Beginner's Luck vs. Real Talent

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Continue reading the book "The Art of Thinking Clearly", by Rolf Dobelli, on beginner's luck vs. real talent.

You may have noticed one of these that happened around you:

1. A friend gambles for the first time, claiming he has no idea on how to gamble, but he keeps winning;

2. A new comer to the field spots a critical team for the team;

3. A newbie player beats seasoned players in a row, and is called a black horse.

It's entirely possible that a beginner who just entered the game is such a genius, that he always seems to do a better job than the players with years of experience.

However, for most people, it's probably not true -- most of us have to learn, practice to grasp knowledge and skills, and improve overtime. During the early stages, it's very easy to mess things up. As we improve, we do better and get better results.

Therefore, when you notice someone new, or yourself does things like a genius, do not make your conclusion too fast: it might be beginner's luck, rather than real talent.

How to tell the differences:

1. Observe if you are much better than others over a long period of time, or it's just a temporary thing. Unfortunately, you never be 100% sure.

2. The more people are competing, the more chances are one of them continue striking lucky. It might be you.

The best way to find out whether it is true is to try to disprove it.