译注：
即使你认为这不可能，但是最好还是未雨绸缪做好准备。
本文作者 Tyler Cowen 为 Bloomberg Opinion 的专栏作家，乔治梅森大学（George Mason University）经济学教授，并为「边际革命」（Marginal Revolution）博客撰文。著有《自满阶层：美国梦的弄巧成拙》（The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream）。
So what would the decline of America look like? I don’t ask the question because I think it’s happening (yet?), but because even the most inveterate optimist should be interested in the dangers, if only to ward them off.
那么美国的衰落会是怎样的情景呢？我问这个问题，不是因为我认为这已经在发生，而是因为即使是那些最顽固的乐观分子也应该对危险保持警惕，君子不立危墙之下。
Here’s the cleanest tale of hypothetical decline I could come up with, keeping away from the more partisan or hysterical scenarios, or those involving a catastrophic deus ex machina.
以下是我能想到的最干净利落的「衰退」假设，不涉及那些偏向于党派性的或者耸人听闻的场景，亦不包含牵强附会的毁灭性灾难。
Imagine that the United States gets through the presidency of Donald Trump without a crippling constitutional crisis. Still, the shrill public debate — which will continue well past Trump’s time in office — will continue to prove unequal to the task of addressing the nation’s most pressing problems.
想象一下，在没有严重的宪法危机的情况下，美国安然度过了唐纳德·特朗普的总统任期。尽管如此，这场激烈的公共辩论--将远不止于特朗普的任期--将继续被证明无法解决国家最紧迫的问题。
In recent years, the underlying rate of productivity growth often has been about 1 percent, and rates of economic growth are not even half of what they used to be. Meanwhile, America will have to increase taxes or reduce spending by about $2,200 per taxpayer per year to keep the national debt-to-GDP ratio from rising ever higher, and that figure predates the Trump tax cuts.
近年来，基础生产率增长率一直在1%左右徘徊，而经济增长率甚至不到过去的一半。与此同时，为了防止国家债务占国内生产总值比率（debt-to-GDP）不断攀升，美国将不得不增加税收或者降低支出，即大约花费每个纳税人每年2200美元，这个数字抵消了特朗普的减税。
To fund that shortfall, the U.S. will cut back on infrastructure maintenance. At least one-third of this country will end up looking like — forgive the colloquial phrase — “a dump.” The racial wealth gap will not be narrowed.
为了填补这一缺口，美国将削减基础设施维护。这个国家将至少有三分之一的地方最终看起来像个「垃圾场」（请原谅我如此直白）。种族财富差距将不会缩小。
Aging and entitlements will force the president, whether Democratic or Republican, to look for a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. The spending cuts will diminish the range of the military, and the tax hikes will ensure that economic growth doesn’t pick up. The integrity of Medicare and Social Security will be (mostly) protected, but the U.S. will lose the ability to project power around the globe.
老龄化和福利将迫使总统（无论是民主党还是共和党人）去寻求削减开支和增加税收的组合拳。削减开支将削弱军事力量，而增加税收将确保经济无法增长。医疗保险和社会保障的完整性将（基本上）受到保护，但是美国将失去在全球范围内投射力量的能力。
Over a period of less than five years, China will retake Taiwan and also bring much of East and Southeast Asia into a much tighter sphere of influence. Turkey and Saudi Arabia will build nuclear weapons and become dominant players in their regions. Russia will continue to nibble at the borders of neighboring states, including Latvia and Estonia, and NATO will lose its credibility, except for a few bilateral relationships, such as with the U.K. Parts of Eastern Europe will return to fascism. NAFTA will exist on paper, but it will be under perpetual renegotiation and hemispheric relations will fray.
在不到5年的时间里，中国将重新夺回台湾，并将东亚和东南亚的大部分地区带入其紧密的势力范围内。土耳其和沙特阿拉伯将建造核武器，并成为其所在区域的主导力量。俄罗斯将继续蚕食其邻国的边界，包括拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚。而至于北约将名存实亡，仅保留一些诸如与英国的双边关系。东欧部分国家将重返法西斯主义。北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）将流于纸面上，不断面临重新谈判，北半球的关系将处于龃龉之中。
One area of major technological advance will be drugs, and I don’t mean beneficial pharmaceuticals. The opioid crisis eventually will subside, but new waves of ever more powerful addictive substances will arise. Easy home lab production will make interdiction at the border fruitless. More than 80,000 Americans already die from alcohol every year, and more than 60,000 from drug overdoses. Total losses from addiction will rise.
