演讲者：Stanford， Tina Seelig，educator
I've spent nearly two decades observing what makes people luckier than others and trying to help people increase their luck.You see, I teach entrepreneurship,and we all know that most new ventures fail,and innovators and entrepreneurs need all the luck they can get.
So what is luck?Luck is defined as success or failure apparently caused by chance.Apparently.That's the operative word.It looks like it's chance because we rarely see all the levers that come into play to make people lucky.But I've realized, by watching so long,that luck is rarely a lightning strike,isolated and dramatic.It's much more like the wind,blowing constantly.Sometimes it's calm,and sometimes it blows in gusts,and sometimes it comes from directions that you didn't even imagine.
So how do you catch the winds of luck?It's easy, but it's not obvious.So I'm going to share three things with you that you can do to build a sail to capture the winds of luck.The first thing you want to do is to change your relationship with yourself.Be willing to take small risks that get you out of your comfort zone.Now, when we're children,we do this all the time.We have to do this if we're going to learn how to walk or talk or ride a bike or even quantum mechanics. Right?We need to go from someone one week who doesn't ride a bike to, next week, someone who does.And this requires us to get out of our comfort zone and take some risks.The problem is, as we get older,we rarely do this.We sort of lock down the sense of who we areand don't stretch anymore.
Now, with my students,I spend a lot of time giving them encouragement to get out of their comfort zone and take some risks.How do I do this?Well, I start out by having them fill out a risk-o-meter.
(图片来源: bing.com)
Now, it's basically a fun thing we developed in our class where they map out what risks they're willing to take.And it becomes clear very quickly to them that risk-taking is not binary.There are intellectual risks and physical risks and financial risksandemotional risks and social risksand ethical risks and political risks.And once they do this, they compare their risk profiles with others,and they quickly realize that they're all really different.
I then encourage them to stretch,to take some risks that get them out of their comfort zone.For example, I might ask them to do an intellectual risk and try to tackle a problem they haven't tried before;or a social risk, talking to someone sitting next to them on the train;or an emotional risk,maybe telling someone they really care about how they feel.
I do this myself all the time.About a dozen years ago,I was on an airplane,early, early morning flight on my way to Ecuador.And normally, I would just put on my headphones and go to sleep, wake up, do some work,but I decided to take a little risk,and I started a conversation with the man sitting next to me.I introduced myself,and I learned that he was a publisher.Interesting.We ended up having a fascinating conversation.I learned all about the future of the publishing industry.So about three quarters of the way through the flight,I decided to take another risk,and I opened up my laptop and I shared with him a book proposalI put together for something I was doing in my class.And he was very polite, he read it,and he said, "You know what, Tina,this isn't right for us,but thank you so much for sharing."It's OK. That risk didn't work out.I shut my laptop.At the end of the flight,we exchanged contact information.
A couple of months later,I reached out to him,and I said, "Mark, would youlike to come to my class?I'm doing a projecton reinventing the book,the future of publishing."And he said, "Great. I'd love to come."So he came to my class.We had a great experience.
A few months later, I wrote to him again.This time, I sent hima bunch of video clips from another project my students had done.He was so intrigued by one of the projects the students had done,he thought there might be a book in it,and he wanted to meet those students.
I have to tell you,I was a little bit hurt.
(Laughter)
I mean, he wanted to do a book with my students and not with me,but OK, it's all right.So I invited him to come down,and he and his colleagues came to Stanford and met with the students,and afterwards, we had lunch together.And one of his editors said to me,"Hey, have you ever considered writing a book?"
I said, "Funny you should ask."And I pulled out the exact same proposal that I had showed his boss a year earlier.Within two weeks, I had a contract,and within two years, the book had sold over a million copies around the world.
(Applause)
Now, you might say,"Oh, you're so lucky."But of course I was lucky,but that luck resulted from a series of small risks I took,starting with saying hello.And anyone can do this,no matter where you are in your life,no matter where you are in the world --even if you think you're the most unlucky person,you can do this by taking little risks that get you out of your comfort zone.You start building a sail to capture luck.
The second thing you want to dois to change your relationship with other people.You need to understand that everyone who helps you on your journeyis playing a huge rolein getting you to your goals.And if you don't show appreciation,not only are you not closing the loop,but you're missing an opportunity.When someone does something for you,they're taking that time that they could be spendingon themselves or someone else,and you need to acknowledge what they're doing.
