重点(Top highlight)
by Jean-Louis Gassée
通过让·路易斯·加塞(Jean-LouisGassée)
有些幻想太诱人了，无法放弃。 苹果高清电视机就是这样一种幻影。 现在，我们一直有关于增强现实苹果眼镜的传言。 深入研究用例和技术要求出人意料：护目镜。 (Some fantasies are too enticing to relinquish. The Apple HDTV set was one such phantom. Now we now have the insistent rumor of Augmented Reality Apple Glasses. Delving into use cases and technical requirements unearthed a surprise: Goggles.)
At the Ignition conference in November 2011, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster predicted the advent of an Apple TV set, not the small black puck we know, but a big HDTV device destined to grace living rooms and man caves. Year after year, conference after conference, the tech augur saw a large, smart device that would fulfill Steve Jobs’ ordainment:
在2011年11月的点火会议上，Piper Jaffray的分析师吉恩·芒斯特(Gene Munster)预言了苹果电视机的问世，而不是我们所知道的黑色小冰球，而是一种注定用于起居室和洞穴的大型高清电视设备。 年复一年，一次又一次的大会，技术预言家看到了一个大型的智能设备，可以满足乔布斯的命令：
Steve Jobs’ vision, outlined in his biography, was for a TV set with the simplest user experience and requiring no remote. Munster could see this bringing gaming, DVD, Internet and DVR together in one box.
史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs)在他的传记中概述的愿景是为用户体验最简单且不需要遥控器的电视机。 芒斯特(Munster)可以将游戏，DVD，互联网和DVR整合到一个盒子中。
Munster left his analyst perch in 2015 to found Loup Ventures, a research-driven venture capital firm. A Valley wag I have breakfast with thinks Mr Munster wants to keep the benefit of his bold predictions entirely to himself.
芒斯特(Munster)于2015年离开分析师职位，成立了研究驱动的风险投资公司Loup Ventures 。 我和一个吃过早饭的山谷摇摆人认为芒斯特先生想将他大胆的预言完全保留给自己。
The fantastic Apple Glass (click at your own risk) lacks a champion of Munster’s caliber, but the rumors have been around for at least five years and refuse to die. Much more than an unwieldy TV set, Virtual Reality (VR) or Mixed/Augmented Reality (AR) fit into Apple’s successful Wearables category, alongside the Apple Watch and AirPods. It’s natural and obvious, therefore it must happen.
出色的Apple Glass (点击后果自负)缺乏Munster的才能，但谣言已经存在至少五年了，并且拒绝死亡。 虚拟现实(VR)或混合/增强现实(AR)不仅是笨拙的电视机，而且与Apple Watch和AirPods一起，成为苹果成功的可穿戴设备类别。 这是自然而明显的，因此必须发生。
From there, scenarios flow: Reciting a script while giving a talk, reading a book on the plane, manipulating CAD drawings, and many more. These belong to the Augmented Reality genre and feel pleasant, realistic, almost unavoidable.
从那里开始，场景开始：在演讲的同时朗诵脚本，在飞机上读书，操纵CAD图等等。 这些属于增强现实类型，令人愉悦，逼真的，几乎是不可避免的。
But there are complications and considerations. We need to understand use cases and technical requirements and challenges.
但是有复杂性和考虑因素。 我们需要了解用例以及技术要求和挑战。
The simplest scenario is a head-up display (HUD), a function first offered in fighter pilot helmets and now in mid- to high-end cars. As I walk along Boulevard Saint-Germain in Paris, my Apple Glasses gives me a notification, a warning that I’m “Late for a Meeting” with a friend on the other side of the Seine. An arrow points to the nearest Métro station, a short itinerary and ETA appear. Siri dials my friend’s number, I mumble an apology, and I’m on my way.
最简单的情况是平视显示器(HUD)，该功能最初在战斗机飞行员头盔中提供，现在在中高端汽车中提供。 当我沿着巴黎的圣日耳曼大道走时，我的苹果眼镜给了我一个通知，警告我“正准备与塞纳河另一边的朋友开会”。 箭头指向最近的地铁站，短途行程和预计到达时间。 Siri拨打我朋友的电话，我喃喃道歉，我正在路上。
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the study that indicates that HUD is more of a distraction than a benefit, but the more important problem is social. Let’s recall the “glasshole” trouble that beset Google Glass. Put succinctly by Hooke Audio:
如果我不提一项研究表明HUD不仅仅是一种分散注意力而不是好处，那我会很失落，但更重要的问题是社会问题。 让我们回想一下困扰Google Glass的“玻璃坑”问题。 Hooke Audio简洁地说：
“It should now be clear to any tech company with dreams of getting into the camera-embedded wearables game that turning your face into a live video recorder comes with an inherent creep factor.”
“对于任何梦想进入嵌入相机的可穿戴设备游戏的科技公司来说，现在都应该清楚地知道，将您的脸变成实时录像机会带来固有的蠕变因素。”
Google Glass wearers agreed:
Google眼镜佩戴者同意：
“No one said anything to me, but the energy in the room was like, ‘Um … why are you wearing this thing?’
“没有人对我说什么，但是房间里的能量就像是：'嗯...你为什么穿这东西？'
A privacy-conscious company such as Apple is likely to proceed with great caution, either not incorporating a camera, limiting its use, or, at the very least, providing a clear indication when the camera is running. Full acceptance might take a long time. Who isn’t uncomfortable when someone places a smartphone on the table and records the conversation?
