No Escape From China For Rio
中国在力拓(Rio Tinto Group)股东们心中的分量很重。但是否足够重呢？力拓将部分业务作价195亿美元出售给中国国有控股企业中国铝业公司(Aluminum Corp.)的交易一直广受争议，力拓股东对这桩交易的支持从来说不上坚定，最近更是出现了减弱。人们越来越觉得，力拓或许有能力自筹资金恢复财务健康。其竞争对手必和必拓(BHP Billiton)已通过发行债券筹集了约90亿美元。英国银行汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings)本周通过配股募集了186亿美元资金。从宣布与中铝公司达成资产出售协议到上周末，力拓在伦敦上市的股票已上涨了27%。但这离不开中国因素的推动。采矿类股自2月份以来的反弹一直受到大宗商品价格回升的推动，而这种回升几乎完全拜中国所赐。麦格理银行(Macquarie Bank)估计，中国在多种原材料的市场需求中所占份额已经从2008年时平均30%至35%的水平提高到今年第一季度的将近50%。而海上运输的铁矿石可能有80%卖到了中国。力拓2008年89%的营业利润来自铁矿石出口。中国一直在趁大宗商品价格低廉之际大举进货。如果这无法导致中国大宗商品消费量的持续增长，这类商品的市场价格将会下降，力拓的股价预计也会随之走低，而这将使增资扩股对现有股东权益产生更大稀释作用。汇丰成功的配股固然令人鼓舞，但这也会减少其后继者可吸引的资金。Dealogic提供的数据显示，自2008年初以来，英国公司通过增发新股共募集资金1,015亿美元，比此前三年的总和还多。如果澳大利亚批准了力拓与中铝公司的交易，恐怕到今年夏天力拓股东对这桩交易进行表决时，力拓作为这项交易替代方案的“B计划”在股东们眼中的吸引力就会大为逊色了。Liam Denning相关阅读澳国库部长：对中国收购力拓持开放态度 2009-03-27力拓CFO：中铝的投资对力拓“完全有利” 2009-03-26中铝增持力拓交易获澳反垄断机构批准 2009-03-25力拓任命新董事长 致力于与中铝的合作 2009-03-18 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月08日10:24', '601600.SH'));中国铝业股份有限公司（简称：中国铝业）英文名称：Aluminum Co. of China Ltd.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：上海证交所股票代码：601600document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月08日10:24', '2600.HK'));中国铝业股份有限公司英文名称：Aluminum Co. of China Ltd.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：香港交易所股票代码：2600document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月08日10:24', 'ACH'));中国铝业股份有限公司英文名称：Aluminum Co. of China Ltd. (ADS)总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：ACHdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月08日10:24', 'RTP'));力拓股份有限公司英文名称：Rio Tinto PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：RTPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月08日10:24', 'RIO.AU'));Rio Tinto Ltd.总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月08日10:24', 'RIO.LN'));力拓股份有限公司英文名称：Rio Tinto Plc总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：RIO
China weighs heavily on the minds of Rio Tinto Group's shareholders. But does it weigh heavily enough?Support for Rio's controversial deal to sell parts of itself to state-controlled Aluminum Corp. of China, or Chinalco, for $19.5 billion, never solid, has ebbed recently.There is a growing sense that, alternatively, Rio might be able to raise enough cash itself to repair its finances. Rival BHP Billiton has tapped bond markets for about $9 billion. British bank HSBC Holdings this week raised $18.6 billion in a rights issue. By the end of last week, Rio's London-listed shares had risen 27% since the Chinalco deal was announced.Still, there is no escaping China. The bounce in mining stocks since February has been underpinned by the commodities rally -- which rests almost wholly on China's shoulders. Macquarie Bank estimates China's share of demand for various raw materials has increased from an average of between 30% and 35% in 2008 to as much as half in the first quarter. Its share of the seaborne iron-ore market -- where Rio earned 89% of its 2008 operating profit -- could be 80%.China has been restocking at low prices. If that doesn't lead to sustained consumption, commodities prices will fade -- and Rio's shares likely will follow, making any equity issue more dilutive. HSBC's success is encouraging, but it also drains capacity for imitators. Since the start of 2008, U.K. companies have raised $101.5 billion in follow-on offerings, according to Dealogic -- more than in the previous three years combined.Provided Australia approves the Chinalco deal, by the time shareholders vote on it this summer, 'Plan B' may well look much less appealing.Liam Denning
China weighs heavily on the minds of Rio Tinto Group's shareholders. But does it weigh heavily enough?Support for Rio's controversial deal to sell parts of itself to state-controlled Aluminum Corp. of China, or Chinalco, for $19.5 billion, never solid, has ebbed recently.There is a growing sense that, alternatively, Rio might be able to raise enough cash itself to repair its finances. Rival BHP Billiton has tapped bond markets for about $9 billion. British bank HSBC Holdings this week raised $18.6 billion in a rights issue. By the end of last week, Rio's London-listed shares had risen 27% since the Chinalco deal was announced.Still, there is no escaping China. The bounce in mining stocks since February has been underpinned by the commodities rally -- which rests almost wholly on China's shoulders. Macquarie Bank estimates China's share of demand for various raw materials has increased from an average of between 30% and 35% in 2008 to as much as half in the first quarter. Its share of the seaborne iron-ore market -- where Rio earned 89% of its 2008 operating profit -- could be 80%.China has been restocking at low prices. If that doesn't lead to sustained consumption, commodities prices will fade -- and Rio's shares likely will follow, making any equity issue more dilutive. HSBC's success is encouraging, but it also drains capacity for imitators. Since the start of 2008, U.K. companies have raised $101.5 billion in follow-on offerings, according to Dealogic -- more than in the previous three years combined.Provided Australia approves the Chinalco deal, by the time shareholders vote on it this summer, 'Plan B' may well look much less appealing.Liam Denning