The Greenskin - Poll Numbers Crunched
In case you haven't heard, Warhammer Alliance is running a massive class poll on their forums! Make sure to cast your vote and if you aren't already a member of WHA, this is the perfect time to join! Your votes will help create more accurate results and allow us to play TheoryHammer(tm) with fits of glee!
This is why I got into Warhammer Online blogging folks! Analysis. Comparison. Theorizing. Having fun! Let's get on with it then!
Results Summary
Destruction outnumbers Order 3:2
Greenskins outnumber Dwarfs 3:2
Chaos outnumbers Empire 3:2
D-Elfs outnumber H-Elfs 3:2
D-Elf vs. H-Elf is the closest pairing
Greenskin is the most popular realm
Dwarf is the least popular realm
Shaman is the most popular class
Hammerer is the least popular class
Shamans outnumber Runepriests 2:1
Chosen outnumber KotBS' 2:1
Magus' outnumber Bright Wizards 2:1
Disciples of Khaine outnumber Archmages 2:1
White Lions outnumber Witch Elfs 2:1
Click here to be taken my Google Spreadsheet!
Results in Detail
Several arguments were brought against my original analysis and rationale. First and foremost, I don't claim to have any experience doing this... You're reading a personal blog - not a scientific journal - though I'm sure you never for a second thought otherwise!
Main arguments and rebuttals:
This sample size is too small (3000)
Actually, a sample size of 1500-3000 is sufficient for most political polls
The margin of error is too great
A sample size of 1500-3000 yields a margin of error of 3% (confidence interval of > 0.05)
The results of this poll do not confirm any population inbalance issues at all for Warhammer Online
This is correct, but they do confirm my fears of population imbalance, which can be inferred from the original post title
Historically, pre-release MMORPG forum polls are inaccurate in determining post-release scenarios
I'll have to take your word for it as I'm unfamiliar with these polls, however, it's my guess that historical extrapolation may be about as accurate as pre-release MMORPG forum polls! ;) I think it's pretty hard to generalize MMORPGS based on historical trends because each game is unique and the results may surprise you (e.g., WoW is a game that had a shared pool of classes amongst both realms with two exceptions - WAR is a game that shares a pool of archetypes but each class is very unique).
Iconic familiar classes are without a doubt the most popular among the mainstream audience
I'll support this argument even though I have no evidence to back it up and the iconic classes are doing poorly based on votes from the hardcore audience
The problem is that polls require random, representative sampling, but the people here are not representative of the eventual WAR population, and it's not random because people are choosing to reply
This statement proves the poll is flawed. Trust me... I looked into it!
While I desperately tried to find a way to refute all arguments, the final one is officially too big to ignore. For any poll to be accurate, you need to use a random, representative sample or your results will be off and no margin of error can account for the skew.
Another caveat is that even amongst the hardcore audience, details are somewhat sparse on certain classes. For example, much is known and the Shaman and Engineer from recent Massively articles, yet little is known about the Knight of the Blazing Sun or Black Guard. Any votes given to the latter two classes seems suspect because they're being chosen by what people imagine the class will be, not on cold, hard facts.
While this poll might not be representative of how everything will play out at release, it still confirms a longtime fear of mine (and many) that Destruction is just going to be more popular than Order within the hardcore community. Whether our hardcore opinions will matter or not at release is still up in the air.
Jeff Hickman has stated they will offer incentives to weaker realms and may even put population caps in place, however, based on these raw results, we can make several statements. I do think there is merit in discussing why, amongst WHA forum members at least, Destruction is a bigger draw than Order. So here we go!
Destruction is more popular than Order (on WHA)
Destruction currently outnumbers Order by a 3:2 margin because each racial pairing is roughly 3:2 in favour of Greenskins, Chaos, and Dark Elves. The Dark Elf / High Elf pairing is slightly closer with 57% in favour of Khaine's minions vs. 43% choosing the "nobler" path. These results may vary as more people take the poll. Why do I think this is?
EA Mythic is marketing their game in favour of Destruction
I've never heard Paul Barnett speak so passionately as when he's describing the different classes of Warhammer Online, and he goes most bonkers for Destruction classes (Greenskins especially). It's just a fact. He favours destruction and he's the most popular public face for the game. The second most popular WAR dev is Josh Drescher... and he's crazy about Dark Elves. This is all fine and good, but I'd suggest they start speaking just as passionately about Order classes or give the unseen Order-lovin' WAR devs face time too. Right now, it's just unbalanced.
