MIGRATION
移民
You don't have to be rich
财富不能主宰一切
From The Economist print edition
摘自《经济学人》印刷版
Developing countries attract migrants too
发展中国家也在吸引着移民
THE complaints sound familiar. Foreigners steal our jobs. Aliens cause a rise in crime. The corrupt interior ministry cannot cope. The border is ineffective and deporting illegal migrants does not work: removed by train, they return on foot. Outsiders put a strain on housing, especially for the poor, and on hospitals and schools. But employers do not care: farmers want cheap labour, and rich families need skilful foreign gardeners and housekeepers。
抱怨已是耳熟能详。外国人偷走了我们的工作，引发了犯罪率上升。国内腐败的政府部门无法应对。边界是形同摆设，驱逐非法移民不能奏效：非法移民坐火车被驱回，便以步行重新再来。外来人员在住房（尤其是穷人的住房），医院和学校方面带来巨大压力。但雇主却不在意：农民需要廉价劳工，富裕家庭需要娴熟的外国花匠和管家。
中国是世界发达国家移民的主要来源
Residents of Soweto, or other urban areas in South Africa, are likely to grumble about foreigners in the same way as in rich countries. The makwerekwere, as African foreigners are insultingly known, are attracted by South Africa's relative wealth. Some Tanzanians talk longingly of Johannesburg as “Little London”. One in four Little Londoners may now be a foreigner. Zimbabwean teachers, forced out by hunger and repression, work as security guards and shop assistants. Congolese lawyers toil as waiters and chefs.
同富国的做法一样，索韦托或南非部分城镇区的居民或许也会对外国人说三道四。南非一些较富地区正吸引makwerekwere（对非洲外来移民的蔑称）。一些坦桑尼亚人热切地把约翰内斯堡称为"小伦敦"。现在或许有1/4的小伦敦人是外国人。被饥饿和压迫驱逐在外的津巴布韦教师们做着保安和店员的工作。刚果律师在服务员和厨师的职位上劳碌着。
In 2005 two World Bank researchers, Mr Ratha and William Shaw, estimated that two in five migrants—about 78m people—were outside rich countries. But who in the poor world is counting? South Africa's government does not know how many foreigners it has (2m? 5m? more?). Mexico, India or Turkey cannot be sure either. Total numbers are skewed by those displaced by the collapse of the Soviet Union or who became de facto migrants when borders moved.
2005年，世界银行两位的调研人员拉特和威廉-肖恩估计，2/5的移民（约7800万）身处富国之外。但谁又会在穷国进行计算呢？南非政府不知道国内有多少外来人员（200万？500万？还是更多？）。墨西哥，印度或土耳就更不确定了。苏联垮台所造成的流动人员，或边界移动所带来的实际移民，这都使人口总数受到影响。
Ms Newland of the Migration Policy Institute in Washington, DC, says the flows between poor and mid-income countries are huge but “desperately understudied”. One reason why outsiders pay little attention is that most poor migrants do not move far. Roughly half of all South-East Asian migrants are thought to have remained in the neighbourhood, and nearly two-thirds of migrants from eastern Europe and Central Asia have stayed in their own region. Nearly 70% of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa remain on their continent. West African countries do not limit immigration from their neighbours, so lots of people cross borders, for example from Ghana to oil-rich Nigeria.
华盛顿移民政策研究所的纽兰德女士表示，贫穷和中等收入国家的移民浪潮规模庞大，但又"绝对可以理解"。移民不为外界所关注的一个原因就在于大多数贫困移民不会走远。将近一半的东南亚移民被认为是在邻国流动，约占2/3的东欧和中亚移民会在本洲区域流动。近七成撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲地区的移民仍在非洲大陆流动。西非国家对来自邻国的移民不加限制，这引发了大量人群跨越边界，涌入他国。例如，从加纳到石油丰富的尼日利亚。
Some middle-income countries, such as Morocco, Mexico, Turkey and Libya, are well-trodden transit routes with migrant populations of their own. A senior civil servant in Morocco laments that his country is “between the hammer and the anvil” of Africa and Europe. Others, like India, Russia, South Africa and Argentina, are destinations in their own right. With all this come the same opportunities and threats as in the rich world. Chile imports doctors and maids from Peru, raising worries about a brain drain. Zambians fret about an invasion by Chinese, whose numbers in Africa are said to be between 80,000 to 400,000, many in oil-rich countries such as Sudan, Nigeria and Angola.