Now, I run three fellowship programs at Stanford,and they are very competitive to get into,and when I send out the lettersto those students who don't get in,I always know there are going to be people who are disappointed.Some of the people who are disappointeds end me notes, complaining.Some of them send notes saying what could I do to make myselfmore successful next time around?And every once in a while,someone sends me a note thanking me for the opportunity.
This happened about seven years ago.A young man named Briansent me a beautiful note saying,"I know I've been rejected from this program twice,but I want to thank youfor the opportunity.I learned so much through the process of applying."
I was so taken bythe graciousness of his message that I invited him to come and meet me.And we spent some time chatting and cooked up an ideafor an independent study project together.He was on the football team at Stanford,and he decided to do a projecton looking at leadership in that context.We got to know each other incredibly well through that quarter,and he took the project that he started working onin the independent study and turned it, ultimately,into a company called Play for Tomorrow,where he teaches kids from disadvantaged background show to, essentially,craft the lives they dream to live.
Now, the important thing about this storyis that we both ended up catchingthe winds of luck as a result of his thank-you note.But it was the windsthat we didn't expect in the first place.
Over the course of the last couple of years,I've come up withsome tactics for my own lifeto help me really foster appreciation.My favorite is that at the endof every single day,I look at my calendar and I review all the people I met with,and I send thank-you notes to every single person.It only takes a few minutes,but at the end of every day,I feel incredibly grateful and appreciative,and I promise youit has increased my luck.
So first, you need to take some risks and get out of your comfort zone.Second, you need to show appreciation.And third, you want to change your relationship with ideas.Most people look at new ideas that come there way and they judge them."That's a great idea"or "That's a terrible idea."But it's actually much more nuanced.Ideas are neither good or bad.And in fact, the seeds of terrible ideas are often something truly remarkable.
One of my favorite exercises in my classes on creativity is to help students foster an attitude of looking at terrible ideas through the lens of possibilities.So I give them a challenge:to create an idea for a brand new restaurant.They have to come up with the best ideas for a new restaurant and the worst ideas for a new restaurant.So the best ideas are things likea restaurant on a mountaintop with a beautiful sunset,or a restaurant on a boat with a gorgeous view.And the terrible ideas are things likea restaurant in a garbage dump,or a restaurant with terrible service that's really dirty,or a restaurant that serves cockroach sushi.
(Laughter)
So they hand all the ideas to me,I read the great ideas out loud,and then I rip them upand throw them away.I then take the horrible ideas and redistribute them.Each team now has an idea that another team thought was horrible,and their challenge is to turn it into something brilliant.
Here's what happens.Within about 10 seconds, someone says,"This is a fabulous idea."And they have about three minutes before they pitch the idea to the class.So the restaurant in the garbage dump?What does that turn into?Well, they collect all the extra food from Michelin star restaurants that was going to get thrown out,and they have another restaurantat a much lower price,with all the leftovers.Pretty cool?Or the restaurant that's dirty with terrible service?for future restauranteurs to figure out how to avoid all the pitfalls.And the restaurant with cockroach sushi?It turns into a sushi bar with all sorts of really interesting and exotic ingredients.
If you look around at the companies,the ventures that are really innovative around you,the ones that we now take for granted that have changed our life,well, you know what?They all started out as crazy ideas.They started ideas that when they pitched to other people,most people said, "That's crazy,it will never work."
So, yes, sometimes people were born into terrible circumstances,and sometimes, luck is a lightning bolt that hits us with something wonderful or something terrible.But the winds of luck are always there,and if you're willing to take some risks,if you're willing to really go out and show appreciation and willing to really look at ideas,even if they're crazy,through the lens of possibilities,you can build a bigger and bigger sailto catch the winds of luck.
Thank you.
