第二编 货币的价值
第十三章 货币政策
概要
Originally, citizens judged the success of monetary policy by the soundness of the coinage it maintained in circulation. In modern times monetary policy refers to government (or central bank) efforts to alter the purchasing power of money. The chief instrument through which the State carries out monetary policy is its strong influence on the kind of money used by the citizenry.
起初，公民们通过铸币在流通中被保持的健康性来判断货币政策是否成功。在现代，货币政策是指政府（或中央银行）改变货币购买力的努力。国家实施货币政策的主要手段是对公民使用的货币种类施加强烈影响。
Inflationism is that monetary policy that seeks to increase the quantity of money. Naïve inflationism believes that money constitutes wealth, and that creating more money will turn poor into rich. A second group of inflationists understands that printing more money will cause prices to rise, but endorses the policy because they want to help debtors or achieve some other goal. A third group of inflationists understands that the policy in general will wreak economic havoc, but they support it too because they believe some essential government programs sometimes must be paid for through an “inflation tax.” Economics can say, without making any value judgments, that inflationism is a very poor policy for achieving its stated objectives.
通货膨胀主义是旨在增加货币数量的货币政策。天真的通货膨胀主义者认为货币构成财富，创造更多的货币将使穷人变成富人。第二类通胀主义者明白，印更多的货币会导致物价上涨，但他们赞同这项政策，因为他们想帮助债务人或实现其它目标。第三类通胀主义者明白，总体而言这一政策将严重破坏经济，但他们也支持这一政策，因为他们认为某些必要的政府计划有时必须通过“通胀税”来支付。经济学可以说，即使不作任何价值判断，通货膨胀对于实现其既定目标而言也是一个非常糟糕的政策。
Restrictionism or deflationism is policy that aims at raising the objective exchange value of money. It is unpopular for various reasons.
限制主义或通货紧缩主义是旨在提高货币客观交换价值的政策。由于种种原因，它并不受欢迎。
Because neither inflationism nor deflationism is capable of achieving its stated objectives, the only sensible monetary policy is one that aims at eliminating all government interference with the purchasing power of money. In practice, this means a rigid adherence to a commodity standard, which in modern times means either the gold or silver standard.
由于通货膨胀主义和通货紧缩主义都不能实现其既定目标，唯一合理的货币政策是消除政府对货币购买力的一切干预。在实践中，这意味着对商品本位制的严格遵守。在现代，这意味着金本位或银本位。
In technical economic theory, the only coherent definition for inflation is an increase in the quantity of money (in the broader sense of the term) that is not offset by a corresponding increase in the demand for money (in the broader sense of the term), with the necessary result being a fall in the purchasing power of money. Deflation is the opposite, namely a reduction in the quantity of money that is not offset by a fall in the demand for it, such that prices tend to fall. The economist who wishes to influence public policy and avert disaster shouldn’t lecture others on their sloppy use of terminology, but instead should expose the errors of inflationism.
在技术经济理论中，对通货膨胀唯一一致的定义是：（广义）货币数量的增加不会被（广义）货币需求的相应增加所抵消，其必然结果是货币购买力下降。通货紧缩则是相反的，即货币数量的减少不会被需求下降所抵消，从而使价格趋于下降。希望影响公共政策并避免灾难的经济学家不应该向其他人讲授他们对术语的草率使用方法，而是应该揭露通胀主义的错误。
章节大纲
一、货币政策的定义
Originally, citizens judged the success of monetary policy by the soundness of the coinage it maintained in circulation. If and when governments violated that trust by debasing the coinage, it was for fiscal (i.e., budgetary) ends: the authorities needed more money and so turned to inflation.
起初，公民们通过铸币在流通中被保持的健康性来判断货币政策是否成功。如果政府通过降低铸币成色而违反了这种信任，那是为了财政（即预算）的目的：当局需要更多的货币，于是转向了通货膨胀。
In modern times, however, governments use monetary policy to achieve other socio-political aims. Although particular factions may favor one monetary policy versus another because of the specific advantages they expect to derive—for example, the owners of gold mines favoring a return to the gold standard—in general monetary policy nowadays refers to government (or central bank) efforts to alter the purchasing power of money.
