2018年11月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数
一、指数概览
2018年11月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）录得31.3，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为31.3%。2017年以来，NEI指数波动较大，按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月上升1.5个百分点（图1）。本月NEI的上升主要来自资本投入的上升。
NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产；其次，可持续的较快增长；第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月）》。
二、主要分项指标
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2018年11月NEI的上升主要来自资本投入的上升。科技投入指数从2018年7月开始波动回升，本月指数录得29.3，环比上升1.9。资本投入指数近一年来波动较大，本月指数录得37.1，环比上升2.5。劳动力投入指数趋于稳定，本月指数录得27.6，环比上升0.5（图2）。
劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化百分比分别为0.2，0.9，和0.5个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2018年11月NEI变化的贡献值为1.5（图3）。
分行业看，本月各行业排名与上月保持一致，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2018年11月为总指数贡献了12.1个百分点；占比最低的行业是新能源汽车产业，为总指数贡献了0.1个百分点。
三、新经济就业
2018年11月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平为每月10212元，较上月上升62元（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。
2018年11月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例上升0.5%，同时新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重上升0.4%。这意味着新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平出现下降。2018年11月新经济入职工资“溢价”为3.1%，低于上月3.2%（图6）。本月新经济行业平均工资溢价延续下降趋势。
四、从劳动力需求数据看经济走势
本月我们从劳动力招聘的结构中研究中国经济的变化。我们按照出口交货值占工业总产值的比重，将规模以上制造业企业分为出口企业和非出口企业两大类，并计算这两大类企业在近18个月中的招聘数量。可以看到，在最近一年内，无论是出口企业还是非出口企业，招聘岗位数量都经历了先上升后下降的过程（图7），其中出口企业上升更为明显、下降更为迅速，且下降幅度远超此前上升的幅度。2018年，在中美贸易摩擦刚刚宣布的3 – 4月，出口企业的平均招聘数量要比非出口企业高出40%到50%，而至11月，两者的招聘数量已经基本趋于一致。
在图8中，我们分析了出口企业不同招聘岗位的变化，可以看到规模以上企业在今年的招聘中，上半年以普工和操作工为主，2018年6月之后，普工和操作工的招聘数量大幅下降，销售代表的招聘数量从8月开始上升，这与我们之前几个月的结论类似——在中美贸易战的影响下，出口企业首先抢出口、抢生产；而在贸易战正式开打后，出口企业开始减少普工和操作工的数量、增加销售代表的岗位，以实现去库存的目标。
本月，我们还通过观察传菜员、送餐员和快递员这三个岗位的变化，分析了人民消费结构的转变。其中，传菜员代表传统餐饮行业的一个必要岗位，当传统餐饮客流量增大时，传菜员会首先增加；送餐和快递分别代表了在家或办公室享用外卖和使用电商的情况。我们从图9-1中可以看到，传菜员的招聘数量从今年5月开始有所下降，11月降至5月的一半左右，送餐员和快递员的招聘数量分别在今年6月和7月达到顶峰，目前2个岗位的招聘数量均不足峰值的60%。
往年为应对双十一促销活动，快递员的招聘数量和工资水平在9月都出现了一个小高峰，而这个小高峰在今年并没有如期到来（图9-1和图9-2）。此外，在岗位数量和工资水平上，市场对送餐员的需求开始逐渐超过传菜员。外卖点餐对外出就餐的替代是消费升级还是降级仍有待验证，但外卖和快递需求的下降是不争的事实。
六、城市新经济排名
2018年11月新经济总量城市排名前20名如图10所示，北京、上海、深圳、广州和南京排名前五。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。
图11计算了2018年5月到2018年11月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为北京、南京、广州、上海、深圳。
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BBD（数联铭品）
BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家 陈沁
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万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。
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November 2018
Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index
Overview
In November 2018, the Mastercard Caixin BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 31.3, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 31.3% of overall economic input activities that month, up 1.5 ppts from October(Chart 1). The rising NEI was due to the increase of capital input. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light, 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports(March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.
