Technology Maturity Curve

Better and Better                                                                                              Day 68

      Yesterday we learned the innovation diffusion curve. But in reality, we often find that some new things come quickly and go fast at the beginning, such as sharing portable battery. Therefore, we will use the technology maturity curve to explain this phenomenon. There is often a rule in technology development that countless companies and capital are like keen hunters. Once new technologies are found to be feasible, they will follow up immediately for fear of missing them. But new technology is often imperfect, and there will be many twists and turns on the round of development. Faced with this, speculator are easy to leave. At this time, truly competitive new technologies will continue to develop, which forms a “N” curve.       

      昨天我們學習了“創新擴散曲綫”。不過現實里，我們往往發現有的新事物來的快，去得也快，比如共享充電寶。於是，我們用“技術成熟度曲綫”來解釋這個現象。技術的發展往往有這麽一個規律，無數公司、資本就像是敏銳的獵手，一旦發現新技術被證明了可行，因爲害怕錯過，會立即跟進。但新技術往往不完美，發展路上會有很多曲折。面對曲折，投機者容易陸續離場，這時真正有競爭力的新技術仍會繼續發展，構成了一個“N”型曲綫。 

                                                                                                            Oct.31th ,2018                                                                                                                    Bazhou.