像Apple这样的注重隐私的公司可能会非常谨慎，要么不安装相机，限制其使用，要么至少在相机运行时提供清晰的指示。 完全接受可能需要很长时间。 当有人将智能手机放在桌子上并记录对话时，谁会感到不舒服？
On the other end of the scale we have Virtual Reality use cases where we’re isolated from the world outside and engaged in simulations: fighting, flying, rock-climbing, race-car driving, and other convincing hallucinations. Today, VR goggles are attached to beefy PCs that provides computational resources needed for a convincing simulation. The genre is well-known and well liked by gamers.
在规模的另一端，我们有虚拟现实用例，这些案例与外界隔绝，并进行了模拟：战斗，飞行，攀岩，赛车和其他令人信服的幻觉。 如今，VR护目镜已连接到功能强大的PC上，该PC提供了令人信服的仿真所需的计算资源。 这种类型是游戏玩家所熟知和喜爱的。
Combining both types of use cases in one set of Apple Glasses is a stretch because VR requires isolation from the world outside, something not easily achieved by the (almost) normal-looking set of AR Apple Glasses.
要将两种类型的用例结合在一组Apple Glasses中，这是很费力的，因为VR需要与外界隔离，这((几乎)正常外观的AR Apple Glasses组很难做到)。
Let’s turn to technical requirements.
让我们谈谈技术要求。
Schematically, we need sensors for head and body movements, AirPods or derivatives for audio, high-resolution projection, and the computing power to fuel the uses we contemplate. Although AR appears to require less computing power than full VR simulations, one must worry about the chip and battery, their size and weight. We can trust Johny Srouji and his team of silicon designers to improve the performance and power consumption of Apple iPhone processors, but one can hardly believe that a CPU + battery combo capable of convincing AR, let alone VR, would fit in an eyeglass frame in the near future.
从原理上讲，我们需要用于头部和身体运动的传感器，用于音频，高分辨率投影的AirPods或衍生产品，以及能够为我们预期用途加油的计算能力。 尽管AR似乎比完整的VR模拟需要更少的计算能力，但人们必须担心芯片和电池，它们的尺寸和重量。 我们可以相信Johny Srouji和他的硅设计师团队可以改善Apple iPhone处理器的性能和功耗，但是几乎没有人相信能够说服AR的CPU +电池组合(更不用说VR)可以放在眼镜架中了。不久的将来。
Even if the heavier portions of the computing tasks could be delegated to the iPhone in our pocket, much computing power (and battery capacity) would need to reside in the lens frame in order to provide movement sensing and graphic rendering. For perspective, this is much more complicated than an Apple Watch whose sensing, imaging, and battery life are still limited today.
即使可以将较重的计算任务委托给我们口袋中的iPhone，也需要在镜架中保留大量计算能力(和电池容量)以提供运动感测和图形渲染。 从角度来看，这比Apple Watch复杂得多，Apple Watch的传感，成像和电池寿命今天仍然受到限制。
When I started writing this note, I thought the Augmented Reality (AR) version of Apple Glasses was the more likely one to come to market — date unknown but distant because of the technical feats required and the social implications of an on-board camera. Nice to have, like many other products such as the putative but unrealistic Apple Car, but not on the horizon.
当我开始写这篇笔记时，我认为苹果眼镜的增强现实(AR)版本是更可能投放市场的-日期未知，但由于所需的技术成就和车载摄像头的社会影响而遥不可及。 与许多其他产品(如公认的但不切实际的Apple Car)一样，很高兴拥有，但不是在眼前。
I’ve since changed my mind. Head-enveloping goggles that rely on PC computing and battery power are more likely, if only because of the form factor affordances flowing from the already accepted size and weight of commercially available devices. Your iPhone may be involved, but only for ancillary functions such as communicating with the world outside.
从那以后我改变了主意。 依赖于PC的计算和电池电量头包络护目镜更容易，因为外形的如果只启示来自商用设备已经接受的尺寸和重量流动。 您的iPhone可能会涉及，但仅用于辅助功能，例如与外界通信。
“Apple Goggles” would accentuate the company’s involvement in gaming as currently seen in the decent but unremarkable Apple Arcade. If Apple could untether their Goggles from the gaming rig, one could imagine an exciting future for the Apple Arcade service and its game developers — plus another revenue stream for the company. Once the battery size challenge is dealt with, a powerful Apple Silicon chip can be harnessed to the sensing and imaging tasks required to provide first-rate and untethered hallucinations. A gaming rig that’s seemingly inside your head.
“ Apple Goggles”将凸显该公司在游戏方面的参与，正如目前在体面但不引人注目的Apple Arcade中所看到的那样。 如果苹果公司能够从游戏设备中解脱其风镜，那么人们可以想象，苹果Arcade服务及其游戏开发商的前景将令人振奋，再加上该公司的另一笔收入来源。 一旦解决了电池尺寸的难题，便可以利用功能强大的Apple Silicon芯片来完成提供一流且不受束缚的幻觉所需的传感和成像任务。 似乎在您脑海中的游戏装备。
In conclusion, I’ll once more tip my hat to Horace Dediu, analyst, historian and occasional poet of our tech world as he tweets:
最后，在鸣叫时，我将再次向我们的技术世界的分析师，历史学家和偶然诗人Horace Dediu致敬：
“Those who predict the future we call futurists. Those who know when the future will happen we call billionaires.”
“那些预测未来的人我们称为未来主义者。 那些知道未来何时会发生的人称为亿万富翁。”
We will not be bored.
我们不会感到无聊。
(As in the Boulevard Saint-Germain example above, if everything goes right next week, I hope to write from Paris, or deep in-country locations.)
(就像上面的林荫大道圣日耳曼的例子一样，如果下周一切顺利，我希望从巴黎或国内较远的地方写信。)
翻译自: https://mondaynote.com/the-fantastic-apple-glasses-again-648ebf24b3b2