(Applause)
Title: 承担风险，方能提升运气
Description:运气很少像闪电那样, 孤立和戏剧性（地来临）——它更像风, 一直不断地吹。捕捉更多运气很容易, 但并非人人皆知。在这一精辟的演讲中, 斯坦福理工学院教授缇娜·丝丽格分享了三种意想不到的方法，来提升你的运气—— 以及你看到和抓住机会的能力。
Subtitles:
我花了近二十年的时间，观察是什么使有些人比他人更幸运，并试图帮助人们提升运气。我负责讲授企业运作，大家都知道，多数新企业均以失败告终，创新者和企业家需要所有可以得到的运气。
那么，运气是什么呢？运气，被定义为显然由偶然原因导致的成功或失败。‘’显然‘’，是其中的关键词。看起来运气具有偶然性，是因为我们极少看到所有的因素同时作用而产生好运。但通过长期的观察，我发现，运气很少像闪电那样，孤立而戏剧性地降临。它更像风，不断地吹，有时静止不动，有时，则阵阵袭来，有时，它会从你根本想不到的方向吹来。
那么，如何捕捉幸运之风呢？做起来很简单，却并非人人知晓其中的奥妙。所以，我要分享三件你们可以做到的事情，去创建一面风帆，以捕捉幸运之风。你要做的第一件事，就是改变你与自己的关系，去承担小小的风险，走出自己的舒适区，这是我们儿时常做的事。如果要学走路、学说话、学骑自行车、甚至量子力学，就必须走出舒适区。我们必须经历这周还不会骑自行车呢，下周就会骑的过程。这需要我们走出舒适区，并承担一些风险。问题是，随着年龄的增长，我们就很少这样做了。我们变得喜欢固步自封，不再拓展自己的能力。
对于我的学生，我花了很多时间鼓励他们走出舒适区，并承担一些风险。我怎么做的呢？我先让他们填写风险承受表，这其实就是我们在课堂开展的一项有趣的活动，让他们标出愿意承担的风险。他们很快就会明白，承担风险可不是非零即一那么简单，有智力风险、物理风险、金融风险、情感风险、社会风险、道德风险和政治风险。一旦确定自己肯承担的风险后， 他们会将风险表与他人的比较，然后很快就意识到，大家的风险表竟然截然不同。
然后我鼓励他们挑战一下，承担一些风险，使自己走出舒适区。例如，我可能会要求他们冒一下智力风险，设法解决一个他们以前从没尝试过的问题；或社会风险，在火车上与邻座的旅客交谈；或者是情绪上的风险，比如告诉真正在乎的人自己对他们的感受。
我自己一直这样做。大约 12 年前，我在很早的一班去往厄瓜多尔的飞机上。通常情况下，我会戴上耳机，先睡一觉，睡醒再工作一会儿，但我决定冒点儿风险，我开始和旁边的人聊天。我介绍了自己，随后得知他是一个出版商。还真是巧啊。由此我们有了一段精彩的谈话，我了解到了出版业的未来。因此，当飞行旅程进行到大约四分之三时，我决定再冒一次险，我打开笔记本电脑，和他分享我整理的一本书的提案，这些东西是我上课使用的。他很有礼貌，读完以后，他说， “知道吗，蒂娜，我们这样做不太合适，但是，很感谢你的分享”。这次冒险没有成功，不过没关系。我关上了笔记本电脑。在飞行结束时, 我们互留了联系方式。
几个月后，我又联系他，说："马克，你愿意来我的课堂吗？我在做一个有关‘重塑书本’的项目，有关出版业的未来。”他说："好极了。我很乐意去。”所以他来到我的课堂，我们相处得非常愉快。
几个月后，我又写信给他，这次，我发给他一组视频剪辑，这些剪辑来自学生们做的另一个项目。学生们做的项目中， 有一个引起了他极大的兴趣，他认为可以出一本相关的书，而且，他想面见那些学生。
实话说，我有点小小的受伤。
(笑声)
我是说，他想和我的学生们出版一本书，而不是和我，不过，没啥大不了。因此我邀请他过来，他和同事们来到斯坦福，和同学们见了面，随后我们共进了午餐。他的一位编辑问我，“嘿，你有没有想过要写一本书啊？”
我说，“你问得真巧，”于是我拿出一本书的提案给他，就是一年前给他老板看的那本。两周内，我们就签了合同，两年内，这本书在全球销售了超过一百万本。
（掌声）