然而，在现代，政府利用货币政策来实现其它社会政治目标。虽然特定派别可能倾向于一种货币政策而不是另一种货币政策，因为他们期望获得特殊的利益——例如，金矿的所有者支持回归金本位——货币政策现今通常是指政府（或中央银行）改变货币购买力的努力。
二、货币政策工具
The chief instrument through which the State carries out monetary policy is its strong influence on the kind of money used by the citizenry. As controller of the mint and sole issuer of money substitutes, the modern State has wide discretion in this “choice” by its subjects. If the State decides to remain on a metallic standard (such as gold or silver), then it still must choose which precious metal. More generally, if the State opts for a credit or fiat money, then the State has the further option of altering the quantity of money at will, to achieve its objectives regarding the purchasing power of money.
国家实施货币政策的主要手段是对公民使用的货币种类施加强烈影响。作为铸币厂的控制者和货币替代品的唯一发行者，现代国家对货币种类的这种“选择”具有广泛的自由裁量权。如果国家决定保持金属标准（如金或银），那么它仍然必须选择哪种贵金属。一般来说，如果国家选择信用货币或法定货币，那么国家还可以选择随意改变货币数量，以实现其有关货币购买力的目标。
三、通货膨胀主义
Inflationism is that monetary policy that seeks to increase the quantity of money. Naïve inflationism believes that money constitutes wealth, and that creating more money will turn poor into rich. A second group of inflationists understands that printing more money will cause prices to rise (an elementary fact that the first group fails to see). Yet even so this second group endorses the policy, because they want to help debtors, or achieve some other goal, by raising prices. Finally, a third group of inflationists understands that the policy in general will wreak economic havoc, but they support it too because they believe some government programs (such as defense from foreign invaders) are absolutely essential, and sometimes must be paid for through an “inflation tax.”
通货膨胀主义是旨在增加货币数量的货币政策。肤浅的通货膨胀主义者认为货币构成财富，创造更多的货币将使穷人变成富人。第二类通胀主义者明白，印更多的货币会导致物价上涨（第一类人看不到这一基本事实）。但第二类通胀主义者还是支持这项政策，因为他们希望通过提高价格来帮助债务人或实现其它目标。最后，第三类通胀主义者明白，总体而言这一政策将严重破坏经济，但他们也支持这一政策，因为他们认为某些政府项目（如防御外国侵略者）是绝对必要的，有时必须通过“通胀税”来支付。
This third defense of inflation underscores the anti-democratic nature of the policy. Its proponents candidly admit that the public would never support certain programs (such as major wars) if they were forced to explicitly bear the full financial burden through taxation or government deficits financed by genuine savings. But when the programs are funded (partially) through the printing press, it is not clear to the average voter what is causing prices to rise and his standard of living to fall. He blames unions or currency speculators, not government spending.
对通货膨胀的第三种辩护强调了该政策的反民主性质。它的支持者们坦诚地承认，如果公众被迫通过税收或由真正储蓄提供资金的政府赤字来明确承担全部财政负担，他们将永远不会支持某些计划（如重大战争）。但是，当这些项目通过印刷机获得（部分）资金时，普通选民并不清楚是什么导致了价格上涨和他的生活水平下降。他会指责工会或货币投机者，而不是政府支出。
Ironically, if the public anticipates a sharp future decline in the purchasing power of money because of an influx of new notes (printed by the government), then prices in the present can rise in expectation. Yet until the new notes physically exist, there may appear a shortage of notes. Thus the public and academics may clamor for more inflation, in order to satisfy the apparent “needs of commerce.” Yet it is inflationism itself that has caused the problem, and further bouts will only exacerbate the situation.
具有讽刺意味的是，如果公众预期由于（由政府印制的）新纸币的涌入，货币购买力将在未来大幅下降，那么当前的价格可能会随预期上涨。然而，在新纸币实际存在之前，可能会出现纸币短缺的情况。因此，公众和学者可能会呼吁更多的通货膨胀，以满足明显的“商业需求”。然而，正是通货膨胀本身造成了问题，而进一步的通货膨胀只会加剧这种情况。
Economic science cannot judge the policy objectives of inflationism; it cannot say whether it is proper to (say) help debtors or exporters at the expense of others. But what economics can say, without making any value judgments, is that inflationism is a very poor policy for achieving its stated objectives. Each of its alleged goals (helping debtors, helping exporters, etc.) can be achieved much more directly by other interventions besides a general debasement of the monetary unit. In this sense economics can criticize inflationism.
