Boris Johnson on course for comfortable victory in UK election
英国大选：鲍里斯•约翰逊有望轻松取胜
--------From YLYK 每日外刊精读专辑
① The general election is just two weeks away and the major parties are busying themselves with TV debates and door-to-door campaigning.
距离英国大选只剩两周时间，主要政党都在忙于参加电视辩论，以及挨家挨户地为竞选活动拉票。
② The results from YouGov’s MRP poll predict that the Conservatives are set to win a comfortable 359 seats, meaning an overall majority of 68. The poll forecasts a loss of 50 MPs for labour, giving Corbyn’s party just 211 seats in parliament.
英国民调机构YouGov运用民调模型“多级复原和事后分层法”（MRP）预测，保守党将轻松拿下359个席位，比其他政党总和多出68席。该民调还预测，科尔宾带领的工党将损失50个议员席位，从而在议会中仅占211席。
③ The YouGov data questioned 100,000 people about their voting intentions. The numbers are then crunched by a complex computer model and compared to previous weeks, to estimate how people from a particular demographic would vote if the election were held tomorrow. This polling method is widely regarded as reliable because the same model accurately predicted the outcome of 2017’s general election.
YouGov采集了10万人的投票意向数据。之后这些数字经由复杂的电脑模型计算以及与前几周数据的比对，最后估计出在明天就是大选的情况下，某一特定人群会如何投票。该民调手段的可靠性得到了广泛认可，因为同一模型曾准确预测了2017年的大选结果。
④ Some analysts have cautioned that predictions of an easy Tory victory could have a negative impact. Conservative supporters may be less motivated to vote if they believe a clear majority is on the cards.
一些分析人士警告称，“保守党将轻松获胜”的预测可能会产生负面影响。如果保守党支持者认为多数席位势在必得，那他们投票的积极性可能就不那么高了。
⑤ The news will undoubtedly come as a blow to the Labour Party, but they will hold on to the fact that in an election campaign, every day counts and these figures are already seven days old.
这一消息无疑会对工党造成打击，但他们坚信的事实是，竞选活动的每一天都充满了变数，而这些民调数字已经是七天前的老黄历了。
⑥ In Britain there is a famous saying, ‘a week is a long time in politics’. Labour have two.
英国一句有名的谚语说：“一周对于政局而言很长”。工党现在还有两周。
生词好句
on course for if you are on course for sth, you are likely to achieve it
She is on course for a gold medal in the Olympics.
她有望在奥运会上夺得金牌。
We're on course for the coldest December on record.
我们即将迎来有记录以来最寒冷的12月。
The film is on course for an Oscar next month.
这部电影有望于下个月拿下奥斯卡奖。
away UK /əˈweɪ/ US /əˈweɪ/ adv. in the future; from now
The wedding is two months away.
还有两个月就要举行婚礼了。
The holiday is still three weeks away.
离假期还有三个星期。
busy oneself with sth if you busy yourself with sth, you're busy doing that thing
The students are busying themselves with exam revision.
学生们正忙于复习考试。
She was busying herself in the kitchen, preparing dinner.
她在厨房忙着准备晚饭。
MRP Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification
set to likely to do sth
He is set to win this year's prize.
今年的奖铁定是他的。
Oil prices are set to rise again this year.
今年油价肯定要再涨。
crunch UK /krʌntʃ/ US /krʌntʃ/ vt. to crunch the numbers or to crunch numbers, means to do mathematical work, to do some calculations involving large amounts of information or data (the numbers)
Today's computers can crunch numbers much faster than the human brain.
今天的计算机处理数字的速度比人脑快得多。
We need to crunch the numbers before we make a decision.
在做决定之前，我们需要仔细考虑一下这些数字。
demographic UK /ˌdeməˈɡræfɪk/ US /ˌdeməˈɡræfɪk/ n. a demographic is a group of people who are similar in age, social class and so on
Most of our listeners are in the 25-39 age demographic.
我们的听众大多在25-39岁这个年龄段。
This demographic (young teenagers) is the fastest-growing age group using our website.
这一人群(青少年)是我们网站使用率增长最快的年龄组。
be on the cards if sth is on the cards, it means it is likely to happen
come as a blow to sb if sth especially news about sth comes as a blow to you, it makes you feel surprised and disappointed (it is usually bad news)
The company's financial results will come as a blow to investors.
该公司的财务业绩将对投资者造成打击。
The new tax law will come as a blow to many small businesses.
新税法将冲击许多小公司。