现在，你可能会说，“噢，你太幸运了。”当然，我是幸运的呀，但幸运来自我承担的一系列小风险，而这一切，都是从打招呼开始的。谁都能做到这一点，无论你在人生的哪个阶段，无论你身在何处，即使你认为自己是最倒霉的人，也可以通过承担小风险，把自己带出舒适区，开始打造那一叶捕捉好运的帆。
第二件要做的事情，就是改善与他人的关系。要明白，每个在旅途中帮助过你的人，在你实现目标的过程中，都起了非常重要作用。若你没有心怀感激之情，这不仅仅是你没与他们互动交流的问题，而是让你错过了一次机会。当有人为你做某件事时，他们把本可以花在自己或别人身上的时间花在了你身上，你要对他们的行为表示感谢。
目前，我管理着斯坦福的三个奖学金项目，这三个项目的竞争都很激烈，当我寄信给那些没有入围的学生时，我知道有人会很失望。有些失望的人给我写信，抱怨。有的人写信问我，自己该如何做，才能让自己下次更成功？时不时地，也有人写信来，感谢我给他们的机会。
有一件大概七年前发生的事，一个叫布莱恩的年轻人给我寄来一封感人的信，他说：“我已经被该项目拒绝了两次，但我很想感谢您给的机会，在申请奖学金的过程中，我学到了很多东西。”
他信中的感恩话语极大地触动了我，因此，我邀请他来见我。我们一起聊了一会儿，共同想出了一个"自主学习项目"的主意。他当时是斯坦福的足球队成员，他决定做一个这方面关于领导力的项目。那半个学期里，我们很好地了解了彼此，他拿到了自己着手准备的“自主学习项目"，最终，把它变成了一个叫做 "为明天而战" 的公司，在那里，他教那些家庭状况不佳的孩子们， 如何从根本上精心规划他们梦想的生活。
这个故事的重点是，我俩都抓住了幸运之风，一切都源于他的感谢信，这是我们俩起初根本预料不到的。
在过去的几年里，我为自己的生活制定了一些策略，来帮助我真正地培养感激之心。我最喜欢在每天晚上，看着日历，回想所有我（今天）见过的人，并给每个人发一封感谢信、只需要几分钟的时间，但在每一天的结束时，我都感到特别感恩和感激，我向各位担保，这个过程增加了我的好运。
因此，首先你需要冒一下险，走出你的舒适区。其次，你需要心怀感激。第三，你需要改变与想法的关系。大多数的人会面对新想法，并对其进行评判，"这是一个很好的主意 " 或 "这个想法很糟糕"。但这个过程实际上很微妙。主意并没有好坏之分。事实上，糟糕的想法产生的结果往往才是真正了不起的东西。
在课堂上，我最喜欢的关于创新的练习之一，是帮助学生培养一种以可能性的视角来看待糟糕想法的态度。所以，我给了他们一个挑战：为一家全新的餐厅想点子。他们必须为新餐馆想出金点子和最坏的点子。金点子，如欣赏美丽日落的山顶餐厅，或能观赏靓丽景色的船上餐厅；糟糕的点子，如建在垃圾堆里的餐馆，或一家服务差、环境脏的餐馆，或是一家供应蟑螂寿司的餐馆。
（笑声）
他们把所有的点子交给我，我大声读出那些金点子，然后把它们撕毁、扔掉；接下来，我把糟糕的点子重新分配给他们。现在，每个队都有一个另一队认为很糟糕的点子，他们的挑战就是让这些点子化腐朽为神奇。
接下来，奇妙的事情发生了：在大约10秒内，有人说，"这真是个绝妙的主意。"他们约有三分钟的准备时间，然后向全班兜售他们的点子。那个垃圾堆里的餐馆会变成什么呢？他们从米其林星级餐厅收集那些将被白白扔掉的多余食物，他们还有另一家价格更低的餐馆，供应的都是剩饭。棒不棒？那服务不好、环境肮脏的餐厅呢？它变成了一家餐厅训练场，供未来餐厅老板找出如何避免所有的隐患。卖蟑螂寿司的餐厅呢？它变成了一个寿司酒吧，里面融入了各种真正有趣而富有异国情调的元素。
如果你环顾四周的公司，你周围那些真正创新的企业，那些我们坦然接受的改变我们生活的公司和企业，噢，你知道吗？他们都是从疯狂的想法开始的。在向其他人推销时，他们就开始实施想法了，多数人说"这太离谱了,根本行不通的。”
是的，有时人们出生在糟糕的环境中，有时，运气像一道闪电，用奇妙或可怕的东西击中我们。但幸运之风总是在那里，如果你愿意承担一些风险，如果你愿意真正走出去，并心怀感激之情，愿意真正去正视各种想法， 即使这些想法很疯狂，通过可能性的视角，你仍然可以打造一面更大的帆，去捕捉幸运之风。
谢谢！
（掌声）