2007年软件开发技术预测集锦－Java,软件开发,Ajax

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首先是Java方面的：

10. NetBeans IDE Platform will be divided into NetBeans Enterprise Edition, Standard (or Desktop) Edition, and Mobile (or Micro) Edition. NetBeans will continue to gain market share against Eclipse, but Eclipse will maintain a slim market share lead by year’s end.

9. JBoss Seam framework will become nearly as popular as Spring Framework, in terms of market share, adoption, etc.

8. Hibernate has matured, and will likely be “retired” by Red Hat JBoss; but it will remain the de-facto industry standard for Persistence engines until broader frameworks Spring and JBoss Seam persistence offerings take hold. Technology to watch: Apache OpenJPA.

7. Java Web frameworks consolidation: the winners will at least start to emerge in JRuby (Ruby on Rails on JVM), Grails, JSF/Apache MyFaces, and Struts Action Framework 2.0. Technologies to watch: Java Web Parts and maybe RIFE.

6. Java EE 6 alpha code drop will take place at/around JavaOne; and will be offered under GPL license initially in incubator.

5. Sun’s Jini, OpenSolaris, GlassFish, and NetBeans will become official Apache projects, while Java.net will remain the incubator for nascent open source Java projects from Sun.

4. IBM acquires Interface21 and the Spring Framework; will create super enterprise development and deployment framework stack with Spring Framework (w/scripting extensions using Groovy/Grails), Apache Geronimo, and, of course, Eclipse. May lead to a commercial version as well as open source community edition.

3. Sun will acquire the rights to Java.org through acquisition, and use this as their primary portal to all things open source Java, mostly nascent open source Java projects and RSS feeds to their other more mature projects on Apache.org.

2. Oracle merges with/acquires Red Hat (includes JBoss) as the “dance” has already begun with Oracle Linux which is based on Red Hat Linux, past Oracle-JBoss interest and discussions, etc.

And number…

1. HP looking to be relevant again, beyond printers, may acquire/merge with BEA Systems, Inc. which would give them top-down, top-notch complete software solution stack to bundle with their servers. HP currently does NOT have an in-house software stack solution like IBM, Sun, etc. This may also give HP access to a broader and more appropriate customer base…

接下来是整个软件开发的

1. Virtualization - Affordable multi-core systems and muli-cpu systems and the ever growing costs of maintaining racks of servers would push operational staff to deploy more virtualization solutions like VMWare and Xen. Vendors will begin to package their server solutions as virtual appliances. Java solution vendors despite being O.S. agnostic will also adopt this approach. Software vendors will follow Zeus ZXTM VA and re-work their software to be usable within a virtualized environment. The JVM will be also rebundled as a VMWare virtual machine, in fact the opensourcing of the JVM will have its greatest impact on this area.
2. Cloud Architecture - The cost and maintenance benefits of services like Amazon's S3 and Elastic Cloud will have such a tremendous architectural appeal that more and more services will be architected in a similar way. Furthermore applications will be re-architected to make best use of these services. There will be several roadblocks along that will limit its uptake however this would be a long term architectural trend.
3. Parallel Programming - Developers would need to scratch an itch as to how best to develop systems to support multi-core hardware. Intense efforts will be attempted at extracting parallelism at the micro-level. There will be a resurgence of old ideas like dataflow computing, implicitly parallel functional languages and stream processing, however this would be of only niche utility, primarily useful for the gaming and scientific communities. Coarse grain parellism in the form of virtualization and to a lesser extent cloud architectures will continue to dominate. Personal users will begin to realize the benefits of mega-tasking, and the majority of demand for muli-core/cpu machines will spring from this usage.
4. Dynamic Programming Languages - Ruby (and Groovy) will continue to gain converts, however it will be confined to a minority of highly capable development organizations. The ease of creating Domain Specific Languages (DSLs) in Ruby/Groovy will lead to rise in literature promoting the idea. Tools for Ruby/Groovy will continue to develop in sophistication. In the end, Ruby and Groovy will become an adjunct tool for Java developers, just like Ant. The .NET IronPython implementation will continue to be superior to the Java based JRuby and Groovy implementations, however it will gain less mind share on purely subjective and social reasons. Python doesn't have that 'X-factor' and .NET already has a de-facto 'scripting' language.
5. Java Content Repository - Organizations will begin to worry about their creaky poorly supported CMS and begin towards safeguarding their content assets by migrating to a JCR implementation. This will further be driven by the emergence of more sophisticated applications that work off the JCR API.
6. The Browser Javascript Integration Platform - People will be utterly stunned by the utility of browser based extensions as a means of integration. The developments such as Mozilla's Operator, robust AJAX libraries like Tibco GI and Social Web applications like PiggyBank will lead to an explosion of desktop application develpment that would be solely browser based. Mashups will be taken to the next level where workflow integration would be performed at the browser. Javascript performance will be improved with JIT compilation.
7. Eclipse Ubiquity - Eclipse development tools will be prevalent in development organizations regardless of programming language chosen (i.e. C++, Flash, Javascript, Ruby, Python, etc), however, the growth of RCP based applications will be challenged by Browser Based Integration techniques. What's more likely is that Eclipse plugins to support the competing browser based technology will be developed. Eclipse based Enterprisey toolsets catering to project lifecycle management and model driven architecture will be commonplace in 2007.
8. Multimodal AJAX frameworks - Interest in Google's GWT toolkit will continue to grow, particular in more traditional Java based organizations. GWT will be used not only to develop AJAX applications, but Mobile based applications using J2ME. This will be at the expense of Laszlo that will make excruciating slow progress to finish its AJAX and J2ME bindings. Tibco GI would make strong headway in traditional development organizations, however one would see little uptake in this technology in Web 2.0 offerings. Tibco GI's traditional desktop like UI despite being extremely impressive doesn't fit the low cognitive overhead requirements of Web 2.0 applications. Until it's refactored to allow bite sized configurations, I expect to see it used more in Browser based extensions.
9. Life after EJB - The EJB nightmare is finally over. Unfortunately, the world we're transitioning to is extremely fragmented. Out of the carnage, Spring and JBoss (i.e. Hibernate, jBPM, Rules) have emerged as the two main competitors in the enterprise space. Spring and JBoss are actually meta-frameworks, Spring structures participation using code, JBoss does it through employment. Other vendors will align with one or them or both (see: Alfresco, Nuxeo, Atlasian etc). However, it is safe to say, that any respectable enterprise java worth its salt would be based on either of these two frameworks. JBoss Seam framework will gain traction and JSF will be the new Struts.
10. Decentralized Identity Management - Every architecture group in big IT organizations has grapled with the problem of unified identity management across their enterprise. Unfortuntately, it has been a complex problem from both the technical and social perspective. Fortunately, a viable and lightweight solution has been developed (i.e. OpenID). I expect OpenID to take tremendous mindshare in 2007, in an order of magnitude greater than other solutions such as SAML, Liberty and MS Passport that came before it.
11. Dead WebServices - WS-* and its corresponding specifications like SOAP and WSDL will be declared dead by year end. You'll find the decalaration first by tool vendors and open source projects that'll refuse to expend anymore effort treking the wrong path. The ensuing void will force SOA to drift to be more about methodologies and SOA 'governance' (i.e. SOA 2.0 ).
12. A Little Bit of Semantics Everywhere - Jim Hendler summarizes this observation best. The top down ivory semantic web approach has run out of steam, fortunately lots of grass roots developments like del.icio.us tagging, revyu, microformats, google base, flickr etc. are providing developers with a massive (albeit less structured) knowledge base that will in 2007 springboard semantic web technologies into the spot light.