一些中等收入国家，如摩洛哥，墨西哥，土耳其和利比亚，就是人来人往（包括本国人）的转运路线。摩洛哥一位资深文职官员不无惋惜地表示，自己的国家是身处非洲和欧洲的"锤砧之间"。另一些国家，如印度，俄罗斯，南非和阿根廷，凭借自身优势成为移民终点站。所有这一切都同富国所面临的机遇和威胁完全相同。智利由秘鲁引入大量医生和女佣，这已引发了人们对人才外流的担忧。赞比亚人对中国人（据说在非洲有8-40万）的涌入焦虑不安。在盛产石油的国家，如苏丹，尼日利亚和安哥拉，也可看到大量中国人的身影。
Remittances from one low-income country to another probably help to cut poverty. A 2006 study of 4,700 households by the Southern African Migration Project found that 40% of Zimbabwean households received some money from this source. How much is hard to measure, but a World Bank estimate for 2006 gives a range for remittances among poor countries of $17 billion-55 billion.
低收入国家相互间的汇款可能有助于消除贫穷。2006年，在对4700户家庭调研后，南非移民计划署发现40％的津巴布韦家庭通过汇款获得一些钱财。目前，数目尚难以衡量，但据世界银行的估计，贫穷国家于2006年所收款项的范围在170-550亿美元之间。
Some middle-income countries are extraordinarily welcoming. Venezuela, awash with oil revenues, even allows Colombians to use its social-welfare system. Argentina has lifted most restrictions on immigration from South America, again guaranteeing access to public health and education, even for illegal migrants. But many other countries show signs of xenophobia. On one occasion a newspaper in Morocco gave warning that “black locusts”—African migrants—were invading. Russian authorities, especially in Moscow, regularly throw out traders from Georgia and elsewhere in the Caucasus. Libya occasionally expels African migrants.
一些中等收入国家对移民大力欢迎。大发石油横财的委内瑞拉甚至允许哥伦比亚人享有该国的社会福利体制。阿根廷对南美国家的移民解除了最大限制，再次承诺他们（甚至包含非法移民）享有公共医疗权和接受教育的权利。但一些国家却有仇外的心理。摩洛哥的某家报纸曾发出了"黑色蝗虫"（非洲移民）正在入侵的警告。俄罗斯当局，尤其在莫斯科，时常把来自格鲁吉亚和高加索地区的商人驱逐出境。利比亚也偶尔会驱赶非洲移民。
Many poor people are drawn to somewhat less poor countries in the hope of finding work, just as they are to rich countries. But with war, repression and economic collapse, push factors are much stronger in the poor world. The invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the violence since, has uprooted more than 4m Iraqis. Some 95% of them have remained in the Middle East, including 2m in hard-pressed Jordan and Syria. Sweden, with an admirable history of taking in refugees, has welcomed 23,600 Iraqis, but few other rich countries have followed suit. Some of the displaced are beginning to return home. Since the Taliban were booted from power in 2001, Afghanistan has seen the voluntary return of at least 3.2m people from Pakistan, Iran and elsewhere.