EA Mythic is also marketing the game as RvR-centric and most recently, "hardcore." A game like this is naturally going to appeal more to the people who traditionally play "evil" races in other MMORPGs. In World of Warcraft, it's no mystery that Horde players fancied PvP more than Alliance. In Dark Age of Camelot, Albion may have been the more popular realm across most servers, but Midgard was the most devout to RvR, which is saying something considering how ugly the realm was to play in (longtime Skald here). They seem to have realized this, which is why I believe Order is marketed as more of a grey area between good and evil. Doing more of this would help - but too much has other pitfalls! Chiefly, "what's the difference?"
Destruction classes are just cooler!
There are exceptions of course - Witch Hunters, White Lions, and Engineers - however, Order classes are more skewed towards tradition while Destruction classes are more unique takes on tradition.
The Warrior-Priest reminds me of a Paladin. The Ironbreaker reminds me of Gimli. A Bright Wizard... one-dimensional Fire Wizard. Shadow Warrior? Legolas. All classes in WAR have interesting mechanics, but Order, at its core, just seems a bit like more of the same.
Destruction on the other hand has the Disciple of Khaine - a dual-wielding melee healer! Blackguard... well we don't know too much about him but he just looks so badass with that massive halberd! You know he's gonna use it... and it's gonna hurt! The Magus is a chaos-magic mama (wonder if they can be female) with a living disc they float around on - and apparently it will have demon summons now too! All the greenskin classes... GW created the mold for these fungus-flingin' freaks of nature! A pet class that can be eaten by his squig to rock'em sock'em? We've never seen that before (correct me if I'm wrong)! The Sorceress is somewhat traditional but the fact that she can channel so much chaos magic that her head might explode? That's original too!
If you don't believe me, just compare each archetype in the racial pairs. Destruction wins 9 times out of 12 - and the Zealot/Warrior-Priest pairing is in a dead heat.
A 60/40 split at launch would be bad!
A 3:2 ratio doesn't sound very big does it? What happens when you multiply it by a thousand? Having 3000 Destruction vs. 2000 Order suddenly appears more alarming. That's a 1000 player advantage, which is 20% of what a typical server will hold (estimated 5000 per server).
Based on everything I've read or heard in interviews, the overall RvR campaign (leading you up to eventual city siege) will be largely determined by how your realm does as a whole across all tiers. An additional 1000 players contributing all their experience points and renown seems advantageous. An additional 1000 players to help zerg battlefield objectives and keeps, gaining more zone control for their realm, seems advantageous. You don't think 1000 extra people will matter? It's an additional 50% advantage for Destruction based on Order's population (of 2000). You don't think 150% vs. 100% is going to matter? Hmmm... then I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.
Final Thoughts
I'm going to put on my Cap of Positivity (+10) for this final section. I'm going to say that I hope (and nearly believe) that once the mainstream MMORPG market gets their hands on Warhammer Online, the realms will balance out closer to 1:1. I'm going to trust EA Mythic that their incentives and population caps will keep everything in check. To be honest, I don't have any reason to believe otherwise.
It's fun to learn what the hardcore audience is going to play at launch but even that is suspect. Many of the people who voted in this poll are basing their opinions on what they believe their class will be like, not on firsthand experience. Many people will log into the game and find out that their first choice is not something they'll stick with. Many people will have alts too.
It's also not unheard of in PvP/RvR games that players will actually roll new characters in a weaker realm, in an effort to seek greater challenges. My guild did this a couple times back in DAOC, though its biggest stint was with Mid/Nimue.
Playing TheoryHammer is fun, but it's also good to play by the rules. Based on proper opinion polling methods, you can not accurately determine WAR's population landscape using these results. The only reason I'm even remotely worried about the potential for population imbalance is that I'm torn between two feelings as a gamer: 1) I desperately want to play Destruction (Goblin Shaman) but 2) I would never, ever, in a million years, want to play in the most populated realm. It may sound elitist, but I'd much rather be the underdog instead of another wasp in the swarm. There's just no challenge in that...
If anything, I hope Order overwhelms Destruction or the balance is close to 1:1. That's my ideal scenario at launch
We offer the Cheapest Gold,the Best Service and the Latest Warhammer Information Here Warhammer Goldstrives to give you the best prices on warhammer gold service. we can always get warhammer gold quickly and fast delivery that brings you more satisfactorily. our aim is to make you happy with a more excited life in the game. we will try our best to provide customers the best service and the safest delivery. thanks to the loyal and new customers for supporting us all the time. if you are interested in warhammer you can enjoy great discount here! we will devote all efforts to returning, once again, thank you!