关于Ajax的

It’s the time of year to be posting random predictions for 2007. Here are 2007 Ajax predictions from Dion and myself, please post your own in the comments.

Dion predicts:

• Ajax beats AJAX in all but bad newspapers.
• Someone tries to coin Ajax 2.0.
• A large amount of apps have flash AND ajax, and users don’t know or care.
• Many frameworks consilidate or die.
• A widget api means componts can run on many frameworks using one api.
• Ajax wpf/e interop.
• Dashboards become front boards.
• More desktop apps get written with javascript.

Michael predicts:

• 2005 was the year that developers learned all about Ajax and by 2006 everyone else in the industry had caught up. In 2007, is is mainstream users who become acutely aware of the trend towards rich applications inside the browser, and discover that even word-processors and spreadsheets - along with a wide array of workplace applications - can be webified. At the same time, users remain oblivious - and rightly so - to the underlying technologies that power them.
• The boundaries of Ajax harden, with most developers gaining a clear understanding of what it can and can’t do with modern browsers and managers in a better position to decide on application architecture (whether to use Ajax, Flash, desktop, etc.).
• More attention on Ajax accessibility due to some government report or court case.
• Google Office. Finally!
• Backlash against Google Office as managers learn that their data must be hosted externally in order to use it. Pressure from bloggers and some analysts to make an Office appliance that can live behind the firewall, but it’s not happening in 2007.
• The advertising and media communities finally become aware that page view metrics are no longer the only way, but generally treat it as a problem and fail to see that the situation is actually better than before.
• Several fringe technologies heat up as developers notice they are already being used in some applications and learn how to apply them: HTTP Streaming (Comet), Virtual Workspace (Live Scrolling - never-ending scrollbars), Cross-Domain JSON (along with JSONP, JSON APIs, JSONRequest, and a general lack of awareness about the JSON security issues), Unique URLs (bookmarkability/back button), Lazy Registration (personalized functionality before formal signup). Comet in particular … it may be 8 or 9 years old, but it’s big news in 2007.
• Other fringe technologies grow, but remain, well, fringe. Such as Host-Proof Hosting and applications involving offline storage.
• With its excellent documentation and pattern language integration, the Yahoo UI library becomes the standard weapon of choice among mainstream developers seeking a pure Javascript framework. In the Java world, GWT makes great strides as the platform becomes richer and design patterns emerge.
• Mobile web development continues to suck.
• Javascript increasingly recognised as the world’s most popular “second language” and becomes popular as a lingua franca to describe generic programming concepts. Several attempts at server-side Javascript frameworks.
• IE7 causes more than a few headaches.
• Firebug is installed by pretty much any developer using Firefox.
• CSS is back, baby! Echoing the recent mass adoption of Javascript, developers who previously had a fleeting familiarity with CSS now become fluent practitioners.

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