经济科学无法判断通货膨胀主义的政策目标，它不能说是否应该牺牲他人的利益来帮助债务人或出口商。但是，经济学可以说，即使不作任何价值判断，通货膨胀对于实现其既定目标而言也是一个非常糟糕的政策。除了货币单位的普遍贬值外，它所宣称的每一个目标（帮助债务人、帮助出口商等）都可以通过其他干预措施更直接地实现。从这个意义上讲，经济学可以批评通货膨胀主义。
四、限制主义或通货紧缩主义
Restrictionism or deflationism is policy that aims at raising the objective exchange value of money. It is unpopular for various reasons. First, governments do not benefit from it because they must sacrifice potential spending in order to (say) retire some of the notes collected through taxation. Second, a nation with an appreciating currency would see a “deteriorating” trade balance in the eyes of the public, which is also unpopular. Finally, the primary beneficiaries of deflationism are creditors, who generally speaking are a small and unpopular group.
限制主义或通货紧缩主义是旨在提高货币客观交换价值的政策。由于种种原因，它并不受欢迎。首先，政府不能从中受益，因为他们必须牺牲潜在的支出，以便（比如）退还一些通过税收收集的纸币。其次，一个货币升值的国家在公众眼中会看到“恶化”的贸易平衡，这也是不受欢迎的。最后，通货紧缩的主要受益者是债权人，他们通常是一个规模小而且不受欢迎的群体。
The only time deflationism is politically viable occurs after a period of inflationism, either for matters of prestige or to assure international creditors to continue using a certain country’s financial institutions. Yet even here, a policy of deflationism does not simply reverse the harms of the prior inflation, but instead causes many new harms of its own. For example, many of the creditors who will be helped by the current round of deflation were not the same people harmed during the inflation. In general it must be concluded that deflationism is a poor method for achieving the specific aims of its proponents.
通货紧缩主义在政治上可行的唯一时期发生在通货膨胀时期之后，无论是为了信誉还是为了保证国际债权人继续使用某个国家的金融机构。然而即使在这时，通货紧缩政策也并不能简单地扭转先前通货膨胀的危害，反而会引发许多新的危害。例如，许多将受到当前通货紧缩帮助的债权人并非是那些在通货膨胀期间受到伤害的人。总的来说，必须得出结论，通货紧缩政策是实现其支持者具体目标的一种糟糕方法。
五、作为货币政策目标的货币客观交换价值的稳定性
If neither inflationism nor deflationism is capable of achieving its stated objectives, the only sensible monetary policy is one that aims at eliminating all government interference with the purchasing power of money. In practice, this means a rigid adherence to a commodity standard, which in modern times means either the gold or silver standard.
由于通货膨胀主义和通货紧缩主义都不能实现其既定目标，唯一合理的货币政策是消除政府对货币购买力的一切干预。在实践中，这意味着对商品本位制的严格遵守。在现代，这意味着金本位或银本位。
六、货币政策的局限性
As all government efforts to influence the purchasing power of money must ultimately work through the subjective valuations of individuals, in this realm as in others the government’s power is limited. The authorities cannot anticipate the precise, long-run effects of their efforts to manipulate the currency, and this is one of the strongest arguments against such manipulation in the first place.
由于政府影响货币购买力的所有努力最终都必须通过个人的主观估值来实现，在这一领域，与其它领域一样，政府的能力是有限的。当局无法预测他们操纵货币的努力所产生的精确、长期的影响，这是最有力反对这种操纵的论据之一。
七、附记：通货膨胀和通货紧缩概念
In technical economic theory, the only coherent definition for inflation is an increase in the quantity of money (in the broader sense of the term) that is not offset by a corresponding increase in the demand for money (in the broader sense of the term), with the necessary result being a fall in the purchasing power of money. Deflation is the opposite, namely a reduction in the quantity of money that is not offset by a fall in the demand for it, such that prices tend to fall. However, outside the realm of technical economics, the terms inflation and deflation have certain connotations. The economist who wishes to influence public policy and avert disaster shouldn’t lecture others on their sloppy use of terminology, but instead should expose the errors of inflationism.
