by Nobel laureate Richard Feynman as follows:"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you're the easiest person to fool."
要消除思考的副作用,最好的办法是向那些最优秀的物理学家学习,他们会系统地批判自己。
【2.与现实的联系】这本书与现实之间有哪些联系?
如果用一句话来描述股市,那么就是“一个注定最终只有少数人获胜的财富游戏”。“七亏二平一赚”似乎是个挥之不去的魔咒,要想成为真正的获利者面临极高的壁垒。然而总有人过于高估自己的投资能力,从而导致一败涂地的境地。
【3.行动和改变】你可以做出哪些行动来改变你的现实生活?
只有充分认识到股市将注定是少数人获胜的游戏,充分理解投资“简单但不容易”的内在意义,才算是开始正视了投资,开始有机会进入投资的大门。
Summary
This speech was delivered on October 14, 1998 to the Foundation F'inancial Officers Group in Sanca Monica.
In the talk, he attacks the accepted and practiced orthodoxy of his audience with sharp humor, though always without malice. Charlie has a deep and abiding belief in philanthropy, as is demonstrated by his own generous giving, and he seeks here to save the philanthropic community from itself.
这个演讲的内容,涉及到很多专业词汇和投资方法,所谓内行看门道 外行看热闹,那么我这个外行人也就凑个热闹罢了。笔记不当之处,敬请斧正~
首先芒格开门见山,直接指出他所讲的内容可能会跟大多数投资策略格格不入,并且直接批评了某些慈善基金的常规做法。那么这些基金应如何才能改善未来的投资业绩?
What are this fearful foundation's options as it seeks improved prospects? There are at least three modern choices:
1. The foundation can both dispense with its consultants and reduce its investment turnover as it changes to indexed investment in equities. 解雇投资顾问,减少投资次数,改为指数投资
2. The foundation can follow the example of Berkshire Hathaway, and thus get total annual croupier costs below one-tenth of one percent of principal per annum, by investing wirh virtually total passivity in a very few much-admired domestic corporarions. 长期持有国内少数几家优秀公司
3. The foundation can supplement unleveraged investment in marketable equities with investment in limited partnerships that do some combination of the following: unleveraged investment in high-tech corporations in their infancy; 对一些处在创办初期的高科技公司进行非杠杆式投资 leveraged invesrments in corporate buy-outs; 利用财务杠杆对其他公司进行并购 leveraged relative value trades in equities; 依据相对价值策略对股票进行杠杆式投资 and leveraged convergence trades and other exotic trades in all kinds of securities and derivatives. 杠杆式趋同交易,以及对各种债券和衍生品的独特交易策略
芒格认为选型1对于目前征聊进行非杠杆式股票投资的普通基金而言是一种更为明智的选择;至于选项3也就是通过有限责任合伙制(各式私募基金)进行投资,基本不在这次演讲的范围之内。芒格认为基金会需要按照选项2这么做:
more imitation of the investment practices of Berkshire Hathaway in maintaining marketable equity portfolios with virtually zero turnover and with only a very few stocks chosen.
传统观点认为,高度分散的投资是必须的。也就是不要把鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里。然而芒格对这种观点持怀疑态度。他的观点和建议是集中投资:
I think it can be a rational choice, in some situations, for a family or a foundation to remain ninety percent concentrated in one equity.
a more constructive choice at foundations is long-term investment concentration in a few domestic corporations that are wisely admired.
Vocabulary
In the talk, he attacks the accepted and practiced orthodoxy of his audience with sharp humor, though always without malice.
orthodoxy ['ɔrθə.dɑksi] n.
1. 正统观念;普遍接受的观点 an idea or view that is generally accepted
malice ['mælɪs] n.
1. 恶意;怨恨 a feeling of hatred for sb that causes a desire to harm them
the hedge fund 对冲基金
unleveraged investment 非杠杆式投资
equity portfolios 股票资产
Nobel laureate 诺贝尔奖得主