PMP 第11章 章节试题

1、 [单选] 在监督和控制风险时，项目经理看过月度项目绩效报告后，发现需要实施应急计划，项目经理接下来应该怎么做？
When monitoring and controlling risks, the project manager has seen the monthly project performance report and found that the contingency plan needs to be implemented. What should the project manager do next?

•  A：更新项目进度计划和预算，以配合应急计划的实施；
  Update the project schedule and budget to coincide with the implementation of the contingency plan;
•  B：提出变更请求，在应急计划实施前获得批准；
  Make a change request and get approval before the implementation of the contingency plan;
•  C：记录因实施应急计划而获得的经验教训；
  Record the lessons learned from the implementation of the contingency plan;
•  D：将实施应急计划的信息通知所有相关方。
  Inform all stakeholders about the implementation of the contingency plan.

正确答案：B 你的答案：B

解析：应急计划、弹回计划、权变措施（除紧急情况下的已授权的自动权变外）在实施前都需要经过变更控制程序，获得批准。

要变更走流程。

2、 [单选] 项目经理在海外某国实施一个技术涉密的项目，该国发生了暴乱，尽管项目经理启动了应急响应机制，升级了安保措施，但武装分子不断冲击项目现场。在来不及获得批准的情况下，项目经理下令销毁了项目机密数据，并立即组织人员撤离。这属于风险应对的哪一种？
The project manager is carrying out a project involving technical secrets in a foreign country. The country has had a riot, and the project manager has launched an emergency response mechanism to upgrade security standards, but the militants continue to hit the site. In no time to get approval, project manager ordered the destruction of the confidential data, and organize personnel to evacuate immediately. Which of these is the risk response?

•  A：应急计划
  contingency plan
•  B：弹回计划
  fallback plan
•  C：权变措施
  workaround response
•  D：减轻风险
  risk mitigation

正确答案：C 你的答案：C

解析：人命关天，涉及团队成员和相关方人生安全的风险发生时，往往项目已在章程中授权项目经理可以实施自动权变措施，不必等待批准。

自动权变：人命关天、来不及请示汇报。

3、 [单选] 客户要求项目经理提前一个月让系统上线。项目经理组织团队进行了影响分析后提出了两个变更请求，一是将自己团队不擅长的子项目M分包给更为专业的外部团队，二是申请将需要创新性研发，且不确定性很强的功能X从本项目范围中移出，上交给由技术总监负责的开发团队。项目经理分别采取的是哪种风险应对策略？
The client asked the project manager to release the system one month in advance. Project manager and team evaluated the influence, and then puts forward two change requests, one is to subcontract sub-project M to a professional external team which his team is not good at, the other, removing function X which is uncertainty and needs innovative research from the project scope, and transfer it to the development team directly lead by technical director. What is the risk response strategy for the project manager?

•  A：转移、上报
  transfer and report.
•  B：转移、减轻
  transfer and mitigation.
•  C：转移、规避
  transfer and avoid.
•  D：规避、上报
  avoid and report.

正确答案：C 你的答案：C

解析：将自己不擅长的工作外包属于典型的风险转移；把工作从范围中移出，不管交给谁做，从项目的角度都是规避了这个工作带来的风险。上报是项目经理将自己没有获得授权的决策上报给高级管理层决策。

外包、保险是转移。把工作移除是规避。

4、 [单选] 影响评分（如图）：项目团队识别出若干风险发生的概率和每个风险对成本、进度的潜在影响。这些信息已在表中显示出来，对项目而言，进度和成本的权重比为4：1。那么评级最高的风险是哪一个？
Impact scores: A project team identifies 4 risks and assesses probability of occurrence and potential impact on cost and schedule for each risk. This information is presented in the table shown. If the importance of cost ives is 4 times to project schedule. Which is the most critical risk for the project?

•  A：风险 A
  Risk A
•  B：风险 B
  Risk B
•  C：风险 C
  Risk C
•  D：风险 D
  Risk D

正确答案：D 你的答案：D

解析：进度和成本的权重比为 4：1，这说明要采用加权的风险影响与概率矩阵，（进度影响分数*进度权重 80%+成本影响分数*成本权重 20%）*风险概率，看哪个结果（风险评级）最高。

首先要注意比率：4：1.因为AC概率相同，数值C大，所以A可以忽略掉。只算BCD就行：B1.7，C1.8D1.9

要是条件改为1：1，那结果就不一样了。

5、 [单选] 项目经理正在为项目准备两个备选方案，方案1成功的概率80%，如果成功可以为项目节省100万美元，但是失败了的话要增加100万美元的成本；方案2成功的概率50%，成功的话可以节省200万美元，失败会增加100万美元的成本。那么项目经理应该推荐哪个方案？理由是？
The project manager is comparing two solutions for the project. The probability of success is 80% for solution 1. If it works it could save $1 million for the project but if it doesn't work it's going to cost you a million dollars on the project. Solution 2 has 50% probability of success success can save $2 million failure would increase the cost of $1 million. So which solution should the project manager recommend? What is the reason?

•  A：方案1 因为预期货币价值EMV比方案2多10万
  Solution 1 because the EMV of solution1 is $100000 more than the EMV of solution 2.
•  B：方案2 因为成功的话比方案1多节省100万
  Solution 2 because it can save a million more than the solution1.
•  C：方案1 因为成功的概率比方案2高30%
  Solution 1 because its probability of success is 30% higher than that of solution 2.
•  D：方案2 因为预期货币价值EMV比方案1多20万
  solution 2 because the EMV of solution2 is $200000 more than the EMV of solution 1.

正确答案：A 你的答案：A

解析：决策树，分别计算每个方案成功和失败的收益/损失*概率，省的钱就是收益，取正值；增加的钱就是损失，取负值。 最终取预期货币价值 EMV 高的方案。

方案1 EMV60W，方案2 EMV50W。

6、 [单选] 在项目预算评审会上，项目经理说以目前的预算可以完成项目的把握是75%，并解释了这是由多种风险综合影响的结果。发起人问如果将完成的概率提高到85%，需要追加多少预算？项目经理要想回答这个问题，需要用到下面哪一种技术？
At the project budget review meeting, the project manager said that with current budget the project could be completed at probability of 75% and explained that this was the result of a combination of risks. The sponsor asked how much additional budget would be required if the probability of completion increased to 85%? Which of the following techniques is needed to answer this question?

•  A：敏感性分析
  Sensitivity analysis
•  B：决策树分析
  Decision tree analysis.
•  C：趋势分析
  Trend analysis
•  D：蒙特卡洛分析
  Monte Carlo analysis.

正确答案：D 你的答案：D

解析：蒙特卡洛分析是量化风险分析的一种，通过计算机模拟每增加单位预算（如 1 万美元）对应的项目完成的概率变化，来分析预算变化与项目完成概率的关系曲线。因此有了这个曲线，就可以回答发起人，从 75%的概率提高到 85% 需要追加的预算。

讲义上有这个曲线。