王文静GMAT专栏 ▏逻辑每日一题

Twelve years ago and again five years ago, there were extended periods when the Darfir Republic's currency, the pundra, was weak:  its value was unusually low relative to the world's most stable currencies.  Both times a weak pundra made Darfir's manufactured products a bargain on world markets, and Darfir's exports were up substantially.  Now some politicians are saying that, in order to cause another similarly sized increase in exports, the government should allow the pundra to become weak again.

Which of the following, if true, provides the government with the strongest grounds to doubt that the politicians' recommendation, if followed, will achieve its aim?

(A) Several of the politicians now recommending that the pundra be allowed to become weak made that same recommendation before each of the last two periods of currency weakness.

(B) After several decades of operating well below peak capacity, Darfir's manufacturing sector is now operating at near-peak levels.

(C) The economy of a country experiencing a rise in exports will become healthier only if the country's currency is strong or the rise in exports is significant.

(D) Those countries whose manufactured products compete with Darfir's on the world market all currently have stable currencies.

(E) A sharp improvement in the efficiency of Darfir's manufacturing plants would make Darfir's products a bargain on world markets even without any weakening of the pundra relative to other currencies.

逻辑链：再次贬值货币→获得出口增加的结果

求削弱

A.这些提贬值建议的人前两次也提了贬值建议了

B.该国的制造业生产最近处于峰值

C.经济在什么前提组合之下才是健康的

D.竞争国目前汇率稳定

E.增加生产效率可以提高该国产品的国际竞争力

先排除掉范围上无关的选项，A，跟谁提的这个建议没有关系；C, 只考虑出口增加，不关心经济是否健康；D，现在稳定不代表未来稳定，现在这个时间点跟逻辑链所谈的未来时间点不相关。不排除有人把D选项读成竞争国不会采取同样的干预汇率措施，那么这个信息就是相关但相反选项，可以加强原文逻辑，依然杀。

E选项这种常常会干扰到大家，原文说做X可以实现Y, 你说做Z也可以实现Y, 对原文真的可以构成削弱吗？两条路径可以都成立，互相不能削弱。

B选项相当不明显，推理过程是 制造生产已经处于峰值→没有多余的生产力→制造不出更多的产品→汇率降了也没有更多的产品可供出口。正确选项的成立常常需要补足中间的推理过程，大家不敢选，怕自己是脑补了，但是矮子里面拔将军，其他选项真的不能构成削弱。

B

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