This is why I got into Warhammer Online blogging folks! Analysis. Comparison. Theorizing. Having fun! Let's get on with it then!
Results Summary
Destruction outnumbers Order 3:2
Greenskins outnumber Dwarfs 3:2
Chaos outnumbers Empire 3:2
D-Elfs outnumber H-Elfs 3:2
D-Elf vs. H-Elf is the closest pairing
Greenskin is the most popular realm
Dwarf is the least popular realm
Shaman is the most popular class
Hammerer is the least popular class
Shamans outnumber Runepriests 2:1
Chosen outnumber KotBS' 2:1
Magus' outnumber Bright Wizards 2:1
Disciples of Khaine outnumber Archmages 2:1
White Lions outnumber Witch Elfs 2:1
Click here to be taken my Google Spreadsheet!
Results in Detail
Several arguments were brought against my original analysis and rationale. First and foremost, I don't claim to have any experience doing this... You're reading a personal blog - not a scientific journal - though I'm sure you never for a second thought otherwise!
Main arguments and rebuttals:
This sample size is too small (3000)
Actually, a sample size of 1500-3000 is sufficient for most political polls
The margin of error is too great
A sample size of 1500-3000 yields a margin of error of 3% (confidence interval of > 0.05)
The results of this poll do not confirm any population inbalance issues at all for Warhammer Online
This is correct, but they do confirm my fears of population imbalance, which can be inferred from the original post title
Historically, pre-release MMORPG forum polls are inaccurate in determining post-release scenarios
I'll have to take your word for it as I'm unfamiliar with these polls, however, it's my guess that historical extrapolation may be about as accurate as pre-release MMORPG forum polls! ;) I think it's pretty hard to generalize MMORPGS based on historical trends because each game is unique and the results may surprise you (e.g., WoW is a game that had a shared pool of classes amongst both realms with two exceptions - WAR is a game that shares a pool of archetypes but each class is very unique).
Iconic familiar classes are without a doubt the most popular among the mainstream audience
I'll support this argument even though I have no evidence to back it up and the iconic classes are doing poorly based on votes from the hardcore audience
The problem is that polls require random, representative sampling, but the people here are not representative of the eventual WAR population, and it's not random because people are choosing to reply
This statement proves the poll is flawed. Trust me... I looked into it!
While I desperately tried to find a way to refute all arguments, the final one is officially too big to ignore. For any poll to be accurate, you need to use a random, representative sample or your results will be off and no margin of error can account for the skew.
Another caveat is that even amongst the hardcore audience, details are somewhat sparse on certain classes. For example, much is known and the Shaman and Engineer from recent Massively articles, yet little is known about the Knight of the Blazing Sun or Black Guard. Any votes given to the latter two classes seems suspect because they're being chosen by what people imagine the class will be, not on cold, hard facts.
While this poll might not be representative of how everything will play out at release, it still confirms a longtime fear of mine (and many) that Destruction is just going to be more popular than Order within the hardcore community. Whether our hardcore opinions will matter or not at release is still up in the air.
Jeff Hickman has stated they will offer incentives to weaker realms and may even put population caps in place, however, based on these raw results, we can make several statements. I do think there is merit in discussing why, amongst WHA forum members at least, Destruction is a bigger draw than Order. So here we go!
Destruction is more popular than Order (on WHA)
Destruction currently outnumbers Order by a 3:2 margin because each racial pairing is roughly 3:2 in favour of Greenskins, Chaos, and Dark Elves. The Dark Elf / High Elf pairing is slightly closer with 57% in favour of Khaine's minions vs. 43% choosing the "nobler" path. These results may vary as more people take the poll. Why do I think this is?
EA Mythic is marketing their game in favour of Destruction
I've never heard Paul Barnett speak so passionately as when he's describing the different classes of Warhammer Online, and he goes most bonkers for Destruction classes (Greenskins especially). It's just a fact. He favours destruction and he's the most popular public face for the game. The second most popular WAR dev is Josh Drescher... and he's crazy about Dark Elves. This is all fine and good, but I'd suggest they start speaking just as passionately about Order classes or give the unseen Order-lovin' WAR devs face time too. Right now, it's just unbalanced.
