Is Gold The Right Recipe For Disaster?
世界经济前景是否暗淡一片，足以让黄金继续光芒万丈？引人注目的是，黄金价格自今年4月迄今已上涨12%，而这段时间金融崩溃的担忧似乎已经消退，投资者们纷纷杀回风险更高的资产。黄金仍能保持良好的势头，表明对这种在最糟糕的情况下可能脱颍而出的资产仍存在需求。但经历了艰难的经济最终出路并非全都一样。在投资者决定黄金（而非国债）是否是最好的避险投资时，他们应当记住这一点。国债有几大优势。它们能产生收入流，而黄金则不会。同时，虽然说一旦经济在低通胀情况下强劲复苏会对国债形成冲击，但黄金也同样会受到打击。其次，去年年底人人都担惊受怕时，国债的表现实际上好于黄金。美林(Merrill Lynch)十年期国债价格指数从去年9月到年底跃升11.6%。在此期间纽约商交所(Comex)黄金价格上涨6.6%，而在崩溃最严重时，黄金出现抛售。最后一个事实表明，当市场正常运转时（比如现在），黄金会带来好处，但当市场崩溃时，黄金也与其他资产一样会下跌。换句话说，要是像日本那种情形，国债就可能超过黄金，即通缩推高实际收益率，但又没有高到给金融系统和整体经济造成严重压力。但欧美央行的做法对黄金价格走势有利，尤其是美联储(Fed)，后者仍在印行大量美元支撑重点市场。这使得通胀前景不定，从而对黄金有利，而不利于美元等货币。看来美联储还会继续印行美元。上周末二十国集团(G20)就表示，央行对流动性的支持还需要保持一段时间。这种支持可能长期存在的一个领域是美国房市。据行业出版物Inside Mortgage Finance，目前，不符合资格的住房贷款在私营领域几乎没有需求，今年新发放的贷款至多有85%由美国政府实际上或明确提供担保就说明了这一点。接下来，美联储买进了80%的打包成证券的政府担保抵押贷款。如果美联储收手，房价可能再度滑坡，引发更多止赎，银行也会承受更多损失。最后，财政赤字飙升对黄金有利。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计，七大工业国(G7)成员国今年财政赤字总计将相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的10.36%，比1990-1991年衰退后的水平高出一倍有余。没错，要确定财政末日何时出现是不可能的。日本政府借贷在过去20年中极度膨胀，但日圆仍然坚挺。但大多数发达国家的政府财政状况目前都在恶化。对于悲观主义者来说，如果我们会遭遇日本式的通缩，那就买国债。而要是其他的灾难性状况，就应该买黄金。Peter Eavis相关阅读市场对金价反弹持续多久意见不一 2009-09-09中国可能成为世界最大黄金消费国 2009-08-19黄金与股市同床异梦 2009-08-13 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年09月09日13:57', 'CBY'));Cadbury PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：CBYdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年09月09日13:57', 'KFT'));卡夫食品英文名称：Kraft Foods Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：KFTdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年09月09日13:57', 'CSTR'));Coinstar Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：CSTRdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年09月09日13:57', 'CBRY.LN'));吉百利食品有限公司英文名称：Cadbury PLC总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：CBRY
Is the outlook for the world economy dark enough for gold to continue to glitter?Remarkably, the gold price has appreciated 12% since April, a period during which financial-meltdown fears appear to have receded and investors have rushed back into riskier assets. Gold's resilience suggests continuing demand for an asset that could outperform in worst-case scenarios.But not every difficult economic outcome is the same. That is something investors need to remember as they decide whether gold -- rather than Treasurys -- really is the best disaster hedge.Treasurys start with several advantages. They produce an income stream, whereas gold doesn't. And, although Treasurys would be hit if there is a strong economic rebound with low inflation, gold would likely be hammered.Next, Treasurys actually did better than gold in the fear-drenched period at the end of last year. The Merrill Lynch price index for the 10-year Treasury jumped 11.6% from September through the end of 2008. The Comex gold price was up 6.6% over the same period, and it sold off sharply in the middle of the meltdown. That last fact suggests gold benefits when markets are functioning -- like now -- but the metal, like other assets, can fall when markets close down.In other words, Treasurys could trump gold in a Japan-like environment, where deflation pushes up real yields but isn't high enough to cause serious stress on the financial system and the wider economy.But gold has a big friend in Western central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, which is still printing enormous amounts of dollars to support key markets. This makes the inflation outlook uncertain, helping gold and hurting currencies like the dollar.The printing looks set to continue. Ominously, this weekend, the G-20 said central-bank liquidity support 'will need to remain in place for some time.'One area where that support could stay in place for a long time is for the U.S. housing market. Right now, there is almost no private-sector demand for nonconforming residential mortgages, reflected in the fact that the U.S. government has effectively or