在技术经济理论中，对通货膨胀唯一一致的定义是：（广义）货币数量的增加不会被（广义）货币需求的相应增加所抵消，其必然结果是货币购买力下降。通货紧缩则是相反的，即货币数量的减少不会被需求下降所抵消，从而使价格趋于下降。然而，在技术经济学领域之外，“通货膨胀”和“通货紧缩”这两个术语具有一定的内涵。希望影响公共政策并避免灾难的经济学家不应该向其他人讲授他们对术语的草率使用方法，而是应该揭露通胀主义的错误。
技术说明
On page 219 Mises writes, “If a country has a metallic standard, then the only measure of currency policy that it can carry out by itself is to go over to another kind of money.” What Mises has in mind—and this is borne out by the important phrase “by itself”—is that the classical gold standard placed strict limits on each of the participating countries. In the period before the first World War, for example, the United States government pegged the dollar to 23.22 grains of gold (working out to around $20.67 per ounce), while the British government pegged its own currency at the rate of ￡4.25 to an ounce of gold. Thus the exchange rate between the dollar and British pound was fixed at $4.86 to a pound. If the United States government began printing up excessive amounts of new dollars, this would tend to cause domestic prices (quoted in dollars) to rise faster than they did (quoted in pounds) in Great Britain. Americans would start importing more from (cheaper) British producers, and the resulting trade deficit would allow the British to accumulate more and more dollars. This in turn would put pressure on the foreign exchange rate, which would (under a fiat standard) simply cause the dollar to depreciate against the British pound. But since both currencies were tied to gold at fixed rates, the falling dollar would open up an arbitrage opportunity for speculators to turn their dollars into the U.S. authorities in exchange for gold. Thus, as its gold reserves began to dwindle, the U.S. would have to abandon its inflationary path. Thus a metallic standard keeps sharp limits on the inflationary policies of any single country.
在英文版第219页，米塞斯写道：“如果一国已采用某种金属本位制，则该国自己所能采取的唯一通货政策措施，就是改用另一种货币。”“该国自己”这个重要的词证实了，米塞斯认为古典金本位对每个参与国都有严格的限制。例如，在第一次世界大战之前，美国政府将美元与23.22格令黄金挂钩（相当于每盎司20.67美元左右），而英国政府则将本国货币与黄金的汇率固定在4.25英镑兑换1盎司黄金。因此，美元和英镑之间的汇率固定为4.86美元对1英镑。如果美国政府开始印刷过多的新美元，这将导致国内价格（以美元计价）比英国国内价格（以英镑计价）上涨更快。美国人将开始从（更便宜的）英国生产商进口更多的产品，由此产生的贸易逆差将使英国人积累越来越多的美元。这反过来会对外汇汇率施加压力，而这（在法定标准下）只会导致美元兑英镑贬值。但由于这两种货币都以固定汇率与黄金挂钩，美元贬值将为投机者提供套利机会，将美元兑换成美国当局的黄金。从而，随着黄金储备开始减少，美国将不得不放弃其通胀之路。因此，金属本位制对任何一个国家的通胀政策都有严格的限制。On page 227 Mises writes, “In all countries where inflation has been rapid, it has been observed that the decrease in the value of the money has occurred faster than the increase in its quantity.” On the following page he explains that the value of money is influenced by both supply and demand. For a modern example, suppose that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve announced that he would cause the quantity of U.S. dollars to rise by a factor of 1,000 in the course of a week. Even ignoring the step-by-step process of inflation, the end result would not simply be a general 1,000-fold rise in prices. Instead, prices (quoted in U.S. dollars) would rise by much more than that, because Americans would no longer want to hold dollars. They would no longer view the dollar as a safe currency, and would seek to replace their dollar holdings with either other currencies or perhaps the precious metals. In order to restore equilibrium, then, prices would have to rise not merely on account of the extra quantity of dollars, but also because of the sharp drop in the subjective desire to hold them.