重大技术进步的一个领域将是药物方面，我不是指有益的药物。阿片类药物危机最终会消退，但是更易成瘾的物质将会不断涌现。家庭实验室即可轻松生产，这将使得边境拦截变得徒劳无功。在美国，每年有超过8万人死于酒精，超过6万人死于药物过量。药物成瘾带来的总损失将继续上升。
Other technologies will indeed provide a bounty, but not all of it will be positive. Artificial intelligence and facial and gait surveillance will lead to unprecedented invasions of privacy, causing another 1 or 2 percent of Americans to decide to “live off the grid.” The impact of assassin drones will be curbed — by filling the skies with police drones. Public crimes will plummet, but public spaces in major cities will have a depressing sameness, due to the near-total absence of spontaneous behavior. Advances in recording technologies will make most conversations in public, and many in private, remarkably bland.
其他的技术依旧会带来便利，但并不是所有的技术都是积极的。人工智能、面部与步态监测，将使个人隐私遭到前所未有的侵犯，导致另外1%或2%的美国人决定「断网生活」。无人机刺杀的影响将得到遏制--代价是警用无人机将布满整个天空。公共场所犯罪会直线下降，但人们几乎无法拥有自主性活动，主要城市的公共场所将呈现出令人沮丧的千篇一律。监控记录的进步将使得大多数公共场合，以及许多私下场合，人们的之间谈话变得空洞乏味。
Driverless cars will be “the next big thing,” but they’ll make roads more crowded. The elderly will insist on their driverless car rights, and defeat economists’ proposals for new congestion charges. Americans will spend another hour a day in their cars, although texting and watching TV, rather than driving.
无人驾驶汽车将成为「下一个大事件」，但亦会使道路愈加拥堵。老年人将坚持他们无人车上路的权利，并挫败经济学家提出的新的拥堵费的提议。美国人每天将会额外花费一个小时在车上，发短信和看电视，而不是驾驶汽车。
The very worst fears about climate change won’t come true. But a nagging succession of storms, plus required adjustments along the coasts to accommodate a rise in sea level, will eat up about 0.5 percent worth of economic growth. So when America does occasionally approach 3 percent growth, in terms of living standards it may feel more like 2 percent.
对于气候变化的最大担忧不会成真。但是接连不断令人心悸的暴风雨，加上沿海地区为了适应海平面的上升所需的调整，将会吞噬掉大约0.5%的经济增长。因此，当美国间或实现3%的经济增长时，就生活水平而言，可能感觉更像是只有2%。
Shall I present my own petty gripes? Due to the limited selection on Netflix streaming, fewer and fewer people will watch the great movies of the past, thereby neutering the durability of the 20th century’s greatest art form. And live performances of classical music — another of the West’s most significant and beautiful achievements — will cease to be regular in all but a few major U.S. cities.
我是不是应该提出自己的一点小小抱怨？由于 Netflix 等流媒体的选择范围有限，越来越少的人会观看过去的优秀电影，从而削弱了电影这种20世纪最伟大的艺术形式的持久性。至于古典音乐的现场演出（另一项西方最重要最美好的成就），除了少数几个美国大城市外，其他地区都不再是寻常可见。
So what in this description sounds so implausible? Is it that you think productivity growth will come in at 3 percent? That it will all be worth it because advances in medicine will allow us to stick around in decent form until age 135? That technological breakthroughs will extend the reach of the U.S. military further yet? That the Mars colony will be awesome?
那么，在这些描述中，那些听起来令人难以置信？你是否认为生产率会以3%的速度增长？这一切都是值得的吗？因为医学的进步会让我们以体面的状态活到135岁？这些技术突破将进一步扩大美军的势力范围？火星殖民地听起来很棒吗？
Just how lucky are you feeling?
你觉得自己会有多幸运呢？
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原文：bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-30/the-decline-and-fall-of-the-american-empire
本文基于知识共享（Creative Commons），由「清单待完成」翻译发布。
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