2018.01.06期 p23
Life expectancy 平均寿命
Not great, again 再次不太乐观
Why life expectancy is down for the second year in a row. 为什么平均寿命连续两年都缩短。
JUST as Americans headed home for the year-end holidays, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued its annual report on mortality—which had no news to celebrate. According to the report, published on December 21st, life expectancy in America fell in 2016,for the second year in a row.An American baby born in 2016 can expect to live on average 78.6 years,down from 78.9 in 2014. The last time life expectancy was lower than in the preceding year was in 1993. The last time it fell for two consecutive years was in 1962-63.
正当美国人们回家休年终假的时候，疾控中心发布了关于死亡率的年报——这份年报没有值得庆祝的新闻。根据12月21日发布的年报所说，2016年美国人的平均寿命缩短了，这是连续第二年缩短。2016年出生的美国婴儿预期的平均寿命从2014年的78.9岁缩短到78.6岁。上一次发生平均寿命比前一年缩短的情况是在1993年。上一次连续两年平均寿命缩短是在1962年的平均年龄63岁。
Other statistics suggest that this alarming trend is caused by the epidemic of addiction to opioids, which is becoming deadlier. Drug overdoses claimed more than 63,000 lives in 2016. Two-thirds of these deaths were caused by opioids, including potent synthetic drugs such as fentanyl and tramadol,which are easier to overdo by accident and are becoming more popular among illegal drug users.
其他统计数据表现，这一令人担忧的趋势是由人们滥用阿片类药物造成的，这种药物变得越来越致命。2016年超过63000的人死于药物过量。其中三分之二的死亡是由阿片类药物引起的，其中包括如芬太尼和曲马多等强效合成药物，这些药物更容易一不留神就过量，而这些药物在非法药物中越来越流行。
According to the CDC, the leading causes of death in 2016 remained heart disease and cancer. But a category called“unintentional injuries”, which includes drug overdoses,climbed to third place—from fourth place in 2015 and fifth place in 2012. Although unintentional injuries caused just 6% of deaths in 2016, they claim mostly people in the prime of their lives. A young person’s death cuts average life expectancy by more than the death of an older person.
疾控中心的报告指出，2016年引起死亡的主要因素依然是心脏病和癌症。但是，一类叫做“非故意伤害”的因素从2012年的第五位和2015年的第四位攀升至第三位，这其中就包括药物过量。报告中还指出，尽管2016年因“非故意伤害”导致的死亡只占6%，但它们中的大多数（死者）都是年轻人。死亡一个年轻人，对平均寿命的数据的影响大于死亡一个老年人。
The steepest rise in mortality was among 25- to 34-year-olds. In that age group deaths per 100,000 people from any cause increased by 11% from 2015 to 2016. Mortality from drug overdoses in the same age group shot up by 50% from 2014 to 2016.
25-34岁是死亡率最高的，在这个年龄段中，每十万人中由于各种原因死亡的人数从2015年到2016年增加了11%。同样在这个年龄段中，因药物过量而死亡的人数从2014年到2016年则飙升了50%。
At the same time,the decrease in mortality from heart disease and cancer which has been a chief driver of the steady increase in life expectancy—has begun to level off.As a result, further increases in overdose deaths would probably push life expectancy down again. A decline for three straight years was last seen in America a century ago, when the Spanish flu pandemic ravaged the world.
与此同时，心脏病和癌症引起的死亡率下降，这已经成为了提高平均寿命的主要因素，并且已经处于平稳。结果，因药物过量而引起的死亡率进一步增加又很可能再一次降低平均寿命。上一次出现连续三年平均寿命降低的情况是在美国一个世纪以前，当时西班牙大流感席卷了全世界。
This outcome seems likely.According to CDC officials, provisional data for the first half of 2017 suggest that overdose deaths continued to rise.Foot-dragging by President Donald Trump’s administration has not helped matters. On the campaign trail in 2016, Mr Trump promised to take on the opioid epidemic as a priority.So far, his administration has not produced a plan or appointed a “drug tsar” to oversee a strategy to curb addiction. Nor has it asked Congress to allocate the billions of dollars needed to treat the estimated 2 m people hooked on opioids. The national Public Health Emergency Fund has just $57,000 on hand, because it has not been replenished for years. States and local authorities are setting up addiction-treatment services. But without new money from federal sources, their efforts will buckle under the weight of the problem.
这个结果似乎很有可能。疾控中心官员称，2017年上半年的临时数据表明，药物过量导致的死亡人数在继续增加。美国特朗普政府的拖沓工作并没有给这一情况带来帮助。在2016年的竞选过程中，特朗普曾许诺要优先对于阿片类药物的滥用采取措施。然而迄今为止，他的政府并未制定出一个计划或者指定出一个负责人来监管药物成瘾问题。并且也没有让国会拨出几个亿的必要款项来对大约两百多万药物成瘾的人进行治疗。国家公共卫生应急基金目前手头上只有57000美元，因为政府已经好几年没给他们拨款了。各国和当地政府正在设立戒毒和治疗服务。但如果没有联邦政府的新资金，他们的努力将会在这个问题下被压倒。
A continued decline in life expectancy would leave America trailing even farther behind other rich countries.Lives in America are already two years shorter than the average in the OECD group of 35 rich and soon-to-be-rich countries: life expectancy is closer to Costa Rica’s and Turkey’s than to that of Britain, France and Germany. If the administration cannot reverse this then—at least when it comes to longevity in the Western world—its policy might be described as America Last.
平均寿命的持续缩短会使美国远落后于其他富裕国家。美国人的平均寿命已经比经济合作与发展组织的35个富裕国家和即将富裕的国家的平均寿命短了2年。与英国，法国和德国相比，美国人的平均寿命更接近于哥斯达黎加和土耳其。如果政府不能扭转这一局势——至少也应该在当西方世界谈到长寿这一问题的时候，其政策也能够被描述得像美国那样。