Double Deal Marks Rising Confidence

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“周一并购热”正卷土重来，市场的信心也在逐步回升。新出现的交易活动包括卡夫食品(Kraft Foods)报价收购吉百利(Cadbury)以及德国电信(Deutsche Telekom)旗下英国移动子公司金额60亿美元的可能合并交易。这表明，企业高管对公司命运感到更有信心，愿意再次斥资寻求交易。这和仅仅6个月前的市场一片恐慌形成了鲜明对比。并购交易的回升符合其他经济指标的向好势头。其中，8月份美国供应管理学会(ISM)新订单数强劲回升，巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)表示，这预示着美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)增速可能会超过5%。另一方面，公司负面消息数量也明显减少了。汇丰(HSBC)表示，过去3个月英国公司严重负面消息数量（导致股价下挫8%）已经下降到了一年多来的最低水平。就算出现可能的负面消息，其负面影响可能也会弱于此前。上周苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)被阻止偿还部分后续债券的消息没有带来严重影响。如果是以前的话，这一消息可能会引发市场动荡。情况好转的关键是信贷市场的持续回升，这一定程度上要得益于各国政府部门注入的大量流动性。穆迪(Moody's)的数据显示，美国Baa级长期公司债目前收益率为6.58%，实际上已经回到了2004-07年信贷热潮时期的水平。投资级公司已经能够通过债市筹资，这意味着卡夫食品提出报价之前不需要先解决融资问题。如今，投资者较长期的担忧因素仍然是政府会怎样从不同寻常的刺激措施中撤出。关于通货膨胀的争论将继续激烈。银行体系的更多缺陷和居高不下的失业率可能会破坏经济复苏。但短期来说，市场信心可能是传染性的。Richard Barley相关阅读吉百利拒绝卡夫 糖果业竞购大战一触即发 2009-09-08美国并购市场触底回暖 2009-09-02迪士尼收购Marvel 白雪公主牵手钢铁侠 2009-09-01


Merger Monday is back, and with it a growing sense of confidence. Burgeoning deal activity -- including Kraft Foods' bid for Cadbury and a possible merger for Deutsche Telekom's $6 billion U.K. mobile unit -- suggests executives feel more in control of their destinies and are willing to put money on the table, again. That is a far cry from the panic of just six months ago.The pickup tallies with other positive indicators including strong new orders in August's Institute for Supply Management survey, which Barclays Capital says is indicative of real gross-domestic-product growth above 5%.Nasty corporate shocks are also rarer. In the U.K., HSBC says the three-month running total of shock announcements by companies, defined as leading to an 8% share-price fall, is at its lowest in more than a year.And potential shocks are also having less impact. Last week's news that Royal Bank of Scotland was being prevented from repaying some subordinated debt passed without incident but might once have roiled markets.The key has been improving credit markets, thanks in part to the flood of liquidity unleashed by authorities. Long-term U.S. 'Baa' corporate-bond yields are at 6.58% -- virtually the credit-boom levels of 2004-07, according to Moody's. And investment-grade companies have unfettered access to bond markets, meaning Kraft didn't feel the need to lock down funding before launching its bid.Longer-term worries remain about how extraordinary stimulus measures will be removed. The inflation debate will rage on. More weakness in the banking sector and high unemployment could yet undermine the recovery. But in the short term, confidence can be infectious.Richard Barley