许多穷人身怀找份工作的梦想被吸引到不甚贫困的国家，这同他们前往富国的目的基本相同。但由于战争，压迫和经济崩溃，这些推动因素在贫穷国家愈演愈烈。在2003年入侵伊拉克以来，暴力活动已令400万多伊拉克人背井离乡。大约有95％的伊拉克人留在中东，其中有200万置身处境困难的约旦和叙利亚。在收留难民上，瑞典国家有着的令人敬佩的历史传统。尽管瑞典才安置23600伊拉克人，但少数富国也已在纷纷跟进中。一些流离失所者已开始返回家园。自从塔利班政权于2001年被推翻后，阿富汗已至少有320万人从巴基斯坦，伊朗和其他国家自愿返乡。
Climate of fear
令人忧虑的气候变化
Could a changing climate cause similarly big ebbs and flows? Scientists agree that average temperatures are likely to rise significantly by the end of this century. Rainfall patterns are already shifting. Those in marginal areas, for example on the edges of deserts, will suffer most, along with those in countries with the least resources to adapt. The sea is also rising, which might mean floods on vulnerable coasts. Some 12% of Africa's urban population, and 18% of Asia's, live in low-lying coastal zones and may be exposed to extreme weather or floods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggested in 2007 that millions may face water shortages, hunger and flooding as a result of climate shifts. Some would migrate, although probably over a period of time.
气候变化是否同样会引起移民浪潮大起大落？科学家认为，到本世纪末，全球平均气温可能会显著上升。降雨型态已在转变。随着一些国家可用资源是急速减少，那些边缘地带（沙漠边缘）的人群将深受其害。海平面也在不断上升，这在易受损害的海岸线可能就意味着洪涝灾害。约占12％的非洲城市居民和18％的亚洲的城市居民，生活在地势低洼的沿海地区，同时也可能会遭受极端天气或洪涝灾害。政府间气候变化专门委员会于2007年认为：由于气候的变化，数百万人可能将面临缺水，饥饿和洪水等问题。有些人会远走他乡，尽管可能需要一段时间。
Environmental change has already set off some migration. Because the Sahel region gets much less rain than it did a century ago, farmers in Mali are moving to the cities. According to the UN Environment Programme, over the past four decades the desert in Sudan has crept south by about 100km and forests have disappeared. Rainfall in north Darfur, in Sudan, has dropped by a third over the past 80 years.
环境变化已开始引发部分人口迁移。由于撒赫耳(Sahel)地区的降雨量比一个世纪前偏少许多，生活在马里的农民们不得不向城市迁移着。据联合国环境计划署的统计来看，苏丹境内的沙漠在过去40年已向南延伸了约100公里，森林已消失。苏丹达尔富尔地区北部的降雨量在过去80年减少了1/3。
All this has displaced people and, some believe, encouraged war. Morocco's government is anxious about it. “There is a direct impact on migration. You see people leaving sub-Saharan Africa in search of more habitable land,” says Mr Ameur, the minister for Moroccans abroad. Abdelhay Moudden, a migration expert in Rabat, suggests that the first to leave may be struggling farmers: “If the urban economy cannot absorb them, then it may also push international migration.”
由于上述原因，人口被迫转移，战争受到滋长（有人对此深信不已）。摩洛哥政府对此是忧虑忡忡。摩洛哥外务部长Ameur表示："这对移民有直接影响。你会看到人们正在离开撒哈拉以南的非洲，去寻找更多的居住之地。"拉巴特的移民专家Abdelhay Moudden认为首先离开的是为生活苦苦挣扎的农民："如果城市的经济状况无法接受他们，这就有可能把他们推向通往国际移民的梁山之路"
A 2005 report by the Institute for Environment and Human Security in Bonn suggested that rising seas and extreme weather, among other things, could uproot 150m people by 2050. Ms Newland of the Migration Policy Institute cautions against talking up the figures, but thinks that if drought and rising temperatures cause crop yields to fall in, say, the Sahel, they will probably encourage migration. If climate change were to cause wars or spread disease, that could compound the effects. Another reason, then, to switch to low-energy light bulbs.
位于波恩的环境与人类安全研究所在2005年发布的一份报告显示，到2050年，上升的海平面和极端天气等因素会使1.5亿人背井离乡。移民政策研究所的纽兰德女士，告诫不要对数字过于夸大。但她认为，如果干旱和上升的气温造成农作物产量下降（譬如在撒赫耳地区），那将可能会助长人口迁移。如果气候变化将引发战争或者传播疾病，那将引发更为复杂的后果。这也要是改用低能耗灯泡的令一个原因。
