Who Will Bid Next For Cadbury?

吉百利食品有限公司(Cadbury)拒绝卡夫食品(Kraft Foods) 167.3亿美元的收购要约可能在集中度很低但整合时机早就成熟的糖果业掀起一场并购大战。最明显的竞购者是好时食品(Hershey)和雀巢公司(Nestle)，它们可以联合起来竞购吉百利，或是单独收购。Bloomberg NewsShore Capital分析师舍利(Darren Shirley)在周一上午的研究报告中称，我们猜测很快就会有竞购出现，至少也会把水搅浑，提高卡夫食品的报价。任何其它报价中的现金部分将是关键所在，如果股票作为报价的一部分，协同效应和战略潜力也会发挥作用。卡夫说，与吉百利的合并每年将节约6.25亿美元成本。不过，这个报价没有得到吉百利的接受，后者称出价“大大低估了”这家英国糖果公司的价值。或许这在某种程度上是由于60%的收购费用将以卡夫股票支付的事实。卡夫食品的股票已较上年同期下跌了17%。因此，分析师说任何新的竞购可能都需要诱之以更高的现金。在可能感兴趣的各方中，雀巢或许会对看好吉百利的口香糖业务，这项业务在拉美和东欧分别排在第一位和第二位，而在英国的反垄断问题可能会阻止收购整个糖果业务的企图。雀巢和吉百利在英国市场的份额名列前茅。分析师说，好时食品可能锺情于巧克力和糖果品牌。这家宾夕法尼亚州的巧克力生产商基本没有海外业务，而伦敦的吉百利在美国没有直接拥有巧克力品牌。在2008年4月Mars以220亿美元收购箭牌(Wrigley)后不久，这两家公司曾进行过商谈，但是，会谈因信贷危机和好时对吉百利的饮料业务不感兴趣而陷入僵局。不过，吉百利后来将Dr. Pepper等饮料业务分拆成了独立的公司。另一个可能的投标者是百事可乐(Pepsi)，分析师称，该公司正在寻求通过糖果和口香糖业务扩大休闲食品和饮料业务。Mars也可能希望进一步进入到新兴市场中，它通过收购箭牌已成为世界上最大的糖果公司。收购吉百利将使Mars扩大在墨西哥印度俄罗斯和印尼等国的业务。Michael Corkery（“并购看台”实时报导影响华尔街格局的交易和交易撮合人，包括并购融资私人资本运营和破产。）相关阅读卡夫食品CEO：卡夫食品将坚持做遵守规则的收购方 2009-09-07雀巢CEO：对收购持开放态度；不对卡夫与吉百利间的交易置评 2009-09-07吉百利以低估公司价值和前景为由拒绝了卡夫食品的收购提议 2009-09-07卡夫食品167.3亿美元求购吉百利遭拒 2009-09-07 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年09月08日09:58', 'KFT'));卡夫食品英文名称：Kraft Foods Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：KFTdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年09月08日09:58', 'HSY'));好时食品英文名称：Hershey Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：HSYdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年09月08日09:58', 'CBY'));Cadbury PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：CBYdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年09月08日09:58', 'PEP'));百事公司英文名称：PepsiCo Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：PEPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年09月08日09:58', 'CBRY.LN'));吉百利食品有限公司英文名称：Cadbury PLC总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：CBRYdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年09月08日09:58', 'NSRGY'));Nestle S.A. (ADS)总部地点：瑞士(Switzerland)上市地点：美国场外交易粉单市场(Pink Sheet)股票代码：NSRGYdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年09月08日09:58', 'NESN.VX'));Nestle S.A.总部地点：瑞士(Switzerland)上市地点：VTX股票代码：NESN


Cadbury's rejection of Kraft's $16.73 billion offer could spark a bidding war in the fragmented confectionery industry that has long been ripe for consolidation.The most obvious bidders are Hershey and Nestle, which could combine forces to make a counter bid for Cadbury or bid separately.'We suspect a counterbid may soon be on the way, if not at least to muddy the waters and raise the price for Kraft,' wrote Shore Capital analyst Darren Shirley in a research note Monday morning. 'The cash element of any alternative bid would be of key interest, as would the synergistic and strategic potential if equity were proposed as part of the offer.'Kraft says a combination with Cadbury would achieve $625 million in cost savings annually. Still, the offer isn't flying with Cadbury, which said the bid 'fundamentally undervalues' the U.K. confectioner. Perhaps that reflected in part the fact that 60% of the purchase price was to be paid in Kraft stock, which is down 17% from a year earning.As a result, analysts say any new bid would need to be sweetened with more cash.Of the potentially interested parties, Nestle would be likely be interested in Cadbury's gum business, which is No. 1 in Latin America and No. 2 in Eastern Europe, as antitrust issues in the U.K., where both Nestle and Cadbury sell a lot of candy, might prevent a bid for the whole confectionery business.Hershey could make a run for the chocolate and confectionery brands, analysts say. The Pennsylvania chocolatier has little presence overseas, while London's Cadbury doesn't directly own chocolate brands in the U.S. The two have talked before, shortly after Mars bought Wrigley for $22 billion in April 2008. but the talks were chilled by the credit crisis and by Hershey's disinterest in Cadbury's beverage business. But Cadbury has since spun off its beverage business, which includes Dr. Pepper, into a separate company.Another possible bidder is Pepsi, which analysts say is looking to augment its snacks and beverage business with a candy and gum business. Mars, which became the world's largest confectioner through its acquisition of Wrigley, also may want to expand further by reaching into emerging markets. A purchase of Cadbury would give Mars a larger presence in countries such as Mexico, India, Russia and Indonesia.Michael Corkery