EA Mythic is also marketing the game as RvR-centric and most recently, "hardcore." A game like this is naturally going to appeal more to the people who traditionally play "evil" races in other MMORPGs. In World of Warcraft, it's no mystery that Horde players fancied PvP more than Alliance. In Dark Age of Camelot, Albion may have been the more popular realm across most servers, but Midgard was the most devout to RvR, which is saying something considering how ugly the realm was to play in (longtime Skald here). They seem to have realized this, which is why I believe Order is marketed as more of a grey area between good and evil. Doing more of this would help - but too much has other pitfalls! Chiefly, "what's the difference?"
Destruction classes are just cooler!
There are exceptions of course - Witch Hunters, White Lions, and Engineers - however, Order classes are more skewed towards tradition while Destruction classes are more unique takes on tradition.
The Warrior-Priest reminds me of a Paladin. The Ironbreaker reminds me of Gimli. A Bright Wizard... one-dimensional Fire Wizard. Shadow Warrior? Legolas. All classes in WAR have interesting mechanics, but Order, at its core, just seems a bit like more of the same.
Destruction on the other hand has the Disciple of Khaine - a dual-wielding melee healer! Blackguard... well we don't know too much about him but he just looks so badass with that massive halberd! You know he's gonna use it... and it's gonna hurt! The Magus is a chaos-magic mama (wonder if they can be female) with a living disc they float around on - and apparently it will have demon summons now too! All the greenskin classes... GW created the mold for these fungus-flingin' freaks of nature! A pet class that can be eaten by his squig to rock'em sock'em? We've never seen that before (correct me if I'm wrong)! The Sorceress is somewhat traditional but the fact that she can channel so much chaos magic that her head might explode? That's original too!
If you don't believe me, just compare each archetype in the racial pairs. Destruction wins 9 times out of 12 - and the Zealot/Warrior-Priest pairing is in a dead heat.
A 60/40 split at launch would be bad!
A 3:2 ratio doesn't sound very big does it? What happens when you multiply it by a thousand? Having 3000 Destruction vs. 2000 Order suddenly appears more alarming. That's a 1000 player advantage, which is 20% of what a typical server will hold (estimated 5000 per server).
Based on everything I've read or heard in interviews, the overall RvR campaign (leading you up to eventual city siege) will be largely determined by how your realm does as a whole across all tiers. An additional 1000 players contributing all their experience points and renown seems advantageous. An additional 1000 players to help zerg battlefield objectives and keeps, gaining more zone control for their realm, seems advantageous. You don't think 1000 extra people will matter? It's an additional 50% advantage for Destruction based on Order's population (of 2000). You don't think 150% vs. 100% is going to matter? Hmmm... then I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.
Final Thoughts
I'm going to put on my Cap of Positivity (+10) for this final section. I'm going to say that I hope (and nearly believe) that once the mainstream MMORPG market gets their hands on Warhammer Online, the realms will balance out closer to 1:1. I'm going to trust EA Mythic that their incentives and population caps will keep everything in check. To be honest, I don't have any reason to believe otherwise.
It's fun to learn what the hardcore audience is going to play at launch but even that is suspect. Many of the people who voted in this poll are basing their opinions on what they believe their class will be like, not on firsthand experience. Many people will log into the game and find out that their first choice is not something they'll stick with. Many people will have alts too.
It's also not unheard of in PvP/RvR games that players will actually roll new characters in a weaker realm, in an effort to seek greater challenges. My guild did this a couple times back in DAOC, though its biggest stint was with Mid/Nimue.
Playing TheoryHammer is fun, but it's also good to play by the rules. Based on proper opinion polling methods, you can not accurately determine WAR's population landscape using these results. The only reason I'm even remotely worried about the potential for population imbalance is that I'm torn between two feelings as a gamer: 1) I desperately want to play Destruction (Goblin Shaman) but 2) I would never, ever, in a million years, want to play in the most populated realm. It may sound elitist, but I'd much rather be the underdog instead of another wasp in the swarm. There's just no challenge in that...
If anything, I hope Order overwhelms Destruction or the balance is close to 1:1. That's my ideal scenario at launch
We offer the Cheapest Gold,the Best Service and the Latest Warhammer Information Here Warhammer Goldstrives to give you the best prices on warhammer gold service. we can always get warhammer gold quickly and fast delivery that brings you more satisfactorily. our aim is to make you happy with a more excited life in the game. we will try our best to provide customers the best service and the safest delivery. thanks to the loyal and new customers for supporting us all the time. if you are interested in warhammer you can enjoy great discount here! we will devote all efforts to returning, once again, thank you!