在英文版第227页，米塞斯写道，“在所有通货膨胀迅速的国家，人们都注意到货币价值的下降速度快于货币数量的增加。”在下一页，他解释说货币价值受到供需双方的影响。举一个现代的例子，假设美联储主席宣布他将在一周内使美元数量增加1000倍。即使忽略了通货膨胀的逐步发生过程，最终的结果也不会是物价普遍上涨1000倍。取而代之的是，价格（以美元报价）的上涨幅度将远远超过这个数字，因为美国人不再想要持有美元。他们将不再把美元视为一种安全的货币，并将寻求用其他货币贵金属取代他们持有的美元。于是，为了恢复均衡，不但因为美元的额外数量，而且因为持有美元的主观愿望急剧下降，价格将不得不上涨。
新术语
Monetary policy: Government or central bank efforts to alter the purchasing power of money.
货币政策：政府或中央银行改变货币购买力的努力。Inflationism: Monetary policy that seeks to increase the quantity of money.
通货膨胀：追求增加货币数量的货币政策。Naïve inflationism: Inflationism supported by the belief that money constitutes wealth.
肤浅的通货膨胀主义：一种通货膨胀主义，由货币构成财富这样的信念支撑。Inflation tax: The redistribution of wealth from the citizenry to the government (or its designated beneficiaries) through inflation.
通货膨胀税：通过通货膨胀将财富从公民手中重新分配给政府（或其指定受益人）。Restrictionism/Deflationism: Monetary policy that aims at raising the objective exchange value of money.
限制主义/通缩主义：旨在提高货币的客观交换价值的货币政策。Inflation: An increase in the quantity of money (in the broader sense of the term) that is not offset by a corresponding increase in the demand for money (in the broader sense of the term), with the necessary result being a fall in the purchasing power of money. (Note that this is a technical economic definition, not necessarily having the connotations of “inflation” in popular discussions.)
通货膨胀：货币数量（广义上）的增加，不被货币需求（广义上）的相应增加所抵消，其必然结果是货币购买力的下降。（请注意，这是一个技术性的经济定义，在流行讨论中不一定具有“通货膨胀”的含义。）Deflation: A reduction in the quantity of money that is not offset by a fall in the demand for it, such that prices tend to fall. (Note that this is a technical economic definition, not necessarily having the connotations of “deflation” in popular discussions.)
通货紧缩：货币数量的减少不会被货币需求的下降所抵消，从而导致物价趋于下降。（请注意，这是一个技术性的经济定义，在流行讨论中不一定具有“通货紧缩”的含义。）
研究问题
What unflattering possibility does Mises suggest regarding Ben Franklin’s support of paper money early in his career? (p. 217)
米塞斯认为，本·富兰克林在其职业生涯早期对于纸币的支持有什么不光彩的可能性？（英文版第217页）Why does “naïve inflationism” recommend an increase in the quantity of money? (pp. 219–20)
为什么“肤浅的通货膨胀主义”建议增加货币数量？（英文版第219-220页）Is it possible for someone to support inflationism, even if he understands that it will have grave economic consequences? (pp. 221–22)
是否有可能，有人即使知道通货膨胀会带来严重的经济后果，但他仍然支持通货膨胀？（英文版第221-222页）Explain: “Inflation becomes the most important psychological resource of any economic policy whose consequences have to be concealed; and so in this sense it can be called an instrument of unpopular, i.e., of anti-democratic, policy, since by misleading public opinion it makes possible the continued existence of a system of government that would have no hope of the consent of the people if the circumstances were clearly laid before them.” (pp. 223–24)
解释：“通货膨胀成为必须隐瞒其后果的任何经济政策最重要的心理资源；因此，从这个意义上讲，它可以被称为不受欢迎政策（即反民主政策）的工具。因为通过误导公众舆论，它可能使没有希望获得民众支持（如果情况清楚地摆在他们面前）的政府制度继续存在。”（英文版第223-224页）Would Mises have been surprised by the second half of the twentieth century, since he writes, “In the long run, a money which continually fell in value would have no commercial utility. It could not be used as a standard of deferred payments” (p. 227)?
米塞斯会不会对20世纪下半叶感到惊讶，因为他写道，“从长远来看，不断贬值的货币将没有商业用途。它不能用作延期付款的标准。”（英文版第227页）