Citic Pacific's Hole Grows
中信泰富(Citic Pacific)的外汇对冲丑闻尚未过去，股东们现在又开始担心起其它问题：公司所有主营业务的周期性下跌和负债的增加。中信泰富说，在警方对导致公司损失近20亿美元的重大失误进行调查后，主席荣智健和董事总经理范鸿龄已经辞职。这笔亏损是由未经授权的外汇投机交易遭遇失败造成的。这是一个迟到了很久的结果：在建立这些头寸时荣智健是公司的掌门人，因此责任最终也要由他来负。当时对亏损的担忧因主要股东──中国国有企业中信集团(Citic Group)去年的注资而得到了缓解。但即使没有这个黑洞，中信泰富的情况也不好。不包括去年衍生品投资的亏损，2008年中信泰富的收益下降了81%。在中信泰富的所有主营业务领域──矿业房地产航空和发电，近期的前景都依然暗淡。定于今年开工的澳大利亚铁矿石项目已经被推迟到了明年。中信泰富持有近18%股份的国泰航空(Cathay Pacific)也有自己的衍生品问题需要解决，更不用说航空客流的低迷了。而中国房地产市场的前景也不明朗。虽然这些大多属于周期性挑战，但中信公司债务负担的增加意味着，该公司业绩有可能持续低迷。中信泰富的净负债权益比率在2008年年底达到了70%，高于上年同期的48%。美林(Merrill Lynch)认为这个数字今年可能会接近100%。中信泰富正在投资的房地产和钢铁业务今年不能指望带来多少现金，因此评级公司预计中信泰富今年的现金流状况将会恶化。诚然，来自中国国有母公司的潜在支持会给人们带来一些安慰，而且截至去年底，中信泰富自身还有约24亿美元的现金。但穆迪(Moody's)说，由于有12亿美元债务今年将陆续到期，以及32亿美元拟议中的资本支出，一些人开始怀疑，中信泰富将出售资产，以满足其资金需要。这无疑会打击公司的长期增长前景。在上月对外发布业绩时，荣智健说，他预计今年没有必要出售资产。但这种看法可能要随着他在周三一起走出公司大门了。Andrew Peaple相关阅读中信泰富主席荣智健因警方调查辞职 2009-04-09中信泰富接受警方调查 2009-04-04中信泰富全体董事接受调查 2009-01-05 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月09日09:29', '601600.SH'));中国铝业股份有限公司（简称：中国铝业）英文名称：Aluminum Co. of China Ltd.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：上海证交所股票代码：601600document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月09日09:29', '0267.HK'));中信泰富有限公司（简称：中信泰富）英文名称：Citic Pacific Ltd.总部地点：香港上市地点：香港交易所股票代码：0267document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月09日09:29', '2600.HK'));中国铝业股份有限公司英文名称：Aluminum Co. of China Ltd.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：香港交易所股票代码：2600document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月09日09:29', 'RTP'));力拓股份有限公司英文名称：Rio Tinto PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：RTPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月09日09:29', 'ACH'));中国铝业股份有限公司英文名称：Aluminum Co. of China Ltd. (ADS)总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：ACHdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月09日09:29', 'BBL'));Bhp Billiton Plc (ads)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BBLdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月09日09:29', 'BHP'));BHP Billiton Ltd. (ADS)总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BHPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月09日09:29', 'RIO.AU'));Rio Tinto Ltd.总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月09日09:29', 'BHP.AU'));Bhp Billiton Ltd.总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码：BHPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月09日09:29', 'BLT.LN'));BHP Billiton PLC总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：BLTdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月09日09:29', 'RIO.LN'));力拓股份有限公司英文名称：Rio Tinto Plc总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月09日09:29', 'CTPCY'));Citic Pacific Ltd. (ads)总部地点：香港上市地点：美国场外交易粉单市场(Pink Sheet)股票代码：CTPCY
While the foreign-exchange hedging scandal at Citic Pacific rumbles on, shareholders now have this to look forward to: a cyclical decline in every one of its major business lines and a growing debt burden.Citic said Chairman Larry Yung and Managing Director Henry Fan have resigned amid a police investigation into a debacle that cost the company nearly $2 billion. Those losses came as unauthorized bets on foreign-exchange rates soured.It's a long overdue development: Mr. Yung was at the helm when the positions were taken, so responsibility ultimately lies with him.The immediate concern over the losses was alleviated by a capital injection last year from the company's major backer, China's state-owned Citic Group.But even without this hole to climb out of, Citic isn't in great shape. Excluding the derivative losses last year, earnings would have dropped 81% in 2008.In each of Citic's key business lines -- mining, property, air travel and power generation -- the immediate