Inflation Signs Will Likely Be a Mirage

通货紧缩担忧情绪有些过虑了？美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)周四公布，1月份用于衡量通胀的指标生产价格指数令人吃惊地大幅上升，这个疑问随即浮出了水面。此外，原油期货价格当日暴涨14%似乎令这个问题变得更为紧迫。这一疑虑周五仍将持续，届时劳工统计局将公布1月份消费价格指数。经济学家认为，受能源价格回升影响，当月消费者价格指数可能会上升0.2%，部分扭转去年12月显著下滑的势头。他们预计，1月不包括食品和能源价格的核心消费价格指数可能会增长0.1%。然而，任何有关通胀率回升的迹象可能都带有迷惑性。一些经济学家表示，劳工统计局并没有根据今年年初许多行业进行的涨价举动对通货膨胀指数进行适当调整。举例来说，摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)经济学家雷哈特(Abiel Reinhart)指出，2003年以来每年1月份的核心生产者价格指数通常都会显著高于前后两个月。劳工统计局否认了这一说法；表示其很清楚新年的涨价情况，并对数据进行了相应调整。不管怎么说，目前通货紧缩的风险仍然大于通货膨胀。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)经济学家格林洛(David Greenlaw)预计，1月份核心消费者价格指数升幅会大于调查预期，但他仍然认为该指数较上年同期升幅会回落到2004年以来的最低水平1.6%。美国政府正在向经济注入大量资金，是反对通胀的人不安。但这些资金的周转率──名义经济增速除以货币供应量──已经跌到了1991年以来的低点。政府资金正在取代陷入休眠的私人需求。如果没有这个因素，以价格持续下滑为特症的通货紧缩就可能出现。但如果经济没有持续好转，通货紧缩迟早还是会到来。Mark Gongloff相关阅读Fed官员Lockhart：认为出现通货紧缩的风险并不大 2009-02-20Fed贝南克：Fed将尽其所能恢复经济增长 2009-02-19Fed官员Evans：美国经济面临通货膨胀下降风险，并非通货紧缩 2009-02-19Fed官员Pianalto对通货膨胀放缓感到担忧 2009-02-18亚洲通胀压力缓解增大央行降息空间 2009-02-0312月份OECD通货膨胀率降至纪录低点 2009-02-03


Are deflation worries overdone?That question was raised Thursday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a surprisingly large increase in its producer-price index, which measures wholesale inflation, in January. Separately, a 14% one-day jump in crude-oil futures seemed to make the topic more urgent.Such speculation could continue Friday when the BLS releases of the January consumer-price index. Economists think CPI rose 0.2%, partially reversing December's deep swoon as energy prices rebounded. They think 'core' CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, rose 0.1%.But any hints of an inflation revival are probably deceiving. Some economists say the BLS isn't properly adjusting its inflation indexes for price increases enacted by many industries early in the calendar year. Since 2003, for example, the January core PPI report is usually significantly higher than the two months before and after it, according to J.P. Morgan Chase economist Abiel Reinhart.The BLS disagrees with that charge, saying it is well aware of new-year price increases and adjusts its numbers accordingly.In any event, deflation is still a bigger risk than inflation. Morgan Stanley economist David Greenlaw expects a bigger gain in core CPI than the consensus, but still thinks its year-over-year growth rate will fall to 1.6%, the lowest since 2004.The government is flooding the system with money, putting inflation hawks on edge. But the velocity of that money -- the rate at which money is spent, as measured by nominal economic growth divided by money supply -- has fallen to its lowest level since 1991.Government cash is replacing hibernating private demand. Without it, deflation, a sustained price decrease that poisons many investments, could set in. Without sustained economic improvement, it might set in anyway.Mark Gongloff