Primary Inputs
The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weights of the index,respectively. The rising in the November NEI reading came from the increase of capital input (Chart 2). Technology input index was on an uptrend since July, coming inat 29.3 this month, with 1.9 MoM increase. Capital input fluctuated widely in the recent year, rebounding to 37.1 this month, with 2.5 MoM increase. Labor input index showed a stable trend, increasing slightly to 27.6 this month, with 0.5 MoM increase.
Taking the weights into account, percentage changes inlabor, capital and technology inputs were 0.2, 0.9, and 0.5 ppts, respectively.The net NEI change was 1.5 ppts in total (Chart 3).
As for sectors, the rankings were the same as previous month, with the New IT industry forming the largest proportion of the New EconomyIndex and contributing 12.1 ppts to NEI. New Energy Vehicles was the industrywith the lowest ranking, only contributing 0.1 ppts this month (Chart 4).
New Economy Employment
In November 2018, the average monthly entry-level salary of the New Economy was RMB 10,212, increasing from last month’s level of RMB 10,150(Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites ofcareer platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as wellas other sites that list job openings.
Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 27.1% of the total in November, 0.5% higher than the previous month. At the same time,the compensation share of New Economy increased by 0.4%. Accordingly, the average entry salary level of New Economy declined compared to the whole economy. The entry-level salary premium of the New Economy decreased, from 3.2%in October to 3.1% as compared to economy-wide counterparts (Chart 6).
Economic Trends Based on Employment Data
This month we broke down employment data of enterprises above designated size. We defined enterprises as exporting ones if the proportion of delivery value for exports is nonzero, and employment data of both exporting and non-exporting enterprises were collected dated back to April, 2017. In the past 18 months, both export and non-export enterprises’employment showed an inverted U-shape (Chart 7), while exporting enterprises experienced faster rises and declines. When U.S.-China trade friction worsened in March & April 2018, the employment of exporting enterprises increased sharply by 40% to 50% higher than their non-exporting counterparts, but half a year later, the employment gap between two groups shrank.
We decomposed the employment data of exporting enterprises in Chart 8. In the first half year of 2018, recruitment of general workersand operators contributed to large part of new employment but declined afterJune. Since August, employment of sales representatives increased sharply. It’s apparent that exporting enterprises expanded production when there were signs of trade friction and focused on sales promotion after trade war occurred.
We also explored the employment of waiter, food courier and express courier to find the change of consumption structure. Waiter is irreplaceable for traditional catering industry and demands for waiters are determined by customers in the restaurants. Couriers are more related to food take-outs and e-commerce. As shown in Chart 9-1, the employment of waiters declined since May, dropping to about half amount of May. The employment of couriers peaked in June and July and decreased since then.
Last year, the employment and average salary of express couriers jumped in September in response to Nov.11 Shopping Festival (Chart 9-1and 9-2). The effect didn’t reoccur this year. It’s noted that recently both the employment and average salary of food couriers were significantly higher than that of waiters, indicating the high demands for take-out dining. It is yet to be verified whether it was consumption upgrading or downgrading.
City Rankings of the New Economy
Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities were shown in Chart 10. The top five cities were Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen,Guangzhou and Nanjing. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past six months.
Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between May2018 and November 2018. The top five cities were Beijing, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Shanghaiand Shenzhen.
For further information please contact:
Mastercard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Director, Communications
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Email：[email protected]
Caixin Insight Group
Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist
Tel：+86-10-85905019
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Ma Ling, Public Relations
Tel：+86-10-8590-5204
Email：[email protected]
BBD
Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist
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Emails：[email protected]
The Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.
About Caixin
Caixin Media is China's leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visitwww.caixin.com.
About Mastercard
Mastercard (NYSE: MA),www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. Mastercard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MastercardAP and @MastercardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.
About BBD (Business Big Data)
BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visithttp://www.bbdservice.com/.