outlook remains grim.The opening of an Australian iron-ore mine due this year has been delayed until 2010. Cathay Pacific, of which Citic owns nearly 18%, has its own derivatives problems to contend with, not to mention slumping air traffic. And property markets in China aren't yet in the clear.These are mostly cyclical challenges, but Citic's mounting debt burden means the downturn could have lasting repercussions.The company's ratio of net debt to equity reached 70% by the end of 2008, up from 48% the year before. Merrill Lynch reckons it could approach 100% this year.The property and steel businesses where Citic is investing can't be expected to throw off much cash near-term, so ratings companies expect Citic's cash-flow position to worsen this year.True, the potential for support from the company's Chinese state-owned parent provides some comfort, and Citic had about $2.4 billion of its own cash on hand at year end.But with $1.2 billion of debt coming due this year, and $3.2 billion of capital spending planned, Moody's says, some are starting to wonder if Citic will have to offload assets to meet its obligations. That would certainly be a blow to the long-term growth story.At last month's results presentation, Mr. Yung said he didn't expect asset sales to be necessary this year. That view may have walked out the door with him on Wednesday.Andrew Peaple
While the foreign-exchange hedging scandal at Citic Pacific rumbles on, shareholders now have this to look forward to: a cyclical decline in every one of its major business lines and a growing debt burden.Citic said Chairman Larry Yung and Managing Director Henry Fan have resigned amid a police investigation into a debacle that cost the company nearly $2 billion. Those losses came as unauthorized bets on foreign-exchange rates soured.It's a long overdue development: Mr. Yung was at the helm when the positions were taken, so responsibility ultimately lies with him.The immediate concern over the losses was alleviated by a capital injection last year from the company's major backer, China's state-owned Citic Group.But even without this hole to climb out of, Citic isn't in great shape. Excluding the derivative losses last year, earnings would have dropped 81% in 2008.In each of Citic's key business lines -- mining, property, air travel and power generation -- the immediate outlook remains grim.The opening of an Australian iron-ore mine due this year has been delayed until 2010. Cathay Pacific, of which Citic owns nearly 18%, has its own derivatives problems to contend with, not to mention slumping air traffic. And property markets in China aren't yet in the clear.These are mostly cyclical challenges, but Citic's mounting debt burden means the downturn could have lasting repercussions.The company's ratio of net debt to equity reached 70% by the end of 2008, up from 48% the year before. Merrill Lynch reckons it could approach 100% this year.The property and steel businesses where Citic is investing can't be expected to throw off much cash near-term, so ratings companies expect Citic's cash-flow position to worsen this year.True, the potential for support from the company's Chinese state-owned parent provides some comfort, and Citic had about $2.4 billion of its own cash on hand at year end.But with $1.2 billion of debt coming due this year, and $3.2 billion of capital spending planned, Moody's says, some are starting to wonder if Citic will have to offload assets to meet its obligations. That would certainly be a blow to the long-term growth story.At last month's results presentation, Mr. Yung said he didn't expect asset sales to be necessary this year. That view may have walked out the door with him on Wednesday.Andrew Peaple