principles 010

If I make any money from those trips, that’s just icing on the cake.

如果我能从这些旅行中赚到钱，那简直是锦上添花。

This wasn’t academic learning: People with practice in the business showed me how the agricultural processes worked, and I organized what they told me into models I used to map the interactions of those parts through time.

For example, by knowing how many cattle, chickens, and hogs were being fed, how much grain they ate, and how fast they gained weight, I could project both when and how much meat would come to market and when and how much corn and soymeal would be consumed. Likewise, by seeing how much acreage was planted with corn and soybeans in all the growing areas, doing regressions that showed how rainfall affected the yields in each of these areas, and applying weather forecasts and rainfall data, I could project the timing and quantity of corn and soybean production. To me it all looked like a beautiful machine with logical cause-effect relationships. By understanding these relationships, I could come up with decision rules (or principles) I could model.

想记录下这两段，任何东西的学习肯定是想通的，我们应该找到他们之间的principles，然后把这一principles运用在自己热爱的领域。

The most painful lesson that was repeatedly hammered home is that you can never be sure of anything: There are always risks out there that can hurt you badly, even in the seemingly safest bets, so it’s always best to assume you’re missing something.

这句话好深奥，hhh~