explicitly guaranteed as much as 85% of all mortgages originated this year, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. In turn, the Fed is buying nearly 80% of government-backed mortgages packaged in securities. If it pulls back, house prices could resume their slide, triggering more foreclosures and losses for banks.Finally, soaring fiscal deficits favor gold. The IMF expects G-7 countries to show a combined fiscal deficit equivalent to 10.36% of GDP this year, more than double the level following the 1990-91 recession. True, it is impossible to time a fiscal Armageddon bet. The yen has stayed strong even as Japanese government borrowing has exploded over the past 20 years.But government finances are now deteriorating in most developed countries.For pessimists, if we're in for a Japanese-style deflationary bust, buy Treasurys. For other disaster scenarios, go for gold.Peter Eavis
Is the outlook for the world economy dark enough for gold to continue to glitter?Remarkably, the gold price has appreciated 12% since April, a period during which financial-meltdown fears appear to have receded and investors have rushed back into riskier assets. Gold's resilience suggests continuing demand for an asset that could outperform in worst-case scenarios.But not every difficult economic outcome is the same. That is something investors need to remember as they decide whether gold -- rather than Treasurys -- really is the best disaster hedge.Treasurys start with several advantages. They produce an income stream, whereas gold doesn't. And, although Treasurys would be hit if there is a strong economic rebound with low inflation, gold would likely be hammered.Next, Treasurys actually did better than gold in the fear-drenched period at the end of last year. The Merrill Lynch price index for the 10-year Treasury jumped 11.6% from September through the end of 2008. The Comex gold price was up 6.6% over the same period, and it sold off sharply in the middle of the meltdown. That last fact suggests gold benefits when markets are functioning -- like now -- but the metal, like other assets, can fall when markets close down.In other words, Treasurys could trump gold in a Japan-like environment, where deflation pushes up real yields but isn't high enough to cause serious stress on the financial system and the wider economy.But gold has a big friend in Western central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, which is still printing enormous amounts of dollars to support key markets. This makes the inflation outlook uncertain, helping gold and hurting currencies like the dollar.The printing looks set to continue. Ominously, this weekend, the G-20 said central-bank liquidity support 'will need to remain in place for some time.'One area where that support could stay in place for a long time is for the U.S. housing market. Right now, there is almost no private-sector demand for nonconforming residential mortgages, reflected in the fact that the U.S. government has effectively or explicitly guaranteed as much as 85% of all mortgages originated this year, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. In turn, the Fed is buying nearly 80% of government-backed mortgages packaged in securities. If it pulls back, house prices could resume their slide, triggering more foreclosures and losses for banks.Finally, soaring fiscal deficits favor gold. The IMF expects G-7 countries to show a combined fiscal deficit equivalent to 10.36% of GDP this year, more than double the level following the 1990-91 recession. True, it is impossible to time a fiscal Armageddon bet. The yen has stayed strong even as Japanese government borrowing has exploded over the past 20 years.But government finances are now deteriorating in most developed countries.For pessimists, if we're in for a Japanese-style deflationary bust, buy Treasurys. For other disaster scenarios, go for gold.Peter Eavis